When Will China Rule the World? Maybe Never
The Communist Party wants the world to see Chinas continued rise as inevitable. In reality, its anything but.
When will China overtake the U.S. to become the worlds biggest economy?
Few questions are more consequential, whether its for executives wondering where long-term profits will come from, investors weighing the dollars status as global reserve currency, or generals strategizing over geopolitical flashpoints.
In Beijing, where theyve just been celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, leaders are doing their best to present the baton-change as imminent and inevitable. The Chinese nation, President Xi Jinping said last week, is marching towards a great rejuvenation at an unstoppable pace.
Early in the Covid-19 crisis, when China managed to control infections and maintain growth even as the U.S. suffered hundreds of thousands of deaths and a crunching recession, many were inclined to agree. More recently, an unexpectedly fast U.S. recovery has illustrated just how much uncertainty remains around the timing of the transitionand even whether it will happen at all.
If Xi delivers on growth-boosting reforms, and his U.S. counterpart President Joe Biden is unable to push through his proposals for renewing infrastructure and expanding the workforce, forecasts from Bloomberg Economics suggest China could grab the top spotheld by the U.S. for well over a centuryas soon as 2031.
Read more:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/when-will-china-s-economy-beat-the-u-s-to-become-no-1-why-it-may-never-happen