Tropical Storm Paulette Forms, Earliest P-Named Storm On Record

[hatrack]

The 2020 parade of record-early named storms in the Atlantic continued on Monday, September 7, with the formation of Tropical Storm Paulette in the central Atlantic. Paulette has been joined by Tropical Depression 18 (TD 18) in the eastern Atlantic, which will likely become Tropical Storm Rene later on Monday. Neither storm is on a track that poses a long-range threat to the Caribbean or U.S.

A west-northwest to northwest track into the central Atlantic

Steering currents will carry both Paulette and TD 18 to the west-northwest or northwest during the week. This will put them into the central Atlantic in a location where few tropical cyclones ever go on to make a landfall in the Caribbean or the U.S., making them excellent candidates to be “fish” storms – tropical cyclones primarily of concern to shipping, with no impact on any land areas. There are two exceptions: TD 18 may bring tropical storm conditions to the Cabo Verde islands on Monday evening through Tuesday, and Paulette could affect Bermuda by the middle of next week.

It is likely that as Paulette gets stronger, it will move farther north, where strong winds of an upper-level trough expected to form north of Puerto Rico later this week will have a greater influence on a stronger storm. This trough is also likely to bring higher wind shear, weakening Paulette.

EDIT

With three days to go until the typical September 10 frequency peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, we’ve already had 16 named storms, five hurricanes, and one intense hurricane. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the averages for this point in the season are six named storms, three hurricanes, and one intense hurricane. Paulette’s arrival on September 7 marks the earliest date, in records going back to 1851, that any Atlantic season has produced its sixteenth tropical storm, topping the record held by Philippe from September 17, 2005. Only five more names remain on the 2020 Atlantic list: Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. TD 18 is likely to become Tropical Storm Rene later on Monday; the record for earliest-forming “R” storm in the Atlantic is September 18, 2005 (Rita).

EDIT

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/tropical-storm-paulette-forms-in-atlantic-earliest-p-named-storm-on-record/

[OnlinePoker]

1. And another tropical wave coming off Africa this week

80% chance right now it will be a tropical depression within 5 days. Pre-season predictions said this was going to be a busy year and it looks like that was correct.