Colorado Basin Snowpack Update: Not Looking Good - Snowpack Peaked 10 Days Early, Soils Parched

[hatrack]

EDIT

The snowpack picture seemed promising at times in recent months, especially in February when several storms unloaded hefty snows. Even now, some late season snow in the northern part of the basin is working in some extra credit. But it’s not enough. At the headwaters of the Colorado River, the snowpack peaked on April 2, about 10 days ahead of average. Since then, more than two inches of water have melted. In fact, since the beginning of April, the majority of stations in the upper Colorado River basin have seen melt rates between 2 and 6 inches. When the snowpack peaks and melts early it often portends a lower water supply during the dry season.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=916
The progression of snow water equivalent, an indicator of snowpack, in 2021 in the Colorado River Basin compared to other years. (Natural Resources Conservation Service)

Indeed, throughout the entire Colorado River Basin, snowpack values peaked at levels well below average. From the Upper Green Basin in Wyoming and south through Utah and Colorado, many locations peaked in the bottom 25th percentile.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=916
Snow water equivalent percentiles, an indicator of snowpack, as of early April (Natural Resources Conservation Service)

Soils: F

Soils have been the problem child since the very beginning of the water season, when the summer-fall monsoon was essentially a no-show. If the monsoon had provided the needed moisture in June-September to the lower part of the basin and the southern portion of the upper basin, healthy soils would have been locked in during the cold season. But without the monsoon moisture, the basin went into the snowy part of the season with dry soil, essentially saddling the water supply with a debt that is far from being repaid.

Streams: D

Stream flow data doesn’t look too bad at the moment. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the percent of the upper part of the basin observing near normal flow conditions has actually increased from 21 percent to 42 percent. But don’t let that deceive you. Late in the water season, streams often appear to be doing better than they actually are. So, what’s happening?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=&w=916

Check out the hydrograph (above) from the Colorado River at the Colorado-Utah state line. The black line shows the average flow in recent months, compared with historical values (indicated by the colored shading). Back at the beginning of March, flows were in the brown shading, ranking in the bottom 10th percentile. More recently, you can see that flows have bumped up to the yellow category, slightly improved from the brown. But this bump is mainly due to an early rise toward the peak. That early rise has been kicked off by early melting of the snow. The “improvement” is only an artifact of the early snow melt and will not be sustained.

EDIT

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/16/colorado-water-basin-snowpack-drought/

[OnlinePoker]

1. Lake Powell is 35 1/2 feet lower than the same date last year.

Snow pack above the lake is only 69% of average.

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

[hatrack]

2. Yeah, they're flirting with 2005 territory

And they're at about 35% and change for reservoir content.

[OnlinePoker]

4. By this time in 2005, it was already putting up positive numbers.

It finished the year above the 3600 ft level. I'd be surprised if we see much of a positive spurt this year at all with the low snow pack. And, since Lake Mead is reliant on Lake Powell releasing enough water, that's going to get really ugly this year as well.

http://lakepowell.water-data.com/index2.php?as_of=2005-04-16
http://lakemead.water-data.com/

[Laffy Kat]

3. I was afraid of that.

It may be a dry summer.

[mountain grammy]

5. Yep, I see it all around me..

Weirdest spring ever.. doesn't seem to be any runoff yet but the snow is rapidly disappearing. Had a few inches in the last 4 days, but it's the drop in the bucket.

Now the big fear is heavy rains bringing the fire debris down the mountainsides and into the creeks and streams.
Good lawd!!!! what a mess. As for me, I'm ready to sell out at a stupidly inflated price and move on and take my inflated profits to New Mexico where I can vote for Duhneece..