Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumOf course, we're all going to live in an EV nirvana so there's no need to read this paper.
The paper is: Uncertain Future of American Lithium: A Perspective until 2050 (Alessio Miatto, Paul Wolfram, Barbara K. Reck, and Thomas E. Graedel Environmental Science & Technology 2021 55 (23), 16184-16194)
The paper has four lithium supply scenarios, the two of which sound like something I know being these:
The Adaptation Challenges scenario is developed upon SSP4, in which affluent countries invest in environmental protection programs but international cooperation is minimal, leaving each country to solve its own problems. Countries like the United States have enough expenditure capacity to support the adoption of EVs and clean energy grids, but on a global scale, the adoption of low-carbon solutions is inconsistent and insufficient to meet the climate change goals. Lithium use and associated new technologies grow in wealthy countries, but lithium recycling is not sought after because mining and associated environmental impacts occur in other countries.
2.1.4. Lithium Scenario 4: Fossil Fuel Everything
This scenario is built upon SSP5, in which nonrenewable energy sources dominate future demand. There are little to no incentives to promote the adoption of electric vehicles. Lithium use grows moderately, pushed by affluent environmentally conscious citizens rather than public policies. Lithium recycling is neglected because of the modest sales numbers of EVs and PVs with energy storage systems.
Don't worry, be happy. They'll be plenty of lithium and plenty of cobalt and nickel too, not only to build billions of Tesla cars to drive to Space X platforms for trips to the moon as well as to build that pile of batteries the size of Mount Whitney in California in order to cover those periods, of which many have occurred in recent weeks, where all the wind turbines in California spread over thousands of square miles can't produce as much energy as Diablo Canyon produces on 12 acres of land.
Enjoy the workweek.
Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)are all converting to an electric future.
Lithium cobalt nickel, not rare earth, rather common, theres plenty.
Pile of batteries? Have you ever seen a wrecking yard? They are all over the place.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)Eko
(9,974 posts)Nice.
Eko
(9,974 posts)No one has said we are going to live in a EV nirvana.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)However, I have no interest whatsoever on sloppy rhetoric from people who selectively pretend to understand logical fallacies while piling them on, day after day after year after year, decade after decade on as we race toward 422 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere in 2022 ppm.
It is unsurprising that one would claim to use the term "no one" as if to speak for everyone, particularly when one has a demonstrated narrow education and focus.
Eko
(9,974 posts)Ok, if someone has said it then show it. The burden of proof is on the one making the claim.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)...were facts, not that this stops anyone from doing so.
The title stands. Anyone who objects to is free to ignore my comments and do what turns them on, like say reading The Daily Mirror.
If someone is really interested in references, the could open the link in the OP. In lieu of this, they can simply whine in a puerile fashion.
Eko
(9,974 posts)Wouldn't expect anything less from you.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)Last edited Mon Dec 13, 2021, 10:17 PM - Edit history (1)
I'm less inclined to value your personal remarks about me than you apparently are.
I'm very sorry to report that I am immune from worrying about the opinions of me held by people for whom I have zero intellectual, ethical, or educational respect.
I have no idea why these types follow me around, whining about me. I can only assume their lives are rather dull and uninteresting.
It shows, believe me.
Dullards are almost always dull, to frame a tautology.
Eko
(9,974 posts)jeffreyi
(2,568 posts)Of course, everyone knows "there's nothing out there."
Except a lot of irreplaceable rare creatures, vegetation, and beauty. Kiss off desert tortoises and sage grouse. On our public lands. All for what. "Green" b.s., that isn't green, and does not reduce any CO2 levels. It's heartbreaking. Most people today are from cities and populated areas and have no clue or appreciation of what we are losing. In the meantime, use those lithium batteries for everything! There's no way to recycle them. Or the windmill blades. So obliterate vast helpless landscapes and their ecosystems instead. Unfortunately, the Biden admin is on board with this and this is where I part company with them.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)He "traded" Glen Canyon for the Grand Canyon in the 1960s.
He didn't own Glen Canyon - it belonged to humanity, and of course, the creatures that lived there - but he felt fine trading it nevertheless.
And then there's John Muir and the Hetch Hetchy, another battle lost.
And yes, there was a proposal to turn the Grand Canyon into another Lake Powell. I'm glad we saved the Grand Canyon, but...but...but...
Now of course, today the Colorado River is not merely wounded; it's dying. The reason is climate change. One reason for climate change is all the years wasted on a reactionary effort to return to so called "renewable energy," centuries after humanity abandoned it for a reason. It wasted time; it wasted money; and much destruction resulted.
I can't say I entirely fault President Biden for this state of affairs. In the 19 years I've been writing here, among my fellow Democrats there's been a great deal of enthusiasm for mining coal just so long as the coal goes into making steel for wind turbine posts. I don't see how President Biden could say that he opposes wind energy.
I'm fine saying it; I'm not sure he could.
Wind power, and for that matter, solar power, is the Ivermectin of climate change.
