Dangerous levels of warming locked in by planned jump in fossil fuels output
Global governments plan to produce 120 percent more fossil fuels by 2030, drastically at odds with the 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) warming limit they all agreed to under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. All major fossil fuel-producing nationsincluding the United States, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Canada, and Australiahave ambitious plans to increase production, according to a new report by leading research organizations and the United Nations.
Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use totaled 37.1 billion tonnes in 2018, a new record. Substantially reducing those emissions will never happen without reducing fossil fuel production, says Michael Lazarus, a lead author of The Production Gap Report and the director of Stockholm Environment Institutes U.S. Center.
Using publicly-available government documents, the report found that countries plans to increase production of coal, oil, and gas amounts to 120 percent more in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 2.7 degrees F. Those plans include producing 280 percent more coal. That puts the world on a path that could exceed 5.4 degrees F (3 degrees C) of warming, says Lazarus.
This report shows, for the first time, just how big the disconnect is between Paris temperature goals and countries plans and policies for coal, oil, and gas production, Lazarus says. Even countries claiming to be climate leaders like Canada and Norway say they want to maximize their fossil fuel exports, he said in an interview.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/world-fossil-fuel-production-rise-guarantees-missing-paris-climate-goals/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=Science_20191127&rid=FB26C926963C5C9490D08EC70E179424