Arctic Ocean Failing To Refreeze In Late October; Laptev Sea, "Ice Nursery", Almost Completely Open

[hatrack]

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The delayed annual freeze in the Laptev Sea has been caused by freakishly protracted warmth in northern Russia and the intrusion of Atlantic waters, say climate scientists who warn of possible knock-on effects across the polar region.

Ocean temperatures in the area recently climbed to more than 5C above average, following a record breaking heatwave and the unusually early decline of last winter’s sea ice.

The trapped heat takes a long time to dissipate into the atmosphere, even at this time of the year when the sun creeps above the horizon for little more than an hour or two each day.

Graphs of sea-ice extent in the Laptev Sea, which usually show a healthy seasonal pulse, appear to have flat-lined. As a result, there is a record amount of open sea in the Arctic.

EDIT

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/alarm-as-arctic-sea-ice-not-yet-freezing-at-latest-date-on-record/ar-BB1ai0fd

If we lose the Arctic, we lose the whole world. President Niinistö of Finland

There is a record open ocean in the Arctic as a delayed freeze in sea ice formation due to record-shattering heat in the Laptev Sea. Siberia has been freakishly hot recently, resulting in the loss of bone-chilling winds from the Siberian landmass that would be freezing the sea at this point. Additionally, warm Atlantic waters have infiltrated into the Arctic, undermining the pack ice even further.

The heat is a direct result of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, there will be consequences of Arctic amplification resulting in continuous feedbacks that melt the ice caps and Arctic permafrost.

Zack Labe of Colorado State University describes the lack of “lack of freeze-up so far this fall is unprecedented in the Siberian Arctic region.” Labbe notes the changes in the Arctic are inline with a warming climate.

EDIT

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/23/1985441/-Arctic-sea-ice-nursery-in-the-Laptev-sea-has-not-frozen-breaking-records-for-the-latest-formation

[Binkie The Clown]

1. Basic physics says...

once the ice is gone the water temperature will spike up very quickly, insuring that the ice never returns. At least not our lifetimes, or the lifetimes of our great grandchildren.

Try this experiment. Put a pan full of water and ice on a very, very low heat source. Something way less than the stove top simmer. More like a tiny night light under the pan. Put a thermometer in the water and chart the water temperature. It will stay at 32 F for a very long time; as long as there is any appreciable amount of ice left. But once the ice is gone and the phase transition is complete, the water temp will quite suddenly start rising. It won't hit boiling with such a tiny heat source, but it will get "tropical" warm after a surprisingly short period of time.

For more info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Specific_heat_capacity

[Doodley]

3. And you can't prevent the melting of the ice, simply by removing the additional heat source. The ice

will carry on melting. Our ice will carry on melting, even if humans completely stopped throwing up greenhouse gases.

[Doodley]

2. I don't know if this is a climate change indicator. It's a climate change event. It's not just a

data point. It's happening.

[hatrack]

4. I think of it as the climate change event horizon . . .

. . . but that's just me.

[OnlinePoker]

5. Arctic surface air temperature is 4.5c above average for this time of year

All that open water is dumping a massive amount of extra heat into the atmosphere. The temperature may be below freezing, but not by enough.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom