Ukraine's Energy Blackout vs Russia's Budgetary Blackout. - Good Times Bad Times (The 20s Report)

[TexasTowelie]

Summary

This video analyzes the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict through the lens of energy warfare and economic pressures as of early February 2026.

Key Developments:

Energy Infrastructure Attacks
- On February 3rd, Russia launched its largest winter assault with 500+ missiles and drones targeting Ukraine's power grid during -20°C temperatures
- Ukrainian air defenses intercepted most projectiles, but strikes hit 27 locations, causing widespread blackouts
- Despite hardships, 65% of Ukrainians surveyed remain willing to endure difficulties to continue fighting

Russian Economic Strain
- Russia's oil and gas revenues collapsed 50% year-over-year in January 2026, reaching lowest levels since June 2020
- Urals crude trades at a $26 discount to Brent (double the typical gap)
- US-India agreement commits India to reducing Russian oil purchases (previously $100 billion in 2024-2025)
- Russia's largest real estate developer faces bankruptcy; banking sector officially in crisis
- 50% of Russian budget now devoted to military spending (~$295 billion)

Military and Technological Developments
- SpaceX deactivated Starlink terminals used by Russian forces, significantly disrupting their command and control
- Ukraine's Alpha unit destroyed 15 Russian aircraft in 2025 operations
- New START nuclear treaty expired February 5th, leaving US-Russia without arms control limits for first time since 1972

Diplomatic Efforts
- Abu Dhabi talks (Feb 3-5) resulted in prisoner exchange of 314 detainees but no breakthrough toward ending the war
- Russia maintained territorial gains momentum, though January advances declined 45% compared to December