Quest to Mine Seawater for Lithium Advances

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/538036/quest-to-mine-seawater-for-lithium-advances/

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Quest to Mine Seawater for Lithium Advances[/font]

[font size=4]Predicted lithium shortages are leading to novel technologies for recovering the element, now found mostly in salt lakes in South America.[/font]

By Richard Martin on June 8, 2015

[font size=3]Researchers at Japan’s Atomic Energy Agency have come up with a new method of processing seawater to extract lithium—an element that plays a key role in advanced batteries for electric vehicles and one that, if current predictions for the EV market prove accurate, could be in short supply before the end of the decade.

Writing in the new issue of the journal Desalination, Tsuyoshi Hoshino, a scientist at the JAEA’s Rokkasho Fusion Institute, proposed a method for recovering lithium from seawater using dialysis. Still years from commercialization, the system is based on a dialysis cell with a membrane consisting of a superconductor material. Lithium is the only ion in the seawater that can pass through the membrane, from the negative-electrode side of the cell to the positive-electrode side.

…

Predictions of lithium supply crunches have appeared with increasing frequency in recent years. Many analysts, though not all, believe that rising demand from makers of batteries for electric vehicles—particularly Tesla, whose forthcoming Gigafactory is expected to nearly double world lithium demand—is sure to strain supplies from traditional sources.

“I think we will see shortages,” says Simon Moores, head of the minerals and mining consultancy Benchmark Intelligence. “New supply is needed now, and it will be in the future, even if a fraction of the planned expansions in battery production happens.”

…[/font][/font]

[-none]

1. How much lithium is thrown away and end up in municipal dumps?

We need to make it easier to recycle batteries, among other things

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. Unfortunately recycling Lithium Ion batteries is not like recycling paper

http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/B/963.PDF
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/B/915.PDF
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/B/887.PDF

At this point, when they are recycled, it’s not for the lithium. It’s not worth enough to make it profitable.

[kristopher]

3. AN ABUNDANCE OF LITHIUM

Part One

AN ABUNDANCE OF LITHIUM
R. Keith Evans
March 2008
Keith Evans, a geologist by profession, first became involved in the lithium business in the early 1970’s when, on behalf of Selection Trust Ltd., was asked to evaluate the future potential of Bikita Minerals in what, at that time, was Southern Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe). Selection Trust was the majority owner of the operation which, prior to the imposition of United Nations sanctions, had been the dominant producer of lithium ores for direct usage in the glass and ceramics industry.
Subsequently, he joined Lithium Corporation of America, the then leading lithium chemical producer and later moved to Amax Exploration.
On behalf of Amax and a Chilean partner he negotiated with Corfo, a Chilean government entity, the rights to evaluate and develop that part of the Salar de Atacama that had not been leased to the Foote Mineral Company.
He was responsible for all aspects of the evaluation but when Amax decided not to proceed with the project it was acquired by Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) and the company is now the world’s largest lithium chemicals producer.
Throughout his career in the lithium industry it was his responsibility to monitor industry developments particularly in respect of new resources and he has continued as a consultant in a number of industrial minerals.

ABSTRACT
In 1976 a National Research Council Panel estimated that Western World lithium reserves and resources totaled 10.6 million tonnes as elemental lithium.
Subsequent discoveries, particularly in brines in the southern Andes and the plateaus of western China and Tibet have increased the tonnages significantly. Geothermal brines and lithium bearing clays add to the total.
This current estimate totals 28.4 million tonnes Li equivalent to more than 150.0 million tonnes of lithium carbonate of which nearly 14.0 million tonnes lithium (about 74.0 million tonnes of carbonate) are at active or proposed operations.
This can be compared with current demand for lithium chemicals which approximates to 84,000 tonnes as lithium carbonate equivalents (16,000 tonnes Li).
Concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable applications are unfounded.

http://www.che.ncsu.edu/ILEET/phevs/lithium-availability/An_Abundance_of_Lithium.pdf

Part Two

AN ABUNDANCE OF LITHIUM
PART TWO
R. Keith Evans July 2008
ABSTRACT
Estimated global lithium reserves and resources are increased slightly from the earlier figure to 29.9 million tonnes Li.
This revision is written in response to a recent report which is alarmist in its gross underestimate of resources and, in several respects, ludicrous.

http://www.evworld.com/library/Kevans_LithiumAbunance_pt2.pdf

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Both parts are… seven years old…

Has anything changed since then?

[kristopher]

5. "Has anything changed since then?"

