Solar, wind and hydro power could soon surpass coal

[jpak]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/26/business/renewable-energy-coal/index.html

New York (CNN Business)Coal, long the king of America's electric grid, will soon get toppled by renewable energy.

Solar and wind power are growing so rapidly that for the first time ever, the United States will likely get more power in 2021 from renewable energy than from coal, according to projections from the Institute for Energy Economic and Financial Analysis.

This milestone is being driven by the gangbusters growth for solar and wind as well as the stunning collapse of coal. And it comes as the United Nations warned on Tuesday that countries are not doing enough to keep the planet's temperature from rising to near-catastrophic levels.

"The next piece of the energy transition is very close at hand," said PJ Deschenes, partner at Greentech Capital Advisors, a boutique investment bank focused on clean energy. "Coal is coming offline as fast or faster than we anticipated."

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[caraher]

1. This is more about the (necessary) decline of coal than the rise of renewables in absolute terms

Not mentioned is what is happening with natural gas and petroleum, and at what fraction of total consumption coal will equal wind, hydro and solar. While wind and solar are growing and coal is shrinking, natural gas alone is growing faster than coal is shrinking, and more than solar and wind combined. Here's a comparison of 2018 to 2016:

[Finishline42]

2. Hard to argue with the facts

But how is residential solar measured?

Utility and commercial production of energy is probably easy to get to but how do you measure what individuals are producing for their own use? There are probably figures for what is being over produced via net-metering, but is what an individuals solar system producing measured as well? Or is it just guessed at?

[caraher]

3. Livermore's data source is the EIA

You've identified a significant data challenge. The answer, I think, is that they look at installed capacity (which would be based in part on total sales of solar PV) combined with estimates of real production based on that capacity.

EIA has been reviewing and improving their estimates for these distributed and off-grid sources, as outlined in a report from 2016.

Summary

EIA's data for renewable electricity, in particular wind and solar generators, are one of the largest areas of interest among EIA data users, as well as one of the more frequent targets of criticism. Although particular details vary from source to source, several critiques have involved claims along the following lines:

* EIA data do not accurately track wind and solar generation or capacity, particularly distributed solar photovoltaics (PV)
* EIA projections "consistently" and "significantly" underestimate additions of wind and solar capacity
* EIA estimates for the cost of renewable capacity such as wind and solar are out-of-date and not representative of current market costs

In an effort to improve EIA's approach to providing accurate, comprehensive data, and useful projections for policy analysis, EIA has conducted a review of its historical data and projections of capacity, generation, and cost projections for wind and solar technologies. While EIA's internal processes and engagement with stakeholders are both continuing, this paper shares some early findings of EIA's current review of our wind and solar data and projections, focusing in part on some of the issues that have been publicly raised by EIA's critics.

The report addresses historical data and capacity and generation projections in the context of changing renewable energy markets, and addresses how EIA is responding to these evolving markets. A more detailed review of past EIA capacity and generation projections, and of actual and projected technology costs for both wind and solar is provided in the Appendix.

An online article accompanying the report summarizes their general approach and compares their results with other industry estimates of things like new solar installations:

EIA's data and projections for renewable electricity, in particular wind and solar generators, are a major topic of interest for many EIA customers. In an effort to assure that data are accurate and comprehensive, and that projections are useful for policy analysis, EIA regularly reviews its data and projections, as well as current and projected costs for wind and solar technologies.

Each edition of EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) since 2006 provides current estimates and future projections of both utility-scale and distributed generation units located at end-use customer sites (i.e., those on residential and commercial rooftops). As shown in the graphic above, EIA's current estimates for total solar PV capacity (utility-scale and distributed) in recent AEOs closely correspond to those reported by industry sources such as the Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA). Industry sources do not generally provide generation estimates.

While distributed solar PV data have been reported in the AEO for many years, until recently EIA's Electric Power Monthly (EPM) included data only for utility-scale generation sites with capacities of at least one megawatt, reflecting the coverage of EIA's monthly surveys of electric generators. However, beginning with the November 2015 Electric Power Monthly, EIA now includes data on capacity and generation of distributed solar PV units in addition to data for utility-scale systems. Data reported in the EPM include both generation and capacity by state and sector.