"Little Sign Of The Change Needed" On Emissions In China's Newest 5-Year Economic Plan

[hatrack]

China has set out an economic blueprint for the next five years that could lead to a strong rise in greenhouse gas emissions if further action is not taken to meet the country’s long-term goals. The 14th five-year plan, published in Beijing on Friday, gave few details on how the world’s biggest emitter would meet its target of reaching net zero emissions by 2060, set out by President Xi Jinping last year, and of ensuring that carbon dioxide output peaks before 2030.

China will reduce its “emissions intensity” – the amount of CO2 produced per unit of GDP – by 18% over the period 2021 to 2025, but this target is in line with previous trends, and could lead to emissions continuing to increase by 1% a year or more. Non-fossil fuel energy is targeted to make up 20% of China’s energy mix, leaving plenty of room for further expansion of the country’s coal industry.

Swithin Lui, of the Climate Action Tracker and NewClimate Institute, said: “[This is] underwhelming and shows little sign of a concerted switch away from a future coal lock-in. There is little sign of the change needed [to meet net zero].”

Zhang Shuwei, chief economist at Draworld Environment Research Centre, said: “As the first five-year plan after China committed to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, the 14th five-year plan was expected to demonstrate strong climate ambition. However, the draft plan presented does not seem to meet the expectations. The international community expected China’s climate policy to ‘jump’, but in reality it is still crawling.”

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/05/china-five-year-plan-emissions

[Irish_Dem]

1. China could dramatically decrease emissions in a short period of time if it wanted to do so.

One advantage of an authoritarian regime, they can move quickly and efficiently.

[NickB79]

2. Coal mining employs millions of Chinese

Most of them in rural areas and without the education to easily get new jobs.

The Chinese government values stability, and millions of angry, unemployed men could jeopardize that.

[Irish_Dem]

3. China has the largest army in the world, they could easily put down the coal farmers if they had to.

China can be quite ruthless.

On the other hand, China has been undergoing enormous societal change for the last 15 yrs. It is not stable
but in a good way. Enormous societal change every year.

China is doing a much better job feeding people, and giving them a more middle class life.
The government is less intrusive. People are much happier and healthier than in past years.

Even the rural areas are now more modern and prosperous. China is even importing women from other countries for the farmers to marry. Times are better for the average person in China than in quite a long time.

I don't see a large revolution at this time.