There has been visceral hatred of nuclear energy on the left; our answer, on the left, to creationism on their side, the right, and of course, now, their loony anti-vax movement that really reminds me of the anti-nuclear movement.
Now I see dunderhead anti-nukes trying to tell me they're not anti-nukes. They apparently think I'm as stupid as they have been for decades.
There's very little Schadenfreude here on my part; the future of my family is every bit as threatened as anyone else's. What has happened already is a tragedy, to be sure.
This said, some of the basic research for the so called "renewable energy" industry is not a total waste, and can be modified to fit less stupid approaches. This is particularly true of thermal solar nonsense. I often feel when reading those papers that the authors stuck "solar thermal" on the title to get grants.
I do hope we can see clearly before killing off desert tortoises and the like, trashing Nevada. I agree. It's a beautiful State, worthy of preservation.
I can see, even here, in "Renewables will save us" fantasy land, a change taking place.
The President's nuclear policy is rather enlightened I think. It looks like he's going to join the fight to save Diablo Canyon, although at this point, it's a long shot.
Frankly Biden's policies are a damned sight better than Obama's. Obama started off strong by hiring Steven Chu, but ended up, at the behest of Markey, appointing the complete idiot Gregory Jaczko to the NRC. Jaczko, like all anti-nukes doesn't give a shit how many tens and hundreds of millions of people die from air pollution if he can imagine in his trivializing little head that someone somewhere might die from radiation.
This week I loaned my son Alvin Weinberg's The First Nuclear Era. What's going on in our national labs today reminds me very much of those times. The reactors being built are not the ones I might have designed, but they all show creativity and open minds. The happiest thing for me is to see is the dream of Seikimoto's "Candle" reactors reaching commercialization. I attribute this state of affairs to President Biden's good will.
There's an outside chance the world will be saved, something of a long shot, but a chance. If it is saved, nuclear engineers will save it.
Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)hydrogen I got no problem with.
Electric and solar can perhaps be conceptualized as a transition period to nuclear and hydrogen era as fossil fuels era was to the animal muscle era.
Green energy and nuclear dont have to be mortal enemies.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)It's "transitional" to disaster. The low energy to mass ratio, as well as its dependence on the use of dangerous fossil fuels and/or batteries means it is environmentally unacceptable, since a requirement for redundant systems is inherently unsustainable.
I still can't believe people carry on about hydrogen as if it were "green." It's not green. After half a century of caterwauling about it, it is still, overwhelmingly, made from reforming dangerous natural gas. Not only that, it is more difficult to handle and store than dangerous natural gas, which is not to say handling dangerous natural gas is easy or safe.
Hydrogen is stored energy, and thus, as a consequence of the second law of thermodynamics, it wastes energy.
After 50 years of wild cheering, the solar industry has never, not once, ever, produced as much energy as nuclear energy has been producing consistently for more than 3 decades. Why would anyone declare that can "transition" to nuclear energy? It will never be as safe, as reliable, as sustainable or as affordable as nuclear energy, and its nonsense to think it is, can be, or will be.
Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)https://www.carsguide.com.au/ev/advice/electric-car-battery-recycling-explained-83200
Dont underestimate the power of innovation when there is a demand.
Windmill blade recycling needs are a huge problem?? Obliterating landscapes??
Not sure thats true at all.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)...batteries, a very challenging technical task, and neither the glib nonsense from car cultists engaging in wishful thinking, nor marketing hype from a start up, invalidates any of them.
Alexander Of Assyria
(7,839 posts)tuck into one sentence.
Nevertheless my point remains, recycling technology is in development and will be developed in the 10 to 20 years in the future when the batteries are due for disposal or replacement.
Inevitable as nuclear fusion in the future.
NNadir
(37,952 posts)Last edited Tue Dec 14, 2021, 01:26 PM - Edit history (1)
..."someday" stuff.
For me, it is "some day" now. Some day turned out to be 420 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere this April.
When I was a kid - I'm an old man - I heard all about recycling plastics, and used to drive my car to recycling centers. (In retrospect that was pretty clueless. ) How's plastic recycling working out?
Recycling is energy intensive and diffuse distributed materials in particular are the worst cases because of collection and transport issues. I've actually read tons of papers on the chemistry of recycling batteries. It may be feasible, but it's very, very, very dirty chemistry. Lithium batteries, like so called "renewable energy" are dependent on access to dangerous fossil fuels and products like solvents (including but not limited to electrolytes). There's nothing "green" about it.
For the record, I have been attending lectures at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory for something like 15 years. Every winter there's a few lectures that in sum could be titled "Progress in Fusion."
Anyone stating that fusion is inevitable is certainly unfamiliar with any of the associated technical issues.
Of course I'm familiar with hand waving and wishful thinking. I pay attention to energy issues, and wishful thinking in particular dominates well over 90% of what I hear and read.
Nonetheless in my lifetime the concentration of CO2 has risen nearly 100 ppm.
Finishline42
(1,161 posts)Sells them for less than $1k and warrants them for a year.
