Penn State Study Shows Huge Shifts For Corn Belt, Other Key American Croplands w/i 50 Years

[hatrack]

The best climate conditions for corn are expected to move north over the next 44 years. The darkest shade of purple is where temperature and precipitation align to provide the best weather for corn — for example, from northern Ohio west through parts of Indiana, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, among other states. In the projected 2064 panel, the best combination of precipitation and temperature becomes narrower and moves north from current conditions. Kemanian Research/Pennsylvania State University

Farmers have been warned for years that climate change will disrupt growing conditions and crop yields. Pennsylvania State University researchers released findings this week suggesting those changes could come within the lifetimes of many current farmers and that warming could have major implications for the Corn Belt, the heart of the U.S. agricultural economy.

Moreover, the research shows the core Corn Belt states may no longer represent the center of American corn and soybean production, and that more suitable conditions for the commodity crops may shift northward from Illinois and Iowa to Minnesota and the Dakotas. The researchers conclude that such a shift "is in progress, and there is a strong probability it will continue," according to an analysis published in Environmental Research Letters.

The study, which relies on advanced modeling using artificial intelligence and machine learning, does not conclude that corn and soybean production will cease in traditional growing regions of the Midwest. Rather, it signals that farmers will need to adapt to changing conditions over the next several decades.

"We're not suggesting that such a shift would be a catastrophe," said Armen Kemanian, associate professor of production systems and modeling at Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences. "The changes are likely to be gradual, and farmers and the supply chain should be able to adapt. But things will change." Farmers already besieged by extreme weather and economic strain may need to adopt farming practices and other adaptive measures. They might plant two crops in a year, for example, or grow a greater diversity of crops instead of the long-standing practice of rotating between corn and soybeans, the researchers said.

EDIT

https://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2020/05/20/stories/1063180969

[JDC]

1. Interesting. I'd like to see how that shift works itself into

WY and MT. It's a clear up and to the left trend.