Taiwan is Not Venezuela - PolyMatter

[TexasTowelie]

Here are the key points from the video:

• The core argument: Maduro's capture will have minimal impact on China's decision to invade Taiwan, as Xi's calculus is based on military capabilities and costs, not international perception or precedent

• Three critical variables determine if/when China invades: China's military capabilities, Taiwan's military capabilities, and America's willingness to intervene - everything else is largely irrelevant

• The comparisons don't hold: Venezuela and Taiwan situations are fundamentally different - extracting two people is vastly different from occupying and governing 23 million hostile citizens across a militarily challenging strait

• China's military concerns: Xi has purged 5 of 6 top military leaders since 2022, suggesting he's aware of serious problems with corruption, disloyalty, or incompetence in the PLA

• Limited Chinese losses: While China lost a close partner, Venezuela represented only 4% of China's oil imports and $15 billion in outstanding debt - significant but not catastrophic

• International support matters less than assumed: Even if Maduro's capture damages U.S. credibility, a Chinese invasion would likely unite democracies due to the direct threat it poses, particularly to nearby nations like Japan

[OC375]

1. Venezuela is a gas station

It’s got a good safe location outside the Pacific and away from China. It's wartime value is not it’s percentage of peacetime oil exports. Control of the Panama Canal matters as well, more during war than in peace. I think it matters, from a Chinese perspective. They had to have had scenarios where Venezuela played a major strategic role in war with the US.