Heads Up! TD 19 Now Projected As Hurricane W. Landfall Near New Orleans On Tuesday

[hatrack]

Can't repost the freaking track imagery, but it's linked at the bottom

523
WTNT34 KNHC 121459
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and
storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and
then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight, and continue to intensify Sunday and
Monday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical-
storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the
Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida
coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce
flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high
flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3
to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4
inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and
southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system
that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next
week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and
minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



EDIT

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150347.shtml?cone#contents

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/121459.shtml?

[Leghorn21]

1. Dammit to hell, out of nowhere

I was sort of kidding last night when I said looks kinda like a drunk Andrew
Oh man, this so not cool

[hatrack]

2. How did you get that PNG to display?

Is it because I'm using Firefox?

Thanks!

[Leghorn21]

3. Oh, I have no idea, hatrack!! I just send it to photos and then go to "postimage" and copy it and

voila! I don’t know how it works though, for sure!!

Meanwhile, my old pal Tracy is headed to NOLA tomorrow after holing up in NC for 4 months - I’d just as soon she not be greeting with any storm bigger than an “isolated rain shower”!!

[hatrack]

4. Ah! An end-run . . .

Thanks for the tip!

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. I think its the plus sign in the NOAA URL that causes the problem - use %2B in its place

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT19/refresh/AL192020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/095214_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

becomes

...AL192020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind%2Bpng...



other symbols that can cause problems in DU links or images, and what they can usually be replaced with:

( %28
) %29
: %3A
; %3B

[drthais]

5. If the track holds

which many times it does not, but shifts a bit;

it will come in east of New Orleans, on the Mississippi coast.
This puts us on the west side of the storm
which is the side you want to be on.

The worst winds and rains are on the east side, generally NE.
So I'm hoping (for us) it takes this turn shown in the graph

I'm just north of Baton Rouge