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Ongoing Outage of World's Foremost CO2 Monitoring Site is a "Serious Blow" to Climate Science.
I'm really pained by this; I log on to the Mauna Loa CO2 monitoring website very frequently, often daily.
Ongoing Outage of World’s Foremost CO2 Monitoring Site is a “Serious Blow” to Climate Science
Some excerpts:
Of all the evidence scientists have collected about our planet's health, none is more important than a long-running climate record gathered at a lonely outpost atop Hawaii's Mauna Loa volcano.
The record, gathered for more than 60 years at the storied Mauna Loa Observatory, has played a critical role in our understanding of climate change by charting the inexorable rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But now, lava flowing from the erupting volcano, has cut access and power to the site, halting this critical monitoring of climatic health.
"It's an incredibly detailed, informative record dating back to the 1950s," says Ralph Keeling, Director of the CO2 Program of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "So if you want to know how the cycling of carbon and our earth system have changed between then and today, you need that record."
With the Mauna Loa Observatory, or MLO, out of action, possibly for many weeks, experts say significant impacts to our understanding of the climate system are possible. "It's a serious blow, that's for sure," says Keeling, who oversees one of two greenhouse gas monitoring programs at the observatory.
Given the stakes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the observatory, is working on ways to restore monitoring even before the lava stops flowing, according to Keeling. (As of Dec. 8, the supply of lava had slowed, but not stopped, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.) Another possibility NOAA is working on is to find a way to obtain atmospheric CO2 samples at a suitable alternative site until the MLO can be brought back online.
These efforts are only in their early stages. And there is already a growing gap in the CO2 record. Moreover, whatever interim solution may be devised, "it won’t be the full scope of what has been done at the station," Keeling says. "So there will be long term impacts..."
...The observatory's location in the middle of the Pacific at an elevation of 11,135 feet above sea leve l isolates it from local and regional CO2 sources — factories or highly urbanized areas, for example — and allows for sampling of air that is very well mixed. (Keeling notes that CO2 emissions from the Mauna Loa volcano itself pose no significant problem because they are relatively small, and sampling operations can be flexibly scheduled to avoid times when the wind is blowing in the wrong direction.)
All of this makes for a relatively unadulterated, overall picture of what's happening with CO2 in the temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, Tans says...
...For scientists to see how this complex process plays out when anomalous climatic events like severe, widespread droughts occur, they need an accurate, continuous record of what's happening broadly in the atmosphere. With monitoring at Mauna Loa paused, it will be more challenging for scientists to discern how CO2 affects these events, and visa versa.
As Tans puts it, the gap in the Mauna Loa record "could increase the uncertainty of relationships that we can trace between CO2 and drought, precipitation, and other climate anomalies on a seasonal and annual scale..."
...In other words, MLO's sampling of CO2 represents a good average of what's happening across the temperate and boreal latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. And that's essential for scientists trying to get the final word on the give and take of CO2 between the atmosphere and plants and soils that are being hammered by climate impacts...
...Looking to the past can provide some ideas about how things might play out this time. The previous eruption, which occurred in 1984 and also paused MLO's operations, lasted about three weeks. But in that case, the access road was unaffected, according to Keeling. That made things less challenging.
The Mauna Loa eruption of 1855 began in a similar location and sent lava flows in roughly the same direction. That one lasted for six months.
The prospect of a similarly long pause in operations makes efforts to establish interim solutions all the more critical...
The record, gathered for more than 60 years at the storied Mauna Loa Observatory, has played a critical role in our understanding of climate change by charting the inexorable rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But now, lava flowing from the erupting volcano, has cut access and power to the site, halting this critical monitoring of climatic health.
"It's an incredibly detailed, informative record dating back to the 1950s," says Ralph Keeling, Director of the CO2 Program of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "So if you want to know how the cycling of carbon and our earth system have changed between then and today, you need that record."
With the Mauna Loa Observatory, or MLO, out of action, possibly for many weeks, experts say significant impacts to our understanding of the climate system are possible. "It's a serious blow, that's for sure," says Keeling, who oversees one of two greenhouse gas monitoring programs at the observatory.
Given the stakes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the observatory, is working on ways to restore monitoring even before the lava stops flowing, according to Keeling. (As of Dec. 8, the supply of lava had slowed, but not stopped, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.) Another possibility NOAA is working on is to find a way to obtain atmospheric CO2 samples at a suitable alternative site until the MLO can be brought back online.
These efforts are only in their early stages. And there is already a growing gap in the CO2 record. Moreover, whatever interim solution may be devised, "it won’t be the full scope of what has been done at the station," Keeling says. "So there will be long term impacts..."
...The observatory's location in the middle of the Pacific at an elevation of 11,135 feet above sea leve l isolates it from local and regional CO2 sources — factories or highly urbanized areas, for example — and allows for sampling of air that is very well mixed. (Keeling notes that CO2 emissions from the Mauna Loa volcano itself pose no significant problem because they are relatively small, and sampling operations can be flexibly scheduled to avoid times when the wind is blowing in the wrong direction.)
All of this makes for a relatively unadulterated, overall picture of what's happening with CO2 in the temperate latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, Tans says...
...For scientists to see how this complex process plays out when anomalous climatic events like severe, widespread droughts occur, they need an accurate, continuous record of what's happening broadly in the atmosphere. With monitoring at Mauna Loa paused, it will be more challenging for scientists to discern how CO2 affects these events, and visa versa.
As Tans puts it, the gap in the Mauna Loa record "could increase the uncertainty of relationships that we can trace between CO2 and drought, precipitation, and other climate anomalies on a seasonal and annual scale..."
...In other words, MLO's sampling of CO2 represents a good average of what's happening across the temperate and boreal latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. And that's essential for scientists trying to get the final word on the give and take of CO2 between the atmosphere and plants and soils that are being hammered by climate impacts...
...Looking to the past can provide some ideas about how things might play out this time. The previous eruption, which occurred in 1984 and also paused MLO's operations, lasted about three weeks. But in that case, the access road was unaffected, according to Keeling. That made things less challenging.
The Mauna Loa eruption of 1855 began in a similar location and sent lava flows in roughly the same direction. That one lasted for six months.
The prospect of a similarly long pause in operations makes efforts to establish interim solutions all the more critical...
This is a real bummer, and couldn't be happening at a worse time.
