The Shitty, Unregulated TX Power Grid Failed In Extreme Cold: What Will Extreme Heat Bring?
Electricity outages in Texas could occur again this summer — just a few months after the devastating winter storm that left millions of Texans without power for days — if the state experiences a severe heat wave or drought combined with high demand for power, according to recent assessments by the state’s grid operator. Experts and company executives are warning that the power grid that covers most of the state is at risk of another crisis this summer, when demand for electricity typically peaks as homes and businesses crank up air conditioning to ride out the Texas heat. Texas is likely to see a hotter and drier summer than normal this year, according to an April climate outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and 2021 is very likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record globally.
“This summer, I am as worried right now [about the grid] as I was coming into this winter,” said Curt Morgan, CEO of Vistra Corp., an Irving-based power company. “Sounds like I’m the boy that cries wolf, but I’m not. I’ve seen this stuff repeat itself. We can have the same event happen if we don’t fix this.” As state lawmakers continue debating how to improve the grid after February’s storm nearly caused its collapse, on Tuesday Texans were asked to conserve electricity because the supply of power could barely keep up with demand. A significant chunk of the grid’s power plants were offline due to maintenance this week, some a result of damage from the winter storm.
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John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist and director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies, said that this summer in Texas is shaping up to be hot and dry. While it’s still early, he said temperatures this summer will depend on how much rain the state gets between now and June. Parts of the state — South Texas to far West Texas — have been in drought conditions for more than a year, he said. “Temperatures during the summer depend a lot on how much rain there has been over the preceding several months,” he said. “It’s been fairly dry this past fall and winter and spring so far.”
When heat waves hit large swaths of the state, that puts stress on the grid. “In 2011, for example, most of the summer was a heat wave,” Nielsen-Gammon said. That was the driest year on record in Texas, and what ERCOT based its extreme scenarios on this year. That summer, ERCOT took emergency precautions, but widespread outages did not occur.
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https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/15/texas-ercot-blackouts-summer-climate/
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It was a beautiful mild day. It was explained afterwards that many plants are down for planned maintenance right now, and that ERCOT made a mistake in its forecast, but still. My first reaction when I heard the request to conserve was to wonder what the summer is going to be like.