He finds the bad cells and replaces them. That's all it takes to make the whole pak functional again.
Autobeyours.com
BTW, he's rebuilt more than 500 Prius'. This is just one little company.
That's the thing about the battery pak for an EV - it's not a one piece battery - it's made up of individual cells - that resemble a standard flashlight battery. They don't all go bad at once.
Do you really think that when enough Tesla's hit the scrap yard that there won't be a 100 companies that find a use for the value still there?
NNadir
(37,952 posts)...as the guy who rebuilt 500 Priuses on a planet with over a billion cars:
Pyrometallurgical Technology in the Recycling of a Spent Lithium Ion Battery: Evolution and the Challenge. ( Mingxian Zhou, Bang Li, Jia Li, and Zhenming Xu, ACS ES&T Engineering 2021 1 (10), 1369-1382)
I'm sure that the same people who declared Elon Musk "green," are absolutely certain of the "green" environmental policies of wildcat "recycler" in "just one little company."
I'm sure the people praising this guy or woman in "just one little company" looked at the companies processes and they really, really, really care how the guy handles solvents, waste plastic and all the other stuff in the batteries.
Are all the world's lithium batteries being recycled as a result, or do we just have apocryphal bullshit about some wild cat somewhere doing god knows what with fairly dangerous materials? Is this received wisdom, or are there any process details?
Maybe someone should write to the authors of the paper cited in the OP and let them know their concerns expressed in their paper are invalid because some guy somewhere, just one company, has recycled 500 Priuses.
You know, I could probably recycle fuel oil in my garage. Would that be "green?"
The people who wrote the paper above in this post, the referenced paper from the primary scientific literature are referring to high temperatures.
Here's a graphic from the paper of what they call a typical lithium battery recycling furnace.

Here's a description of just one of many processes described:
Nitration roasting is also a low-temperature and highly selective roasting technology. Peng et al. (63) proposed the nitration-roasting-leaching process based on sulfation roasting. First, the SLIBs were nitrated to convert the metal components into the corresponding nitrates. Then the mixed nitrates were calcined at 250 °C for 1 h to obtain insoluble transition-metal oxides, whereas lithium remained as a nitrate due to its high decomposition temperature (∼600 °C). (64) Finally, the roasted products were separated by a water-leaching process. Some nitrogen oxides may be produced during this process, which can be recycled into nitric acid by a pressurized acid adsorption, oxidant, or catalyst. (65,66)
Compared to direct roasting, additive-assisted roasting technology has a high selectivity of Li. Whats more, the reaction temperature of this technology is generally lower than the atmosphere-assisted roasting process, which can reduce costs. In addition, because of the high-temperature environment, the reaction rate of the additive roasting method is higher than that of hydrometallurgy, which is a benefit to a large-scale disposal of SLIBs. However, this technology may risk toxic and harmful gas emissions (Cl2, NOx, SOx). These gas products may corrode the instrument and require a subsequent treatment to eliminate its environmental impact.
I'm sure, of course, that in lieu of charcoal, we could always put mirrors on a few hundred square miles of desert and recycle batteries for two to four hours a day in the nitrate roasting process.
That would be "green" wouldn't it?
This of course is the sick mentality of handwaving in lieu of understanding chemical engineering and energy engineering. How many solar thermal plants are their in the world as the Ivanpah solar aerial bird fryer? How many batteries are recycled using them? 500? 1000?
I really, really, really, really, really, really don't need a high school student's lesson on how batteries work. The scientific literature is littered with descriptions; Google scholar reports over 80,000 papers on the topic of recycling lithium batteries, many of them with detailed descriptions of their design and content, the latter not always known because some of the chemistry of electrolytes in particular are proprietary.
One size fits all though, right?
One really can't open any journal involved in industrial processes and their environmental impact without being presented with two or three, sometimes way more, papers on the subject of lithium batteries and recycling.
That's all wonderful, but they aren't recycled on any scale that has shut the cobalt mines in the Congo region. Or are they?
The cost of of so called "renewable energy" is inherently dependent on redundancy even if the assholes hyping say so called "renewable energy is "cheap." The cost of redundancy is both economic and environmental. It is a material waste to require two systems to do what one can do reliably. This is why Denmark and Germany have the highest electricity prices in the OECD.
There is also a moral cost to batteries, not that the people hyping them give a rat's ass.
To repeat: A battery is a device that wastes energy (2nd law of thermodynamics) and thus adds both cost and environmental impact to systems requiring them. That's why they have failed to address climate change, miserably, at a cost of trillions of dollars, and why, despite half a century of hype, a major glacier in Antarctica - which doesn't give a rat's ass about a wild cat Prius battery recycler - is nearing collapse, probably before this decade is out.
Couldn't care less?
It's late 2021. We broke 416 ppm concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere this week, as we surge toward 422 next April or May. Doesn't anyone ever get tired of this shit? I've been hearing it for almost half a century myself. I'm tired of it, even if the people chanting this happy talk aren't tired of it.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.