Yes, things are different for several industries negatively affected by the proliferation of EVs. Specifically, stakeholders in fuel cell, hydrogen and nuclear technology are all far more desperate than when they originally helped propagate the lies related to shortages of lithium. Even though the cited works were by someone trying to sell a battery technology (zinc air) that couldn't compete with lithium, the others were happy to help get the word out. There is/was nothing unusual about their effort, though; for example, it was very similar to that ginned up about rare earth metals.

"Estimated global lithium reserves and resources are increased slightly from the earlier figure to 29.9 million tonnes Li.
This revision is written in response to a recent report which is alarmist in its gross underestimate of resources and, in several respects, ludicrous.

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Tesla's Lithium Supply Constraints Might Hamper Its Growth

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/03/16/teslas-lithium-supply-constraints-might-hamper-its-growth/

[font face=Serif]3/16/2015 @ 1:36PM
[font size=5]Tesla's Lithium Supply Constraints Might Hamper Its Growth[/font]

Trefis Team , Contributor

[font size=3]The reason Tesla Motors is building a giga factory is to bring down the cost of batteries used in its cars. Currently, Tesla says that its battery costs are around $200-$300 per kilowatt hour. The Silicon Valley based auto maker says that it can bring down the costs by 30% through scale alone. However, the entire process of bringing down battery costs presupposes the availability of the grade of lithium required for the making of those batteries. Tesla might run into snags on that front in two possible ways: 1) There might not be enough lithium to support the volume of its giga factory and 2) there might not be enough supply of lithium hydroxide at a cost low enough to support the economics of the giga factory.

We have a price estimate of $171 for Tesla, which is about 10% below the current market price.

Is there enough lithium to feed Tesla’s Giga Factory?

The short answer to this question is Yes, but it requires qualification. How much lithium does Tesla need for its giga factory? And, how much lithium is actually out there? Last year in August, Bloomberg asked these questions and came up with an estimate of 150,000 tons a year usage with 13 million tons of lithium reserves. But there is a caveat here. What is classified as a reserve is stuff that can be located and extracted at current prices using current technology to make a profit. However, even over and above these ‘resources,’ there is stuff lying around that can be extracted but not at the current prices because it is not profitable for companies to under take extraction given their current cost structures. There are firms in the minerals industry that have identified techniques to extract lithium from sources such as lithium carbonate, but cannot do so profitably if they have to pay the cost of digging the mineral up. Consequently, when the resources currently identifiable in a technical and legal sense are exhausted, the industry may require subsidies from governments in order to keep it viable or it will need to come up with the technology that can be used to dig up these minerals and still be profitable.

Supply of Lithium

Currently, there exists an oligopoly in the lithium industry. Three big firms-Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA, Albemarle ALB -0.15% Corporation, and FMC FMC -0.81% Corporation-dominate this space. These companies have not expanded their lithium hydroxide capacity fast enough to support Tesla’s projected demand for lithium. As a result of their hesitation, an opportunity has been created for Chinese hydroxide producers and their Australian feed stock suppliers. Panasonic , Tesla’s battery supplier, has imported a lot of lithium from Chinese suppliers recently. In the second half of 2014, lithium exports to Japan from China rose sharply. However, the cost of lithium supplied-which is extracted from the spodumene ore-is much higher than the lithium extracted from lithium carbonate. The addition of Chinese VAT on top of these extraction costs makes it prohibitively expensive. Moreover, historically, the lithium quality from Chinese suppliers has not met the standards required for car batteries. Chinese producers will have to improve the quality to meet the specifications from Panasonic, adding more complexity to their supply chain. As a result, this is another risk factor to consider for Tesla investors.

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[kristopher]

7. Poor little hydrogen loving feller just can't face the facts...

There is no lithium shortage.Trotting out an article that does nothing but try to create false impressions by breathlessly recasting basic natural resource economics is pretty pathetic - even by your standards.

As for me, I'll go with "An Abundance of Lithium" Parts 1 & 2 since it is the product of an unquestioned objective authority.
You've seen this before. There have been no substantive changes since it was written.

Keith Evans, a geologist by profession, first became involved in the lithium business in the early 1970’s when, on behalf of Selection Trust Ltd., was asked to evaluate the future potential of Bikita Minerals in what, at that time, was Southern Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe). Selection Trust was the majority owner of the operation which, prior to the imposition of United Nations sanctions, had been the dominant producer of lithium ores for direct usage in the glass and ceramics industry.

Subsequently, he joined Lithium Corporation of America, the then leading lithium chemical producer and later moved to Amax Exploration.

On behalf of Amax and a Chilean partner he negotiated with Corfo, a Chilean government entity, the rights to evaluate and develop that part of the Salar de Atacama that had not been leased to the Foote Mineral Company.

