20 Years of Erdoğan. A Great Turkey -- A Fragile Turkey? - Good Times Bad Times (The 20s Report)

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Turkey Under Erdoğan: A Nation at a Crossroads

For over two decades, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has transformed Turkey from a marginalized player into a regional powerhouse. But his legacy is a stark paradox: a country that has achieved remarkable geopolitical influence while suffering a deep economic and political crisis.

The Rise:

Economic Miracle (2002-2012): Erdoğan rescued Turkey from economic collapse, achieving 5.2% average GDP growth and lifting millions out of poverty. This created a loyal base of Anatolian middle-class voters.
Geopolitical Power: He broke from Turkey's traditional isolationism, projecting power through military interventions in Syria and Libya, supporting Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, and establishing a military presence in Somalia. The new aircraft carrier, a symbol of this ambition, will be one of the world's largest.

The Fall:

Economic Collapse: The "concrete economy" focused on construction and cheap credit led to a lira collapse (44% in 2021, 30% in 2022) and inflation peaking at 86%. Ordinary citizens have become poorer despite the government's boasts of modernization.

Authoritarian Rule: Erdoğan dismantled the old Kemalist system through a strategic alliance with the Gülenists, then crushed them after a 2016 coup attempt. He consolidated power through a 2017 referendum, creating a presidential system where he controls the state apparatus.
Political Repression: The justice system is now used to eliminate rivals. Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, was arrested on corruption charges after being seen as a potential challenger.
The Future: Erdoğan's 2028 term ends, but he is pushing for a new constitution to extend his rule. With no clear successor and a system built around his personal authority, Turkey faces an uncertain future. The question is no longer just about Erdoğan's legacy, but whether the system he created can survive without him. The world watches as a nation that once aspired to be a model of democracy and stability now stands as a cautionary tale of how power, when concentrated in one man, can lead to both great ambition and profound national decline.