German Scientific Study Predicts Global Cooling till 2030

[golfguru]

Research based on over 100 independent expert studies points to a cooling Earth climate at least until 2030. Author, Dr. Theodor Landscheidt of the Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity points to failures by climatologists to account for solar variation in their projections.

http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/home/10036-german-scientific-study-predicts-global-cooling-till-2030

[greyl]

1. An astrologer who thought cosmic rays were responsible for Stalin and Hitler's power.

Thanks for posting!

Educational material here.

[virtualobserver]

2. meanwhile, back on planet earth.....

no winter for you, North America

[golfguru]

8. Eastern Europe had brutal winter, several hundred perished

due to the extreme cold. Russia and China also had a severe winter.

Since we had warmer than average winter in US, the oil companies are
exporting OUR OIL to China and India.

[tabatha]

3. Fritz Vahrenholt - Duped on Climate Change

German electric utility executive Fritz Vahrenholt is co-author (along with geologist Sebastian Lüning) of a book expressing "skepticism" regarding the human contribution to global warming, which predictably has been trumpeted by the usual climate denial enablers. Why should we particularly care what Vahrenholt thinks about climate science? That is something of a mystery - he has a PhD in chemistry and has worked in the energy sector for Shell Oil and wind turbine maker RePower. Vahrenholt and Lüning both currently work for RWE Innogy, Germany's second-largest energy company (Vahrenholt as a manager, Lüning as a scientist in its oil and gas division).

Vahrenholt admits he has no expertise in climate science, but apparently his status as "Germany’s Top Environmentalist" (a title which Vahrenholt appears to have been awarded just recently by anti-climate think tanks and denialists) and his climate "skepticism" are sufficient for some people to take his climate claims seriously. In an interview with Der Spiegel, Vahrenholt discusses why he chose to write a book rather than attempting to conduct and publish scientific research.

SPIEGEL: You make concrete statements on how much human activity contributes to climatic events and how much of a role natural factors play. Why don't you publish your prognoses in a professional journal?

Vahrenholt: Because I don't engage in my own climate research. Besides, I don't have a supercomputer in my basement. For the most part, my co-author, geologist Sebastian Lüning, and I merely summarize what scientists have published in professional journals -- just as the IPCC does.

Read the full debunking: http://www.skepticalscience.com/fritz-vahrenholt-duped-on-climate-change.html

[freshwest]

4. Another ice age? I predict lots of famine from lack of sun. Oh, well, you can't win.

[golfguru]

7. Mother nature never promised us a rose garden!

That last ice age of 15k years ago was brutal. 3 to 4 mile thick glaciers
where Chicago sits now.

[freshwest]

11. Hollywood warned us! Here's proof! Run for the border, folks!

[lunasun]

5. St Paddy's parade Chicago lakefront 2012 = 81 degrees today!!

[golfguru]

6. Holy cow 81 deg in mid-March!

I was in Chicago when that insidious heat wave struck, some time in mid 1990's.
It was so bad, I could not literally breathe outside in the afternoon. Hope it does
not get that bad for you Chicagoans this summer.

In the meanwhile here in Seattle, it has been a colder than usual winter. Only mid-40's today.

[lunasun]

9. last summer had short heat wave that was bad enuf this one

could be a bad mother
You may recall the number of deaths in '95
uncomfotable is one thing
deadly another
and no it is not a 'dry' heat......

[golfguru]

18. Yes I recall 600 deaths in Chicago in that year 1995?

I was locked out of the house for 45 minutes (long story) in the afternoon and was sitting in shade on the front porch waiting for wife to get home, and was sweating like a trooper just sitting! Thank heavens for the water from the outside water hose otherwise I would have been #601.

[GliderGuider]

17. It's 73 F here in Ottawa - 25 degrees warmer than San Francisco nt

[intaglio]

10. This post is idiocy

Dr Theodore Landscheidt died in 2004 so this is not new. He was an astrologer and not a climate scientist, his opinion is largely touted by the exceptionally right wing Heartlands Institute

It has been debunked numerous times. Below is a link that is one of many a simple Google search finds

Climate myths: Global warming is down to the Sun, not humans
Excerpt

According to solar physicists, the sun emitted a third less energy about 4 billion years ago and has been steadily brightening ever since. Yet for most of this time, Earth has been even warmer than today, a phenomenon sometimes called the faint sun paradox. The reason: higher levels of greenhouse gases trapping more of the sun's heat.

[Champion Jack]

12. Bingo!

[golfguru]

19. The strongest global warming we know of took place

thousands of years back which was strong enough to melt several miles thick glaciers of ice sitting on top of where Chicagoland is today, during the last ice age, and formed the great lakes, the largest body of fresh water on earth. I can guarantee 100% that one was not man made. My best guess is man could be contributing to global warming but it's effect is minuscule in comparison to natural cycles. The Sun is 1,300,000 times larger than earth's volume. We are like a pimple on a bull elephant's azz.

[muriel_volestrangler]

21. Thankfully, your guesses have no weight in our decisions

Much better to listen to scientists who have spent years researching climate. And they have shown, again and again, that warming since 1970 is mainly due to human activities.

[golfguru]

23. In case you have not kept up with the news...

we are now in a cooling trend for next decade or two.
And breaking news....polar bear population is rising!

We should be spending time on more important issues such as price
of energy, unemployment, anemic GDP growth, middle-east wars, women's
right to abortion, quality of drinking water, finding cures for cancer etc.
Global warming and cooling is a natural phenomena, and as I said, we
are just a pimple on a large bull elephant's derriere, compared to power of the Sun.