He was responsible for all aspects of the evaluation but when Amax decided not to proceed with the project it was acquired by Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) and the company is now the world’s largest lithium chemicals producer.

Throughout his career in the lithium industry it was his responsibility to monitor industry developments particularly in respect of new resources and he has continued as a consultant in a number of industrial minerals.

http://www.che.ncsu.edu/ILEET/phevs/lithium-availability/An_Abundance_of_Lithium.pdf
http://www.evworld.com/library/Kevans_LithiumAbunance_pt2.pdf

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. BU-308: Availability of Lithium

http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/availability_of_lithium

[font face=Serif][font size=5]BU-308: Availability of Lithium[/font]

[font size=4]Discover what is hype and reality, and what counts most.[/font]

[font size=3] The demand for Li-ion batteries is increasing, and finding sufficient supply of lithium as a raw material is testing the mining industry. A compact EV battery (Nissan Leaf) uses about 4kg (9 lb) of lithium. If every man, woman and teenager were to drive an electric car in the future, a lithium shortage could develop and rumor of this happening is already spreading.

About 70 percent of the world’s lithium comes from brine (salt lakes); the remainder is derived from hard rock. Research institutes are developing technology to draw lithium from seawater. China is the largest consumer of lithium. The Chinese believe that future cars will run on Li-ion batteries and an unbridled supply of lithium is important to them.

…

Most of the known supply of lithium is in Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, Australia and China. The supply is ample and concerns of global shortages are speculative, at least for the moment. It takes 750 tons of brine, the base of lithium, and 24 months of preparation to get one ton of lithium in Latin America. Lithium can also be recycled an unlimited number of times, and it is said that 20 tons of spent Li-ion batteries yield one ton of lithium. This will help the supply, but recycling can be more expensive than harvesting new supply through mining.

…

At the time of writing, there are no other materials that could replace lithium, nor are battery systems in development that offer the same or better performance as lithium-ion at a comparable price. Rather than worrying about a lack of lithium, graphite, the anode material, could also be in short supply. A large EV battery uses about 25kg (55lb) of anode material. The process to make anode-grade graphite with 99.99 percent purity is expensive and produces much waste. With graphite, the cost goes into purification and recycling old Li-ion to retrieve graphite does not solve this sanitation.

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[kristopher]

9. You really need to stop huffing the hydrogen...

There is no lithium shortage.Trotting out an article that does nothing but try to create false impressions by breathlessly recasting basic natural resource economics is pretty pathetic - even by your standards.

As for me, I'll go with "An Abundance of Lithium" Parts 1 & 2 since it is the product of an unquestioned objective authority.
You've seen this before. There have been no substantive changes since it was written.

Keith Evans, a geologist by profession, first became involved in the lithium business in the early 1970’s when, on behalf of Selection Trust Ltd., was asked to evaluate the future potential of Bikita Minerals in what, at that time, was Southern Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe). Selection Trust was the majority owner of the operation which, prior to the imposition of United Nations sanctions, had been the dominant producer of lithium ores for direct usage in the glass and ceramics industry.

Subsequently, he joined Lithium Corporation of America, the then leading lithium chemical producer and later moved to Amax Exploration.

On behalf of Amax and a Chilean partner he negotiated with Corfo, a Chilean government entity, the rights to evaluate and develop that part of the Salar de Atacama that had not been leased to the Foote Mineral Company.

He was responsible for all aspects of the evaluation but when Amax decided not to proceed with the project it was acquired by Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) and the company is now the world’s largest lithium chemicals producer.

Throughout his career in the lithium industry it was his responsibility to monitor industry developments particularly in respect of new resources and he has continued as a consultant in a number of industrial minerals.

http://www.che.ncsu.edu/ILEET/phevs/lithium-availability/An_Abundance_of_Lithium.pdf
http://www.evworld.com/library/Kevans_LithiumAbunance_pt2.pdf

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. Rare Metals Supply and Demand

http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/finalwebsite/problems/raremetals.html

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Rare Metals Supply and Demand[/font]
[font size=4]Will future supply be able to meet future demand?[/font]

[font size=3]…[/font]

[font size=4]Lithium:[/font]

[font size=3]Over half of the world's lithium supply comes from the brines in Northern Chile.

As hybrid cars become more and more popular, the demand for lithium will increase due to lithium's critical role in the production of lightweight, efficient batteries. It is in the interest of electric car companies and industries creating these new technologies to promote the belief that lithium is in plentiful supply and will continue to be over the next 100 years, however some these reports exaggerate resources and overestimate the abilities of rising new technologies to replace lithium components with other more abundant elements (Evans, 2009). Thus, the future of lithium supply is not as plentiful as it would seem. Future supply levels are expected to be above or at future demand for the next four years. However, starting in late 2016, early 2017, lithium demand will grow much more than supply. Thus, new sources of supply and ways to reduce demand will need to be found for lithium.

