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Mon Feb 3, 2020, 07:13 PM

Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don't Know Why

Last edited Mon Feb 3, 2020, 08:59 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/climate-models-are-running-red-hot-and-scientists-don-e2-80-99t-know-why/ar-BBZAZWf

The model run by NCAR, one of American’s main climate-science institutions, started producing unusual data last year while trying to reproduce the recent past. “We got some really strange results,” Gettelman said.

The scientists went on to try 300 configurations of rain, pollution, and heat flows—something they can do as gods of their own digital earth—before matching the model to history. But by solving that puzzle, Gettelman’s team sent future projections upward at an unheard-of rate. NCAR found that CO₂ doubling would lead to 5.3°C world, a 33% jump from the model’s past reading on global warming.

Soon there were multiple teams at other institutions putting out new climate-sensitivity numbers that looked like worst-case scenarios on steroids. The Met Office Hadley Center, the U.K.’s main research group, found a doubling of CO₂ would deliver 5.5°C warming. A team at the U.S. Department of Energy ended up with 5.3°C, and the Canadian model topped out at 5.6°C. France’s National Center for Meteorological Research saw its estimate jump to 4.9°C from 3.3°C.

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Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply Climate Models Are Running Red Hot, and Scientists Don't Know Why (Original post)
NickB79 Feb 2020 OP
Control-Z Feb 2020 #1
I_UndergroundPanther Feb 2020 #2
cilla4progress Feb 2020 #3
sdfernando Feb 2020 #4
Cartoonist Feb 2020 #5
pansypoo53219 Feb 2020 #6
Forever Blue Feb 2020 #7

Response to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 07:16 PM

1. So sad. So frightening.

Still they deny. FUCK.

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Response to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 07:20 PM

2. We are fucked

I just hate that the rest of the planet has to die because of the denial, corporate bullshit,and the selfish ignorance of humanity.

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Response to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 07:31 PM

3. 74 in Denver

over the weekend.

We've been having rain instead of snow at 1500 ft. in the Cascades.

Good bye to winter.

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Response to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 07:40 PM

4. I can tell you why...I don't need the scientist at this point

We are FUCKED!...thats why!

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Response to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 08:15 PM

5. I had a fun time misreading your title

I thought you were talking about runway models, the fashion kind. I'd love to see them running red hot. Tough luck for those scientists if they can't figure it out.

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Response to NickB79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 3, 2020, 08:54 PM

6. a pbs doc on the arctic sea ice showed how the melt speeds up.

so thank the fossil fuel companies for paying people to deny it for decades. we knew this in the 50's. humans are stupid.

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Response to NickB79 (Original post)

Tue Feb 4, 2020, 08:25 PM

7. David Wasdell had an interesting paper in Sept. 2014, ...

that challenged the IPCC and AR5 policy makers summary suggesting the models were off base and the carbon budget was non existent; when the Hadley sensitivity, Hansens ice sheet albedo feedbacks, and all earth system feed backs were all added in. Link is below for those interested, pay special attention to the graph on page 11. In the following pages it is clearly demonstrated a doubling of atmospheric carbon will result in a much higher warming than illustrated in the IPCC models in AR5.

Wasdell has been consistent in his research and message since the early 2000´s and a critic of the politicization of the IPCC and the dilution of the reported science.

http://www.apollo-gaia.org/Beyond%20the%20Summit.pdf

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