Neven; Danish Met. Institute Tracking Another Cyclonic Storm Parked Over North Pole
As usual, it's all about the if. Allow me to explain what this is about:
In the first Arctic Sea Ice update of the 2013 melting season that was posted a couple of days ago, I announced that a cyclone was forecasted to move over the Arctic Basin and stay there for a while. It's been there for a couple of days now as can be seen on this animation of Danish Meteorological Institute SLP images:
It's not particularly strong (especially not compared to GAC-2012), but it stays in the same spot for quite a while and so is bound to have some effect on the ice below. Now, according to the Naval Research Laboratory's ACNFS forecast model, this effect is quite pronounced. And to show you just how pronounced, here's their sea ice concentration animation from May 22nd, with a forecast up to June 6th:
EDIT
Basically, ACNFS is forecasting a 'hole' in the middle of the ice pack, with much lower concentration and thus overall thickness compared to the surrounding ice. I don't place a lot of trust in this particular model, but if this would come about at the start of June... Well, let's say it would be something we haven't seen before and the melting season would already be memorable before it started for real. On the other hand, more surprises shouldn't be a surprise, of course, given recent trends.
There's nothing showing up on the concentration maps (at the top of the ASIG front page) as of yet, but I've just had a peek at the LANCE-MODIS satellite images and I think I'm seeing a bit of divergence, with some open water showing up between floes. On the right you see the quadrant from which I've zoomed in on the left (click for a larger version):
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01901cc62621970b-800wi
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/05/if-this-is-real.html#more