Prediction for Supply and Demand of Lithium, Using Multiple Clean Energy Implementation Scenarios:


Source: Department of Energy, 2011

…[/font]
[/font]

[kristopher]

11. ROFL - Again, just reiterating basic natural resource economics doesn't show ...

...that the availability of lithium is any kind of constraint that will not be met by normal market mechanisms.

However, gross inefficiency - such as we see with storage via hydrogen - is most definitely a deal killer.

Below is shamelessly copied from Mike Shurtleff's 3 day old comments to this article:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Is-There-Enough-Lithium-to-Maintain-the-Growth-of-the-Lithium-Ion-Battery-M

But before we get to Mike's list, I'll quote "anon" commenting on the same article:

"Boy, wouldn't it suck to be one of those EV companies that sells enough cars to EXHAUST THE WORLD'S LITHIUM SUPPLY?
Man, that would suck.
Seriously, if this is a concern in my lifetime, then we as an industry have done something monumental."

Now, back to Mr. Mike's compilation:

http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1434
“Lithium in Abundance”
April 2008
“Evans pointed out that a single geothermal well in southern California can produce enough lithium to meet all of the world's current demand for lithium.”

“There are also lithium-bearing clays called Hectorite and oilfield brines that contain commercially-viable concentrations of lithium, though they would be more expensive to produce”

“He estimates it at 28.4 million tonnes of lithium, which is equivalent to 150 million tonnes of lithium carbonate. Current world demand is 16,000 tonnes.”

“His conclusion is that "concerns regarding lithium availability for hybrid or electric vehicle batteries or other foreseeable applications are unfounded."

http://www.worldlithium.com/Home_files/An%20Abundance%20of%20Lithium.pdf
“AN ABUNDANCE OF LITHIUM” by R. Keith Evans
March 2008

http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1457
“Peak Lithium or Lithium in Abundance?”
May 2008
More on peak lithium issue. Some good comments.

...

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/geothermal-power-lithium-mining-two-in-one-in-california
“Geothermal Power, Lithium Mining Two-in-One in California”
September 2009

http://www.news.com/8301-11128_3-9881869-54.html
Simbol Mining - “Mining lithium from geothermal 'lemonade' ”
Feb 2008
“The start-up eventually aims to mine more than 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate each year from geothermal sources. That's more than the current annual market for the compound; the company expects demands for it to quintuple by 2013.“


http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427385.700-battery-lithium-could-come-from-geothermal-waste-water.html
“Battery lithium could come from geothermal waste water”
Dec 2009

“A GEOTHERMAL power plant in California will soon be producing more than just electricity.”

“The valuable metal lithium could be extracted from its hot waste water.”

”geothermal waters at the Salton Sea, about 250 kilometres inland and on top of the active San Andreas fault, are just as lithium-rich as the most productive brine lakes in Bolivia and Chile. Simbol says Salton's waters can be exploited with a much smaller environmental footprint.”

“Simbol is now building its first demonstration plant, projected to produce about 1 tonne of lithium metal a month”

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/simbol-20100704.html
“Report: Itochu To Join Lithium Extraction Project in California”
July 2010
“The Nikkei reports that Itochu Corp. is participating in a project to extract lithium from the produced water from geothermal power generation at a site in California.”

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=19441
“New Lithium Carbonate Prospects Identified in Argentina”
October 2008

http://www.ecoworld.com/blog/2009/03/27/gms-volt-lithium-batteries/
“GM’s Volt & Global Lithium Reserves”
March 2009
“If you run these numbers, it appears we can build 2.42 billion EVs before we run out of known lithium reserves.”

http://evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1692
“TRU Group's Lithium Outlook”
April 2009
“Hired by Mitsubishi, his firm's research strongly suggests that the current supply chain of lithium carbonate producers is adequate to meet future demand out to around 2020, though he does see potential constraints starting to develop around 2017 as the market for electric car batteries begins to heat up.”


http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Rodinia-Minerals-Inc-TSX-VENTURE-RM-1037656.html
August 2009
“Rodinia Minerals Inc.: Clayton Valley Lithium Project Drilling Update”
“The lithium-bearing brines are found in layers of volcanic ash and gravels down to the basement of the basin estimated to occur at a depth of 2800'. The current round of drilling will go to a depth of 1200', deeper drilling will be considered for a future program. Production from the existing Silver Peak facility in Clayton Valley is generated from lithium brines in the volcanic ash layer at a depth of 300'.” ”An additional 2D reflective seismic survey is planned and will extend the current lines north from an existing production well and to the east and west boundaries of the valley.”

