South Korea- Lee Nak-yon suffers early primary loss to progressive candidate Lee Jae-myung

[soryang]

Last edited Sun Sep 5, 2021, 02:32 PM - Edit history (1)

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 9.5.21) Democratic presidential candidate contender Lee Nak-yon suffers serious loss to Lee Jae-myung in early Sep. 4-5 regional primaries by a 2-1 margin. Lee Jae-myung, far left, 54.81 percent; Lee Nak-yon, second from left, 27.41 percent. Jung Sye-kyun, (3rd place) 7.84 percent; Chu Mi-ae (4th) 6.67 percent.

Lee Nak-yon's greatest blunders? Stalling the reforms sought by the candlelight revolution when they put the democratic party in power after the impeachment of Park Geun-hye. Lee Nak-yon served as Prime Minister to Moon Jae-in and later as Democratic Party leader in the National Assembly. He is perceived as having stonewalled prosecution and press reforms sought by democratic voters. Worse, he later called for the pardon of corrupt conservative authoritarian presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak. Additionally, he was critical of former Justice Minister Cho Guk who led the reform movement. Cho Guk, as a consequence, found himself and his family persecuted in the courts by the dictator in waiting, conservative presidential candidate, Yoon Seok-yeol. Yoon was Prosecutor General at the time.

Lee Nak-yon also failed to support former Justice Minister Chu Mi-ae, (fourth place at 6.67 percent) who replaced Cho Guk in the office, in her efforts to restrain out of control Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's abuse of power and her efforts to discipline him, and remove his supporters from prosecution offices across South Korea. Lee Nak-yon's true colors exposed, his public support has plummeted. Virtually half of Lee Nak-yon's supporters say they will vote conservative if he is not the democratic candidate for president in the coming March 2022 election. These conservatively oriented Lee Nak yon supporters are probably about 5 percent of the general electorate at this point as his support has dropped to about 9-10 percent of the overall electorate.

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(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 9.5.21) Democratic Party presidential candidate primary schedule in South Korea. Daejeon/Chungnam 9.4: Sejong/Chungbuk 9.5; Daegu/Gyeongbuk 9.11; Gangwon 9.12; Gwangju/Cheonam 9.25 ; Cheonbuk 9.26; 10.1 Cheju; 10.2 Busan, Ulsan/Gyeongnam; 10.3 Inchon; 10.10 Seoul.

[peppertree]

1. And by a landslide, I see. BIG news from South Korea!

Sounds like good news, too - would I be right in that?

Thanks in advance.

[soryang]

2. Yes I agree

I see it that way too. But it's still early in the primary cycle and very early in the presidential campaign. I think my major concern is the slowness in the vaccine rollout and the current elevation or surge in covid cases. We can see the adverse impact the pandemic has had on Prime Minister Suga's administration in Japan.

If the economic circumstances in South Korea deteriorate, the current dissatisfaction among the young voters will increase from already high levels and could undermine democratic party prospects for the presidency. However, the right has related problems inside their party with the youth vote, because their main candidate, the apparently teflon covered curmudgeon Yoon Seok-yeol with all his legal baggage, is not popular among the young voters. For this reason Lee Jun-seok, the youngest party leader of a major political party, the conservative opposition People's Power Party, is feuding with Yoon, and wants to get rid of him, as their party's presidential candidate. So anything can happen. If Yoon bolted from the party and Oh Se-hoon, the new mayor of Seoul with celebrity like looks would have a good chance to take the youth vote with the right promises and beat Lee Jae-myung, who has the right economic agenda to get through this pandemic economic slog. Would Oh be willing to leave the powerful and prestigious office as Mayor of Seoul to take a chance at winning or losing the presidency? (Oh is a conservative of course, and in my view a superficial opportunist about a nanometer deep.)

[peppertree]

3. Thank you for that very concise explanation, soryang.

One could read any number of articles in western media about South Korea's upcoming elections - and still not understand it nearly as well as by just reading your post above.

All the Best to Lee Jae-myung, and to the good people of South Korea.

[soryang]

4. 별 말씀을요

Not at all. Appreciate the kind words peppertree!

Any insight i have is due mostly to the South Korean pundits on the left I follow on youtube. I try to read the South Korean news sources they cite in their commentaries. When I see references to US media reports on diplomacy and military affairs I read those too.

건배! Cheers 원샷! One shot!

[soryang]

5. Hong Jun-pyo is Yoon's current challenger in the PPP primaries

(Source- 언론 알아야 바꾼다 youtube 8.28) Current fitness for presidential office survey among opposition party members in percent surveyed. People's Power Party candidates shown in red. Yoon Seok-yeol, 28.6; Hong Jun-pyo, 20.9; Yoo Seung-min, 9.3; Shim Sang-jung, (Justice Party), 5.5; Choi Jae-hyung, 4.1; Ahn Chul-soo, (independent) 2.8.

The first graphic of survey results above shows that Yoon is receiving a significant challenge from rival presidential candidate Hong Choong-pyo within the People's Power Party. Hong is making significant gains on Yoon's leading position. Hong has in the last few days made disparaging remarks about Yoon's lack of loyalty. One independent publication quoted him saying one "who has betrayed, can betray again." This is reference to Yoon's apparent opportunism. Yoon as prosecutor participated in the impeachment trial effort against former President Park Geun-hye, and lately has indicated that he feels some remorse for his role.

https://civilizationdiscontents.blogspot.com/2021/08/south-korea-some-presidential-campaign.html