[Dead_Parrot]

24. If by "news" you mean "dead astrologer", then yes.

Otherwise, we're probably not going to keep up with you. You go on ahead, let us know how it turns out.

[muriel_volestrangler]

25. Maybe you haven't kept up with the news - the integration of Russian data

into the Hadley Centre data has now shown 2010 to have been the hottest year ever: http://www.democraticunderground.com/11279693

This is in some ways not surprising - the NASA figures had used the temperatures from stations near the missing areas to make their estimates for polar regions, while the Hadley Centre had just said "we won't include those areas at all":

NASA: Why does GISS get a different answer than the Met Office Hadley Centre [a UK climate research group that works jointly with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia to perform an analysis of global temperatures]?

Schmidt: It's mainly related to the way the weather station data is extrapolated. The Hadley Centre uses basically the same data sets as GISS, for example, but it doesn't fill in large areas of the Arctic and Antarctic regions where fixed monitoring stations don't exist. Instead of leaving those areas out from our analysis, you can use numbers from the nearest available stations, as long as they are within 1,200 kilometers. Overall, this gives the GISS product more complete coverage of the polar areas.

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100121b/

NASA has already said 2010 was hotter than 1998; now the Hadley Centre, with this newly available data, agrees on that. NASA's use of the temperatures from close to the missing areas has been justified.

So Landscheidt's predictions, made a decade or more ago, are looking wrong already.

[golfguru]

26. You are again missing my point

Global warming and global cooling has been going on for millions of years.
None of it was man made. And past global warming has been much more
ferocious than anything happening currently.

Again, man is so trivial compared to nature. Sun is 1,300,000 times bigger
than earth. And earth is Million times bigger than man's activities.
Sun dictates what happens on earth, not man.

[muriel_volestrangler]

27. The rate of warming *from a warm period* is unprecedented

There are known mechanisms for why cold periods end, related to the earth's orbit and orientation. But we're already in a warm period; the mechanism that causes ice ages cannot account for what is happening now. Humans are making the planet warmer.

Your 'point' is irrelevant and uninformed. Our heat comes from the sun; but the change we are seeing now is because humans have changed the properties of earth's atmosphere, so that more of it is retained. This is simply the conclusion of climate science, from all over the world. The relative size of the sun and earth is irrelevant. Humans have increased the carbon dioxide in earth's atmosphere by 40%.

[golfguru]

28. Observe and learn

On cloudy nights, temperature does not fall as much as on clear nights even if full
of carbon dioxide. Water vapor is obviously many times more potent in creating
green house effect than any clear gas. We should really stop boiling water and cooking
anything that generates steam. Outlaw steam locomotives in India which has most of
them.

Anyway.....I hope global warming accelerates soon. It will improve our weather
here near Canadian border and I can play more golf n winter.

[muriel_volestrangler]

29. Of all the stupid denier crap, that is one of the most uninformed examples there is

I don't know who taught you the basic 'gotchas that no-one can answer when you want to deny global warming', but you ought to ask for you money back.

Water vapour is in a short lived cycle in the atmosphere, since it evaporates from oceans and then falls as rain. The amount of it in the atmosphere is controlled by temperature - the warmer it is over the oceans, the more the evaporation is, and the more the warming effect is. It's a magnifier of the climate change drivers - such as carbon dioxide, which will take centuries to decrease in the atmosphere even if we stop producing if from fossil fuels right know, as opposed to the days for water vapour.

[golfguru]

30. I have never denied global warming...just MAN MADE global warming

because man is no more than a zit on a very large bull elephant's derriere compared to
natural cycles cause by SUN which is 1,300,000 bigger than earth. Stop this nonsense about man made global warming. It is just another excuse to raise taxes.

[Dead_Parrot]

31. "just another excuse to raise taxes"

You sure you're on the right website?

[hatrack]

34. Google "Carbon Isotope Balances" and then get back to us, m'kay?

"Stop this nonsense about man made (sic) global warming."

Right-o . . . .

[golfguru]

32. Smart nations such as China & India will never go along with carbon tax

in a thousand years. So I am happy no carbon tax will ever pass. I pay enough taxes already. Don't need another tax based on "man made global warming" which is a complete hoax.

[muriel_volestrangler]

33. "I pay enough taxes! 1,300,000 times bigger! Wah!"

You have failed to educate yourself at all on the issue, and have instead memorised a factoid or two which must have impressed you the first time you heard them, and you parrot them, unable to hold a decent conversation on the topic.

Try this: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/kids/basics/index.html

[golfguru]

37. I did enjoy reading your posts in this thread.

I commend you for a valiant defense of an indefensible situation. But your intense effort is admired by me.

[guardian]

22. Apostate!

No Kool Aid communion for you.

[jpak]

13. In what peer reviewed journal was this published? Stupid denier webiste fail

yup

[Viking12]

14. German scientist breeds unicorns with bigfoot.

A headline with equal validity to the OP.

[Dead_Parrot]

15. Rec for the lulz

I'm going to get stoned and ask my dog what he thinks.

[jpak]

36. Don't Bogart!

[marmar]

16. ........

[AlecBGreen]

20. Winter of 2011/12 departure from norm

[XemaSab]

35. Just so the OP is aware, the hosts voted to ban someone from E/E yesterday

for a pattern of chronic climate change denial in a way that was not conducive to productive discussion.

My personal sense is that it's okay to have a dissenting opinion, but it's not okay to reflexively regurgitate denier talking points. If a person only comes to this group to argue that climate change is a Marxist lie, Al Gore is fat, and it's 90 degrees in the Dakotas this week because of sunspots/water vapor/the UN/urban heat islands/Milankovitch cycles, I'm sure the hosts will be happy to show said individual the door.