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12965.htm “Obama, Lithium, Uranium and Rodinia” – March 2009

http://www.rodiniaminerals.com/ (symbol RDNAF)

http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=21825
“Is There Enough Lithium for Electric Car Boom? Most Experts Say Yes”
September 2009
“SYNOPSIS: Between new lithium resources and recycling, proponents see enough lithium for electric car batteries into the foreseeable future.”


http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-10357588-48.html
“Enough lithium for hybrid boom? Most say yes”
September 2009


http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Lithium+mine+will+help+power+revolution/2260866/story.html
November 2009
“Quebec lithium mine will help power electric-car revolution”
“Quebec will have a mine north of Val d'Or on stream in 2011 and Australia's Talison Lithium, the world's biggest single producer, is coming with an initial public share offering in Canada and at home.”

http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=23518
“Afghanistan Could Be 'Saudi Arabia' of Lithium” - June 2010
“SYNOPSIS: Previously unknown deposits include huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium, all vital of green tech economy.” “The United States has discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan”


http://www.pv-tech.org/news/solarworld_goes_from_modules_to_mining
“SolarWorld goes from modules to mining” - March 2011

“the company has announced plans to start prospecting for lithium on its doorstep in Saxony, Germany. SolarWorld said it had received official approval from the Saxon State Minister for Economic Affairs to start prospecting in the Eastern part of the Erzgebirge Mountains.”

“The Saxony-located lithium deposits were claimed to be among the ten largest lithium deposits in the world.”

“ ‘in lithium batteries final consumers will in future store their home-made solar power for self-consumption’ “


http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/08/lithium-20110803.html - August 2011
“University of Michigan and Ford researchers see plentiful lithium resources for electric vehicles” - August 2011

“Researchers from the University of Michigan and Ford Motor Co. report in Journal of Industrial Ecology that even with a rapid and widespread adoption of electric vehicles powered by lithium-ion batteries, lithium resources are sufficient to support demand until at least the end of this century.”

“The researchers compiled data on 103 deposits containing lithium, with an emphasis on 32 deposits that have a lithium resource of more than 100,000 metric tons each.”

http://www.uwyo.edu/uw/news/2013/04/uw-researchers-lithium-discovery-could-boost-co2-storage-prospects.html - April 2013
“UW Researchers’ Lithium Discovery Could Boost CO2 Storage Prospects” “April 24, 2013 — Researchers at the University of Wyoming Carbon Management Institute (CMI) discovered a vast new lithium resource near Rock Springs during a geological carbon dioxide storage site characterization project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy.” “Preliminary analyses of fluid samples collected from a well drilled on the Rock Springs Uplift -- a geological feature in southwest Wyoming -- suggest that reservoir brines from a 25-square-mile area of the uplift could contain 228,000 tons of lithium: enough to meet annual U.S. demand.” “To help put this number in perspective, the lithium reserves at Silver Peak, Nev. -- the largest domestic producer of lithium -- total 118,000 tons in a 20-square-mile area. In a best-case scenario, the 2,000-square-mile Rock Springs Uplift could harbor up to 18 million tons of lithium, equivalent to about 720 years of current global lithium production.”

http://www.treehugger.com/cars/vast-reserves-lithium-found-wyoming-could-meet-all-us-demand.html- April 2013
“Massive deposit of lithium found in Wyoming could meet all U.S. demand”

“Currently, the U.S. imports more than 80% of the lithium it uses, despite the fact that Bolivia alone has enough lithium reserves for 4.8 billion electric cars and that lithium can be recycled from old batteries (it doesn't disappear after use like oil), some people are concerned about our civilization's increased dependence on the soft silver-white metal. It's true that the

element is finding its way into everything, from phones to cars. But most signs seem to point toward lithium's availability going up and its price going down over time, not the reverse. This would be great for the electrification of transportation via plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars.”

“The latest development that supports that thesis comes from researchers at the University of Wyoming. They've found lithium - a lot of it - in Rock Springs Uplift, a geological feature in southwest Wyoming. Data so far suggests that brines from a 25-square-mile area could contain 228,000 tons of lithium. That's enough to meet annual U.S. demand, and almost twice as much as the reserves from the biggest domestic lithium producer (located at Silver Peak, in Nevada).”

