The Ominous Story of Syria's Climate Refugees

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Kemal Ali ran a successful well-digging business for farmers in northern Syria for 30 years. He had everything he needed for the job: a heavy driver to pound pipe into the ground, a battered but reliable truck to carry his machinery, a willing crew of young men to do the grunt work. More than that, he had a sharp sense of where to dig as well as trusted contacts in local government on whom he could count to look the other way if he bent the rules. Then things changed. In the winter of 2006–2007, the water table began sinking like never before.

Ali had a problem. “Before the drought I would have to dig 60 or 70 meters to find water,” he recalls. “Then I had to dig 100 to 200 meters. Then, when the drought hit very strongly, I had to dig 500 meters. The deepest I ever had to dig was 700 meters. The water kept dropping and dropping.” From that winter through 2010, Syria suffered its most devastating drought on record. Ali’s business disappeared. He tried to find work but could not. Social uprisings in the country began to escalate. He was almost killed by crossfire. Now Ali sits in a wheelchair at a camp for wounded and ill refugees on the Greek island of Lesbos.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ominous-story-of-syria-climate-refugees/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+energy-and-sustainability+%28Topic%3A+Energy+%26+Sustainability%29

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1. Climate change is indeed a cause of social conflict

First Bernie Sanders said “climate change was directly related to the growth of terrorism.” Then Prince Charles said drought was the root cause of the Syrian conflict and current refugee crisis. Pundits everywhere leaped at the opportunity to say both claims were wrong. Who is right?

We have been studying the possible link between climate and violence for years, and we'd like to clarify what the most up-to-date science can and cannot say on this topic.

In general, conflicts are complex events — the result of many instigating factors, not just one. When we notice that violence occurs at the same time as a major climatic event, like the war in Syria erupting at the same time as a drought, we don't ask, “Was the climactic event the cause of the conflict?” Rather, we ask “Was the climatic event a cause of the conflict?” It might be that you need both ethnic rivalries and a drought to create a conflict, and missing either key ingredient might lead to a more peaceful outcome.

Another caveat: We can't predict that a particular conflict will or will not happen. Instead, we can assess the risk that violence might occur in response to changes in the climate. The situation is similar to assessing the risk of a car accident. Nobody ever says “If you drive to the store now, you will get into an accident.” Instead, we might say “If you drive to the store during this rainstorm, you are more likely to get into an accident than if you wait until the rain stops.”

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-1217-hsiang-burke-climate-change-violence-20151217-story.html