Energy Management Systems for Buildings are Booming

[thecentristword]

This area of sustainability is really picking up steam. These articles are just a few examples of many that have been in the press lately.

Looks like this area of sustainability is here to stay.

Anybody have any more?

Building Energy Management Systems to Top $4 Billion in 2020 - http://www.caelusgreenroom.com/2012/05/30/sensors-and-controls-for-building-energy-management-systems-to-top-4-billion-in-2020/

Cloud-Based Services Are Transforming Building Energy Managementhttp://www.caelusgreenroom.com/2012/05/29/cloud-based-services-are-transforming-building-energy-management/

Electricity Submetering Market Will Double in Size to $1.6 Billion by 2020 - http://www.caelusgreenroom.com/2012/05/29/electricity-submetering-market-will-double-in-size-to-1-6-billion-by-2020/

Building Information Modeling Market to Reach $6.5 Billion Worldwide by 2020 - http://www.caelusgreenroom.com/2012/05/10/building-information-modeling-market-to-reach-6-5-billion-worldwide-by-2020/

[David__77]

1. This is good, but the sales contractors consistently overestimate energy savings from this....

They audit a building and calculate savings from putting controls on this or that. The estimates are often sloppy, always upwardly-biased, and seem designed to get the power savings value up high enough to where the customer thinks theyll recoup their investment in a short period of time...

[kristopher]

2. And the analysis showing that to be true is where?

I'd like to read it.

[David__77]

3. OK...

http://cgec.ucdavis.edu/ACEEE/1994-96/1996/VOL06/163.PDF

This paper shows that the bin method of estimating energy savings results in wildly inaccurate savings estimates, when checked against properly calibrated energy simulations of the same projects. While this paper shows the inaccuracy being both high and low, in my practice, I see more overestimation. That is because the analyst can tweak things or make methodological errors that would lead to a higher estimate and therefore a more attractive product from the customer perspective.

A problem in practice is that the system operator may override the energy savings settings, reducing system savings. There are all kinds of things that can go wrong, but the "clean" bin method does not account for this.

[kristopher]

4. That is quite a bit different than your first assertion.

You wrote of abuse by sales contractors - a deliberate manipulation by for profit entities that defeats the entire purpose of energy efficiency programs. I'm not disagreeing that this is a real problem, I just thought (hoped) you might have more to back it up than your personal observations.

It is really difficult to design programs that are greed-proof and i'm always interested in studies that address the problem. For example, if a state gives a homeowner rebate for, say, geothermal systems but the neighboring states do not, you'll find that the price of geothermal systems in the state with the rebate will start to climb in relation to those states with no rebate. That's why homeowner tax credits are popular; it is more difficult for a contractor to capture the value of that since it is a deferred reward.

[David__77]

5. The problem is being addressed...

It's addressed through independent measurement and verification of energy impacts by third party contractors. Also, utilities generally retain a contractor to implement their energy efficiency programs, and because there's independent evaluation, and they are often compensated based on "evaluated" energy savings, there is a built-in incentive to ensure incentives are based on accurate estimates of energy savings.

Also, the utilities aren't really concerned whether its the consumer or the supplier that is capturing upstream incentives. They are just interested in facilitating market transformation/stocking practices. I don't necessarily think that's a good idea though.

[kristopher]

6. Yes, those are interesting observations.

And what works where will depend largely on local factors. That's why I was hoping for hard data.

[David__77]

8. Well...

To be honest, much of the hard data available is proprietary and retained by the utilities and commissions. Other good sources for the minority of non-proprietary data include: http://www.calmac.org/search.asp

You'll have a very hard time seeing actual, raw primary data. There are plenty of reports, but it's hard to pick through the weeds, and to account for sensitivity of analysis model specification. If you have a specific technology and building type in mind, I might be able to point you in the right direction.

[thecentristword]

7. Excellent Conversation

Thanks folks. This is really important information to know and understand.

There is a lot of movement in this area right now, so there are a lot of things that haven't been fully thought out or vetted.