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. Critical materials research needed to secure U.S. manufacturing, officials say

http://energy.gov/eere/amo/critical-materials-research-needed-secure-us-manufacturing-officials-say

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Critical materials research needed to secure U.S. manufacturing, officials say[/font]

ClimateWire, January 16, 2013
(Reprinted with permission from Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC.)

[font size=3]…[/font]

[font size=4]Lithium shortage likely to worsen[/font]

[font size=3]"Lithium is a near-critical element now," King said, observing that the rise of electric vehicles and their lithium chemistry batteries will create a demand surge for the metal. These problems will only get worse as more renewable energy sources and electric vehicles come online.

Collecting critical materials from turbines, batteries and motors at the ends of their lives is also a challenge. "Recycling from waste streams is usually harder to do than extracting ores from the ground," King said, noting that scraping a few grams of important elements from light bulbs and cellphones may not be cost-effective. "Recycling works in some cases. It does not work in all cases."

Some industry players applauded DOE's efforts. "The ability to acquire materials is critical to keeping the manufacturing process going," said Steven Duclos of GE Global Research.

…[/font][/font]

[kristopher]

13. Dear Hydrogen Dude: just saying it doesn't make it so...

Especially when you are going against numerous comprehensive resource assessments.

Your position is as poorly founded as the one you hold on hydrogen and fuel cells. In fact, I'm betting your beliefs about the lithium are a by-product of your zealous zeal for hydrogen.

http://www.erb.umich.edu/Research/InstituteReports/09-10/GlobalLithiumAvailability-PaulGruberPabloMedina.pdf

Riddle me this: Your source states, the "lithium shortage is likely to worsen", right? Why does your post #2 include your statement that "At this point, when they are recycled, it’s not for the lithium. It’s not worth enough to make it profitable."

Why is that? Shortages send people scrambling to bring the material in short supply to market. There has been no rush to open new mining and by your own admission the value of lithium is low and futures markets also aren't terribly interested. Where is the evidence - SOLID EVIDENCE - of an actual shortage that is "likely to worsen"?

[OKIsItJustMe]

14. Lithium hydroxide prices edge up on tighter supply

http://www.indmin.com/Article/3457878/Lithium/Lithium-hydroxide-prices-edge-up-on-tighter-supply.html

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Lithium hydroxide prices edge up on tighter supply[/font]

[font size=4]Sources confirm less material available in the market; lithium carbonate prices remain stable.[/font]

[font size=3]Prices for lithium hydroxide have risen slightly in recent weeks on the back of dwindling global availability of the chemical.

Supply side sources told IM that demand for lithium hydroxide, which is used in lubricants, greases and additives as well as being...[/font][/font]

[kristopher]

15. Dear Hydrogen Dude: Yes, and...?

Are you really saying that the uptick you are pointing to is the type of market activity that indicates the sort of shortage you are claiming? Every post you make provides more evidence against your position.

Your evidence:
Point 1: "Lithium hydroxide prices edge up on tighter supply.
Point 2: Sources confirm less material available in the market; lithium carbonate prices remain stable."

Message of that news item:
1) lithium hydroxide: supply of processed lithium used in lubricants is dwindling,
2) lithium carbonate: plenty of raw material available for that and other applications.

The questions I wrote before are still waiting for you:

Riddle me this: Your source states, the "lithium shortage is likely to worsen", right? Why does your post #2 include your statement that "At this point, when they are recycled, it’s not for the lithium. It’s not worth enough to make it profitable."

Why is that? Shortages send people scrambling to bring the material in short supply to market. There has been no rush to open new mining and by your own admission the value of lithium is low and futures markets also aren't terribly interested. Where is the evidence - SOLID EVIDENCE - of an actual shortage that is "likely to worsen"?

Good reference: GLOBAL LITHIUM AVAILABILITY: A CONSTRAINT FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES?

http://www.erb.umich.edu/Research/InstituteReports/09-10/GlobalLithiumAvailability-PaulGruberPabloMedina.pdf

The conclusion is no.

[nationalize the fed]

16. Hydrogen Haters

can't help but make the argument personal. It's too bad, really because so much is at stake.

Some of these haters are just kids with a teenage crush on Musk but others are professionals out to squelch Hydrogen tech. Some of these professionals actually call for ending H2 R&D. Imagine that. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Poor little hydrogen loving feller just can't face the facts...

You really need to stop huffing the hydrogen...

Dear Hydrogen Dude: just saying it doesn't make it so...

Dear Hydrogen Dude: Yes, and...?

Pathetic.

It's like this almost everywhere *IN THE US* where there is a Hydrogen debate. The Haters make it personal and personally attack anyone who hasn't sucked up the Musk Hype. The rest of the world isn't so emotional about it.

