Russian media desperately spinning fairytale that EU will break apart any moment now.

[DetlefK]

Link to tweet

The three parts are a recreated Austria-Hungary led by Viktor Orban, a Eurasian bloc led by Russia and a U.S. and Britain-dominated Western Europe

Russia will gain East Germany, Poland and the Baltic States

Yevgeny Prigozhin's Federal News Agency discusses it here

1. No, there will never be an Austrian-Hungarian Empire again.

Austria and Hungary do have deep historical roots, but nowadays both are fairly conservative and nationalistic. (Austria is more like snobbish country-club Republicans, while Hungary is more like trumpian Tea-Party-Republicans.) There is not a snowball's chance in hell that they will get back together.



2. No, Russia won't get East-Germany, Poland and the Baltic States.

No, Germany won't break up again. The cultural divide that was after the reunification has already been smoothed over.

No, Russia won't get Poland. For some reason I don't fully understand yet, Russia and Poland have a deep-seated resentment for each other that possibly even pre-dates WWII. The Russians have some grievance how the kingdom of Poland schemed against tsarist Russia 150 years ago or something like that. (The Russians really don't like Poland. It's weird.) And the Polish have grievance because of WWII.

No, Russia won't get the Baltic states. Ever since Russia conquered them in WWII, forced them into the Soviet Union, and continued to bully them after the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Baltic states have a super-duper-hate-boner against the Russians.



3. No, there will never be a Britain-dominated western Europe.

Ever since Brexit, Britain has become not quite a pariah but some sort of laughingstock in european politics. The Boris Johnson government insists on renegotiating the terms under which Britain leaves the EU AFTER they already signed the deal and left the EU. (Nationalistic jingoism on Johnson's part to deflect domestic attention from his many corruption-scandals.)

Britain has neither the diplomatic connections nor the economic soft power to dominate anyone.
The Scots keep mulling to secede from Britain, form their own country and then rejoin the EU for the trade-benefits.
And the Irish are slowly gaining economic control over Northern Ireland, because the Brexit-deal the Johnson-government signed was really, really bad for Britain.









I guess, this whole meme of Europe falling apart is projection, because the Russians have this deep-seated fear that their home-country Russia will fall apart. Russia and all the states of Central Asia are actually multi-ethnic states. The Russians are the ethnic majority, but there are so many more ethnicities with their own history and culture.

The Russians are afraid that Russia will break apart into smaller countries under continued outside-pressure, just how the Soviet Union broke apart from outside-pressure.

[Lovie777]

1. Putin and GQP are one in the same . . .

[erronis]

2. Worth thinking about, tho.

1. No, there will never be an Austrian-Hungarian Empire again.

Doubt it would be exactly the same as that historic aberration but some reordering of alliances in the german-slavic states may happen. Not because of putin but because of changing economies/demographics

2. No, Russia won't get East-Germany, Poland and the Baltic States.

Agree, although parts of each of these countries may have violent activities directed against them. NATO will definitely throw its biggest and best against the USSR if it tries.

3. No, there will never be a Britain-dominated western Europe.

True this. Of course putin put his puppet BoJo into power to make sure that Britannia would never rule another wave. But even BoJo's minimized England will not roll over if it is pushed. Unlike the shaggy-haired nimwit.

[DetlefK]

3. Putin didn't put Johnson into power.

Johnson is one of the best demagogues and populists you can imagine, and a highly intelligent natural-born liar and manipulator. Trump is a mere amateur, compared to Johnson. The corrupt shit he got away with is mind-blowing, and yet the british voters don't care.

Britain has ALWAYS hated the EU, even when they were in it. Britain even criticized and attacked the EU-laws that were originally THEIR idea.

Johnson brought up Brexit because he wanted a nationalistic election-theme to mobilize voters.