Yesterday's state-elections in Germany promise interesting national elections in fall 2021.

[DetlefK]

Germany's most important parties:
* CDU - Moderate right. Economically moderate capitalist, socially conservative.
* SPD - Social-Democratic. Moderate left-wing, socially progressive.
* Greens - Economically moderate left to far left, socially progressive, emphasis on environmentalism.
* FDP - "Free Democrats". Economically capitalist, socially progressive.
* AfD - Far-right. Anti-establishment party with no real political platform beyond being against immigration. Often derided as "Neonazis with a nice face".
* Linke - Far left. Used to be Germany's go-to party for anti-establishment voters but they lost that spot to the AfD.


The elections and their implications:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg_state_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Rhineland-Palatinate_state_election

Both elections show the same trend:
* The Greens gained 2.3% and 4.0% respectively in each state.
* The CDU lost 2.9% and 4.1% respectively, but that's mainly because of a corruption-scandal, not because of politics.
* The far-right AfD lost 5.4% and 4.3% respectively. That's because, compared to 2016, immigration is no longer a hot-button issue in Germany.
* Interestingly, the anti-establishment voters did not go from the AfD back to the far-left Linke. Instead, the anti-establishment voters spread out over the tiny assorted parties that didn't pass the 5%-threshold and failed to qualify for a seat in parliament.



It will be interesting how the fallout from the corruption-scandal will impact Germany's national election in fall 2021, whether Merkel's CDU will also lose a few percent.

Originally born out of Germany's Hippie-movement in the 1970s, the Greens have come a long way: From being the original anti-establishment party, to being junior-partner in various coalition-governments, to being in charge of state. They have proven that they can govern competently and that their ideas work. It is likely that they will also gain a few percent in fall.

Over the decades, the anti-establishment-voters voted first Green, then the far-left Linke, then the far-right AfD and now they have moved on from the AfD to search for yet another party. Turns out the Germans voted AfD not because they shared their anti-immigrant stance but because they were pissed at the big parties in general.