The hydrogen haters aren't going to stop hydrogen. Not now, not next week, not next year. And they are going to have fits during the 2020 Olympics. MMW. It's going to be a gas to watch.

[OKIsItJustMe]

17. Strangely enough…

I don’t believe I mentioned anything about hydrogen…

The OP is about another source of lithium.

Apparently, I offended by posting an article implying another source might be useful.

[kristopher]

18. You are participating in a well known FUD campaign.

That campaign of disinformation is the reason Evans came out with "Part 2" and he refers to it clearly.
Post #3 quotes Evans, "This revision is written in response to a recent report which is alarmist in its gross underestimate of resources and, in several respects, ludicrous."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1127&pid=86654

The attack on lithium goes along with innumerable other misinformation campaigns about renewables - hyper-exaggerations about baseload, viewshed, bird killers, rare earth metals, toxic wastes, land area, energy density, intermittency, too expensive, etc, etc, etc.

You both routinely and shamelessly push hydrogen with partial truths, misinformation, and hyperbole that you use to obscure the fact that you run from engaging on the significant negative points of efficiency and infrastructure costs associated with H2.

You have - both - been engaging in this propaganda for years on DUEE and your predilections are very well known; so please, spare us the wide-eyed innocent "Who me?" routine as you make post after post of junk that is largely non-responsive to the points raised in discussion.

There is no material constraint for lithium that is outside of what normal market mechanisms will address in the course of doing business. For some reason you are obviously wedded to hydrogen and clearly wish with feelings bordering on desperation that lithium batteries were not what is killing fuel cells but the reality is the energy density of lithium batteries changed everything.

You might as well accept the fact that we will have moved on to new battery chemistries long before there is any material impact on EV production caused by lack of availability of lithium.

Why don't you do everyone a favor and stop pretending that there is a "hydrogen economy" right around the corner. No one believes it any more than they would believe you if you claimed buggy whip manufacturing were poised for a comeback.

[OKIsItJustMe]

19. It seems odd to me that the Critical Materials Institute is engaged in FUD

However, I suppose you know better… silly government scientists!

https://cmi.ameslab.gov/what-CMI-does

[font face=Serif][font size=5]What CMI Does[/font]

[font size=3]1. What is the problem? Lack of secure supply chains for some raw materials critical to clean energy technologies hinders U.S. manufacturing and energy security.

These critical materials (a) provide essential and specialized properties to advanced engineered products or systems for which there are no easy substitutes and (b) are subject to supply risk.

Rare-earth elements, with essential roles in high-efficiency motors and advanced lighting, are the most prominent of the critical materials today. Rare-earth metals and alloys are not manufactured in the United States, despite geologic resources, because the processes required to separate individual rare earths from one another and then convert them to metals and alloys are inefficient, costly, polluting, and potentially damaging to worker health and safety. The solution is innovation throughout the rare-earth supply chain.

Other critical materials today are lithium in batteries and tellurium in photovoltaic materials.

…

4. What will CMI accomplish? Within its first five years, CMI will develop at least one technology adopted by U.S. companies in each of three areas:

a. Diversify and expand production—(i) design separations agents to improve production efficiency, reduce costs, minimize environmental impact and thus enhance the commercial viability of new rare-earth mines, (ii) develop transformative and environmentally benign technologies that make possible domestic manufacturing of rare-earth metals, alloys, and other products, and (iii) design new chemical extractants that will transform the recovery of lithium from highly concentrated brines.

…[/font][/font]

[kristopher]

20. No, the govt scientists are legitimate

It's your misapplication of their existence that's part of your FUD campaign.

Unavailability of lithium ore does not create a material constraint inhibiting the deployment of battery electric vehicles. Their work does not indicate such a situation exists any more than a company having to spend money on mining equipment would.

[OKIsItJustMe]

21. I see… Perhaps you need greater context for one of my earlier posts…

http://energy.gov/eere/amo/critical-materials-research-needed-secure-us-manufacturing-officials-say

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Critical materials research needed to secure U.S. manufacturing, officials say[/font]
[font size=3]…

Energy Department officials said yesterday that developing alternatives to critical materials, like rare earth metals used in solar panels and wind turbines, is crucial to American manufacturing stability and can help the United States circumvent global market pressures.

…

Such supply bottlenecks can ripple throughout the manufacturing sector, particularly for clean technologies like photovoltaic cells and electric vehicle motors that rely on rare materials. According to DOE's 2011 Critical Materials Strategy report, the United States faces supply challenges for dysprosium, europium, neodymium, terbium and yttrium. Other metals like lithium are teetering on the brink of shortages.

