Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumA teacher/blogger on systems science and climate change
I just ran into this fellow. He definitely knows what he's talking about.
His name is Alder Stone:
PhD, Evolutionary Biology & Ecology, 1990, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
MS, Probability Theory & Mathematical Statistics, 1984, University of Memphis
MS, Biological Systematics, 1976, University of Memphis
BS, Invertebrate Biology , 1973, University of Memphis
The large majority of people addressing the issue of climate change – at least those not still in denial about it, including scientists, activists and policy makers – still assert that we can stop global heating – and thus, large-scale climate change – by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. Bill McKibben’s organization 350.org is a notable example.
But is that a fact supported by science or an unsupported assumption? To my knowledge, no one has justified that assertion with any argument based in science, especially the systems sciences, with any data or any model. It appears to be an assumption, an article of faith.
Furthermore, like Lovelock, I think that this will very likely be Earth’s largest climate change event in 55 million years with the capacity to collapse civilization as we know it and lead to a huge reduction in human population by century’s end.
Importantly, one must not focus on any single piece of evidence, but on the whole set of interrelated factors. A system-level understanding is imperative. Work toward both a rational understand and an intuitive grasp of this with multiple readings and study. I offer multiple introductory and advanced seminars and short courses designed to help anyone with any background understand our climate system and climate change more deeply via systems sciences and geophysiology, which we must do if we are to increase our adaptability and survive as a species. I am especially eager to teach these concepts to educators, students, policy makers and food growers.
He goes on to list 11 factors that must be considered when evaluating our climate problem, including: the limited number of stable climate states (basically two); tipping points; feedbacks (all positive, no negative); CO2 increase is accelerating; CO2 residence time; methane; heating lag time (hysteresis); melting ice caps; heating oceans make the algae unhappy; forests switching from CO2 sinks to sources; aerosol masking. It's a pretty complete list.
He makes the point that the IPCC models suck at feedbacks, and he sides with Lovelock on the probable severity of the outcome: a desert globe except for north of the Arctic Circle.
He offers good suggestions on personal adaptation and honest hope here:
http://alderstone3.com/?page_id=1176
He's worth a read.
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Anonymousecoview
(225 posts)Sad but true - we already have altered the planet.
How many species are gone forever?
Should we cut our losses and just prepare for the worst?
Or is there still a fight left for us to fight?
Consider the Pledge of the Rainbow Warrior (google search)...
You can find it - its just 2 pages...
Everybody loves the underdog - don't give up 
reflection
(6,286 posts)And welcome to DU! 
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Don't underestimate the resolve it will take to keep walking that path as the hard times begin to unfold.
The resolve it will take to keep walking it as your children, lovers, family, friends and neighbors, the poor, the sick and weak of a hundred nations begin to die around you. As they die from cold, hunger, thirst, disease and violence - first in the millions then in the tens and eventually the hundreds of millions - keep this pledge written on your heart. I promise you, this will be the hardest thing any of us has ever, or will ever, do. Do not try to do this alone.
Nobility has its price.
wtmusic
(39,166 posts)How could anyone survive all the Broadway musicals this will inspire? It's insane.
Anonymousecoview
(225 posts)True - too much fluffy talk is not enough. Al Gore put it nicely when he described the 904 scientific journals published between 1994 and 2004 that described global warming as a crisis caused by human activity. He said that we have the technology to return sustainability to human activity, what we need is the motivation. Any ideas to help motivate the human spirit toward our ecosystems without being overly sentimental?
I found it:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/127701471/The-Pledge-of-the-Rainbow-Warrior
pscot
(21,025 posts)I'm hoping for a more bracing, Brechtian flavor.
Anonymousecoview
(225 posts)I am working on improving on my garden each year.
Planting beans year round like the Hopi used to...
Hoping I recycle and compost enough.
My grandparents lived through the Great Depression - I believe their thriftiness and resourcefulness was a great example...
In_The_Wind
(72,300 posts)[img]
[/img]
Anonymousecoview
(225 posts)Pass it on if....(Pass it on if you can take it....)...
http://www.scribd.com/doc/127701471/The-Pledge-of-the-Rainbow-Warrior
In_The_Wind
(72,300 posts)The Pledge of the Rainbow Warrior
I(We) solemnly pledge as a Rainbow Warrior to become a motivating force led by Indigenous elders whooffer a safe passage-rite to weave human identity into the environment of Mother Earth.
As a Rainbow Warrior, I pledge to be motivated to the full extent of the human will, motivated to give upany kind of illicit luxury, motivated to postpone any licit good, and even motivated to die for the primary purpose of transferring the natural earth as an inheritance to the children of future generations.
As a Rainbow Warrior, I pledge to become learned in the knowledge and the stories of the land as itsscience and mysteries instruct humanity and all living systems into an equitable harmony.
As a Rainbow Warrior, I pledge to choose no living enemies, but to embrace the singular conflict with myinner-self for the purpose of curbing my human activities toward this ecological harmony within the Natural Law.
As a Rainbow Warrior, I pledge to become part of a Spiritual Force commissioned by the Creator and able to inspire and heal others, especially those most broken by the world-view of exploitation, with theunderstanding that no wounded warriors, no matter how hopeless their circumstances, are to be left behind.
As a Rainbow Warrior, I pledge to be inspired by the visions and dreams of the Indigenous Elders, fromevery culture of life, especially those cultures maintaining Indigenous values, and I pledge to become familiar with their dreams and prophecies and to become aware of the signs of the times.
As a Rainbow Warrior, I (We) pledge to answer this desperate call at this cross-roads of living history to join in the migration by pulling for Turtle Island, taking only what is necessary to sustain harmony with Mother Earth and leaving behind all things that might harm her capacity to nourish all living things.
As my passage-rite, as a Rainbow Warrior, I solemnly pledge to wear this banner on my heart,representing the Guardian of Ocean Migrations (the Higher Power, our Creator) to remind me to stand for my principles as a guardian and true child of Mother Earth, knowing the only way to ecologicalharmony is to weave human identity back into the natural environment.
Delphinus
(12,023 posts)I think the Pledge of the Rainbow Warrior is a bit much while we are living in an industrialized society. A hermit would have no problem; someone trying to simply survive in American culture, it's pretty extreme.
I understand the sentiments, but don't think it's really a possibility.
Anonymousecoview
(225 posts)in the Mid-west gives a person the idea that we could do anything if 3/4 of those farmers could...
wtmusic
(39,166 posts)First words out of his mouth: "We're not going to stop global warming."
I understand how this guy's spiel would be music to your ears, but if he's such a prophet why is he making a living hawking doom and gloom for Paypal donations?
I suppose tenured professorships teaching Morbid Fascination are limited.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Anyone who hawks 350ppm when the world is at 396 is a hopium dealer. IMO McKibben is intellectually dishonest and morally bankrupt. 350 is a lie, and McKibben is the head liar. Pure and simple.
There is a very limited market for hard truth in hard times. The fact that Bill McKibben is making money and Alder Stone isn't should be a sign of who is telling the truth and who is hawking bullshit.
CRH
(1,553 posts)hatrack
(60,269 posts)In fact, there's a decent chance of it in the May or June numbers.
Anonymousecoview
(225 posts)say it backwards - eeks