CO2 Decline From COVID "A Drop In The Ocean"; Rebound A Near Certainty And The Only Question Is When
Greenhouse gas emissions, which plunged by a record amount this year because of the coronavirus pandemic, are set to rebound next year as restrictions are lifted further and governments strive to return their economies to growth, according to a global study. The UK showed the second biggest fall in emissions globally, down 13% for the year compared with 2019, with only France showing a larger drop, of 15%. The plunge reflects the prolonged and severe lockdowns in both countries, with surface transport particularly affected.
The record 7% global fall in carbon of 2.4bn tonnes reduced emissions from fossil fuels to about 34bn tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2020, according to the Global Carbon Budget report, the most comprehensive analysis of the world’s carbon output, published on Friday.
But a rebound next year is almost certain, according to the scientists behind the study, because the drop was the result of temporary behavioural changes rather than structural reforms. China’s emissions may even be level for this year or have increased slightly since 2019, as the country entered and left lockdown sooner than other countries, according to some of the data that fed into the final assessment.
Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, who contributed to the analysis, said: “It is clear that emissions are edging back to 2019 levels already, but it is too early to say what the rebound will be in 2021. Whether they come back to 2019 levels or peak even higher – the economic stimulus packages will make a difference.”
EDIT
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/11/rebound-in-carbon-emissions-expected-in-2021-after-fall-caused-by-covid