To combat this, the department last week announced the Critical Materials Institute, an interdisciplinary research hub, at DOE's Ames Laboratory in Iowa. The program will receive $120 million over five years.

Alex King, director of the new materials hub, said his objectives are to target all aspects of the critical materials supply chain. "I think the short-term objective is to make mining viable no matter what the cost profile looks like," he said, noting that developing mineral resources inside the United States can be difficult due to transportation costs, volatile markets and environmental regulations. "Some of our goals are to help them and other processes to meet those requirements at lower costs," he added.

…

[font size=4]Lithium shortage likely to worsen[/font]

"Lithium is a near-critical element now," King said, observing that the rise of electric vehicles and their lithium chemistry batteries will create a demand surge for the metal. These problems will only get worse as more renewable energy sources and electric vehicles come online.

…[/font][/font]

Let’s see… what was your reply?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1127&pid=86698

[kristopher]

22. Are you claiming you honestly don't know the difference between...

A constraint due to lack lack of a raw resource and a supply chain bottleneck that develops as market signals are processed?

Being a "critical element" doesn't mean it isn't available, it means we are depending on it being available. The first clause -whether the raw resource is adequate to justify support for developing the technology - was addressed and settled around the turn of the century; the second is an ongoing process of economic activity that supplies the market with the resources that were established as being there.

But you already know all of that, which is why your posts qualify as FUD.

[OKIsItJustMe]

23. You’ve put words in my mouth from the very start

You’re carrying on a heated “argument” with a straw man you’ve put my face on.

Of course, you would never admit that.

[kristopher]

24. Of course you can't document that...

...so yes it is unlikely I'd admit to something that isn't true.

Mr. Hydrogen Dude: http://www.democraticunderground.com/112786792

[OKIsItJustMe]

25. Please, point to where I said there was a “lack of a raw resource”

Saying that we have tremendous amounts of lithium, is about as non-sensical as saying “Hydrogen is the most common element on Earth!” In either case, it’s a question of production.

The OP was about an alternative means of producing lithium, just the same sort of thing the Critical Materials Institute is pursuing.

It’s strange. I thought that was good news for lithium-ion batteries…

[kristopher]

26. Your post #6 coming as a response to exchange in posts 3-5.

You challenged a well accepted paper that deals specifically with lithium reserves an resources as being out of date and expanded your criticism of that paper with an article that leads with a warning about outstripping raw material reserves.

You can't simultaneously post article excepts as you speaking your 'position' and then deny that you ever took that position. If you felt my take on your article was off target there was nothing to stop you from offering an explanation to correct it. However you never did anything like that - you simply doubled down on conflating the two distinct problems.

The entire conversation follows your normal pattern of promoting hydrogen and spreading FUD about threats to hydrogen.

[OKIsItJustMe]

27. Post #6 does not say there is a lack of Lithium in the world

It says quite the opposite. The problem, as I said, is one of production.

[kristopher]

28. Sure Hydrogen Dude, whatever you now say...

If that were true why not just say so at the time? What you are doing now sounds like the kind of attempted historical rewrite Rumsfeld has been engaging in lately.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/112786801

[OKIsItJustMe]

29. As I said, you’ve put words in my mouth.

As usual, you rapidly descend to name calling and personal abuse.

You have attributed meanings and motives which were not there.

[kristopher]

30. Sure Hydrogen Dude, whatever you now say.

You were posting articles that you selected as responses to the extremely clear statements I made.

You pushed another item of FUD and tried to muddy the water by repeatedly conflating two separate potential issues in the lithium supply chain. Your mis-use of the data was clearly explained each time and you had more than ample opportunity to explain yourself if your position was being misread. You didn't clarify because you were following the same strategy throughout. When you realized you'd been taken to the woodshed you then try to squirm out of it with REAL personal attacks* and cries that you'd simply been misunderstood all along.

Nope.

*It isn't pejorative name calling when I identify you as 'Hydrogen Dude'; it's a simple fact established by about 7 years of unaltered behavior on your part. However trying to use that in order obscure your passive-aggression and elicit sympathy is more than a bit of a stretch. In fact, I'd wager that in your own mind you self-identify as "The Hydrogen Dude".

[CajunBlazer]

32. I Think You Guys Would Argue With Yourselves I You Didn't Have Each Other

Both the use of batteries and hydrogen are good green solutions provided that the electricity and the hydrogen can produced without carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases being exhausted into the atmosphere. You are obviously not going to convince one another, so why do you simply make a little wager and figure out three to five years from now who was actually right. Oh, that's right, you will probably argue about that as well.

[CajunBlazer]

31. Human Ingenuity Concurs All

A challenge is the first ingredient of a solution.