Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumThe "Good Old Days" have been found. They were hiding in 1970...
It's been all downhill since then...
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)There's too much information behind those graphs to give meaning to most people. But it's valuable
Another thing, percent growth is a poor indicator when the population is as large as it is now. Even 1% growth is disastrous. 1.5 million people are added every week. And all of the stuff that goes along with living a modern life, unless they're poor, in which case it's unfair to have brought them into the world.
We're seeing turbulence in the lives of human beings, as well as the climate. I would rather live in uninteresting times.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)What I found interesting was the fact that both pop and energy growth topped out at the same time. That and the fact that the growth in energy supplies always seems to be about twice the growth in people supplies.
The highest growth period in human history from many perspectives was the period from 1950 to 1970. The growth in fossil fuel supplies drive the whole thing. The implication is that if energy supplies start to fall, so will population.
I'm also fascinated by the bottom graph. It describes how that 20 year growth spurt is going to burden us for a long time due to the enormous asset base we built - one that we may shortly not have the energy to service or maintain.
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)And yes, that lower graph is quite revealing. I have been saying something to myself that I will say here. And that is, if it's mechanical, it's going to break. That, to me, sums up just about everything that is wrong with the world.
However...and this is a very interesting path...is it wrong? As an engineer, I get can get powerful results by looking at extreme conditions.
Look at the beginning. I doubt people generally suffered much. They simply died. But we were not comfortable, and we had to work for what we got. I'll confine it to physical, because this has so many branches and ramifications. We're in a cave, and trying to find warmth. Is it wrong to light a fire? And is that not where it all begins? So now we have fire. Then we learn to garden. Then we begin to invent things that are more complex in mechanical nature. And then we grow faster in population.
I mention this because right now we are not just in a time of great irritation and anxiety and disgust, but in an absolutely wonderful, prolific, inventive culmination of coordinated minds. This huge population has enabled mankind to almost literally become one mind. Genome projects, cures for diseases, etc.
Now if I look at this in the reverse direction, I see destruction on a vast scale now. I see frivolity at the cost of the very system that supports our lives. Do we continue on to some ultimate destination? Who knows where this really leads. Perhaps there is a place where none of us can imagine where this goes, which is where we were intended to go. (I'm avoiding social and religious implications, as they are potentially leaping out at us). And if so, then curbing our behavior would be counterproductive.
But if we are going too far, then if we do reverse our actions, at which point in our evolution of modernization do we return to? It is after all an equation of how many people are using resources, and what resources are being used. We can use only natural resources, at which point we're really back to where we started. It's pretty clear that this population can only be sustained unnatrually. And I've had arguments regarding what is natural with a number of very well educated people. I am not playing with semantics. A transmission is not found in nature. But a shovel can be the bark of a tree. It is natural.
It's pretty hard to exclude the religious and social aspects to this. And even as someone who follows Christian philosophy, I see no place for religion in this since no one really knows the truth. So are we happier or not? Are we healthier or not? Is our intelligence worth knowing or not? My answers tend to cause me distress, since my answers are yes. My extremely modern mountain bike gives me extreme pleasure. Watching the refined stories that are told in movies like Random Harvest, or A Tale of Two Cities, is satisfying. My hydronics are so nice compared to the years of chopping wood I did for a wood stove. It all stems from standing on the shoulders of those who thought and created and invented before us. I often think of life as a Kamikaze suicide run. Utter insanity. An unsustainable straight line. And it's a few who would like to see it sustained, against the world of those who would prefer to be comfortable and entertained.
I suppose it comes down to the question- Is there a purpose.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)The difference being that purpose is invested in the outer world, while meaning is created in the personal, inner world. I'm not much about purpose or hope any more, but I'm all about meaning. I suppose some people conflate purpose and meaning, as in, "I want to find my purpose in life," but that's just acknowledging that the purpose exists outside yourself. To me that stance seems profoundly disempowering. In contrast, if I look deep into myself, discover what it would take to make me whole, and create the meaning of my life out of that, it's profoundly empowering. This is how I live a happy, curious, engaged life even without hope. Purpose can be taken away by external forces, while meaning can't.
Humanity seems to be edging closer to chaos. In chaos there is the potential for both disaster and rebirth. It's like Schroedinger's cat - the states are superposed, and we won't know which we're going to get until we open Pandora's box and look inside (if you'll pardon a slightly transgenic metaphor).
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)I've been selling my property, and looking for something that is nicer, to put it simply. It has been very difficult for me to find what I call a home. I see people who own these insane villas. Cars and houses. I'm looking for silence and beauty. In my dream I could have the material possessions, but I couldn't have the peace and beauty. And each day I woke up unhappy, unable to go outside and enjoy life. Then I saw the past. I saw the redwood forests before they had ever been logged. I saw people living in teepees. Tents. Not villas. And each day was glorious. Each day was what most people would call effort. Survival. But that tent was better than any villa because I had enthusiasm for each day that was free of cars and jet noise and all of the irritations most people aren't even conscious of.
For me, purpose is crucial. It's why I think that the notion of moving to another planet is absurd. I believe we are integral with all that is here. The butterflies, the wind, the sunshine in it's exact proportions.
I'm profoundly affected by the external world. I don't need hope, but I do need nature. I don't need meaning, but I do need the seasons.
But something else is happening to me now. And it's recent, and I don't know quite what it is. Depending upon what happens next, you may hear about it. I'm hoping to own a farm. So my long search could be coming to an end, at which time I may discover something behind that which I feel is so important. It seems like this conversation devolved a bit. But it's interconnected. As we grow in numbers, and use resources up, and even destroy the planet, we lose the things that support life. Bees. What I came away from the dream with was that anything that moves us away from nature will not be sustainable.
lastlib
(23,302 posts)Javaman
(62,534 posts)That humanity and civilization pretty much hit it's high point around that time.
stuntcat
(12,022 posts)kidding!!!!
Actually I'm glad for this because my life is half over. Shitty as it will be watching humans wipe out so many animals the next 3 or 4 decades, at least I can be glad I won't be here in 2070. big yay!
k& r
appal_jack
(3,813 posts)So Carly Simon was right? She sang "These are the good old days," in a song titled (curiously, given this topic) "Anticipation."
Here's a video of her, for someone who missed out on the 1970's.
Since I was an early-seventies baby myself, I got to enjoy the music of the time, and the crumbs of prosperity that have dropped my way as the empire stumbles into decline...
-app