"It's Over": Putin Can No Longer Control Kadyrov - The Russian Dude

[TexasTowelie]

For years, Vladimir Putin has sold the image of absolute control over Russia’s regions, projecting the illusion of a perfectly centralized “vertical of power.” But nowhere does that myth fall apart faster than in Chechnya. This video breaks down why Putin cannot truly control Ramzan Kadyrov, why the Kremlin pretends otherwise, and why this fragile arrangement is now cracking under the pressure of war, budget exhaustion, and political reality. Chechnya was never reintegrated into Russia like other regions. It was subcontracted. Putin traded money and autonomy for stability, allowing Kadyrov absolute internal control in exchange for public loyalty. That deal worked only as long as Moscow could afford it.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine consumes more than a third of the federal budget, the financial foundation of that loyalty is eroding. Chechnya survives on subsidies, not ideology, and loyalty rented with money becomes unstable when cash runs short. The video examines how Kadyrov’s allegiance is transactional, not patriotic, and why Putin cannot enforce obedience without risking another Chechen war. Real-world examples of open defiance expose the truth: Chechnya quietly reduced mobilization during Russia’s manpower crisis, and Kadyrov’s forces failed to act during the Wagner mutiny—both without consequences. In any other region, such actions would be treated as treason.

This analysis explains why Putin tolerates selective obedience, why he cannot afford to push back, and how Chechnya has become a dangerous symbol of Moscow’s shrinking authority. As the war drags on and Russia’s economy bleeds resources, the illusion of control grows thinner. Putin still pretends Chechnya is loyal, but behind the scenes, power is negotiated, not commanded. This is what the early collapse of central authority looks like: exceptions, special rules, and a leader forced to choose between losing in Ukraine or losing Chechnya.