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In a blind test, economists reject the notion of a global warming pause
(sorry if this was already posted when it came out, but I can't remember or find it. It's referenced in a RealClimate blog post, but they still have domain name problems, so I'm linking straight to this)
The authors looked at all possible 15-year trends in global mean surface temperatures. They first find that every single 15-year period showed warming (all four major datasets). The authors also show that the most recent 15-year trend isn’t very different from other 15-year trends throughout the entire period.
...
While this sounds compelling so far, the authors went even further. They subjected the data to a blind expert test. They evaluated people’s forecasting judgement because it reveals human perception of a particular set of data. The authors asked a group of economists (each with a Masters or PhD degree in economics or an allied discipline) to evaluate the trend in global temperatures without awareness of the source of the data.
The experts were told that the data referred to agricultural output and were asked questions about whether the agricultural output had “stopped”. In fact, the authors took exact statements from a climate contrarian, except they replaced words associated with global warming with statements associated with agricultural productivity.
In this blind test, the experts strongly rejected the agricultural “pause” conclusion. In fact, they found mention of a pause “to be misleading and ill-informed”. The experts were divided about whether the “pause” statement was also fraudulent. What is particularly convincing is that a blind test like this, which removes the effects of personal biases or preconceived opinions, is the gold standard for many research areas.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/sep/18/in-a-blind-test-economists-reject-the-notion-of-a-global-warming-pause
...
While this sounds compelling so far, the authors went even further. They subjected the data to a blind expert test. They evaluated people’s forecasting judgement because it reveals human perception of a particular set of data. The authors asked a group of economists (each with a Masters or PhD degree in economics or an allied discipline) to evaluate the trend in global temperatures without awareness of the source of the data.
The experts were told that the data referred to agricultural output and were asked questions about whether the agricultural output had “stopped”. In fact, the authors took exact statements from a climate contrarian, except they replaced words associated with global warming with statements associated with agricultural productivity.
In this blind test, the experts strongly rejected the agricultural “pause” conclusion. In fact, they found mention of a pause “to be misleading and ill-informed”. The experts were divided about whether the “pause” statement was also fraudulent. What is particularly convincing is that a blind test like this, which removes the effects of personal biases or preconceived opinions, is the gold standard for many research areas.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/sep/18/in-a-blind-test-economists-reject-the-notion-of-a-global-warming-pause
The paper (preliminary version - there may be a more up-to-date one available by now): http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1
