Foreign Affairs
Related: About this forumTurning Point in Ukraine Fails To Materialise
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Mr Poroshenko told us openly: "The more we increase the pressure, the more Russian troops come into our territory."
Nato has made it pretty plain it is not going to be sending the cavalry, so Ukraine has a pretty limited hand to play.
Ultimately there will have to be a settlement - Russia has made it clear it will not allow the rebels to be defeated, so there will have be at the very least some form of special status afforded to the east.
The question is how much of the country the central government will have to cede to get to that point.
http://news.sky.com/story/1333081/turning-point-in-ukraine-fails-to-materialise
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bemildred
(90,061 posts)WASHINGTON — Despite appeals from the Ukrainian armed forces, the United States has so far provided only a modest package of nonlethal assistance to the Kiev government, and much of it has yet to arrive.
The White House, which has relied on economic sanctions and the threat of international isolation to deter Russia from escalating its involvement in Ukraine, has been reluctant to step up military assistance for fear that it will lead to an escalation in the fighting and provoke Moscow.
The $70 million in aid the United States has pledged includes rations, radios, concertina wire, first-aid kits and limited supplies of body armor, but no arms. But much of the assistance is still in the pipeline, including such important items as night-vision goggles. The United States has also promised to train 700 members of Ukraine’s National Guard, but that program is not scheduled to get underway until 2015.
In contrast, Ukrainian separatists have been battling the government’s troops with the help of Russian tanks, artillery, antiaircraft weapons and, NATO says, thousands of Russian troops.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/europe/amid-intensifying-requests-american-military-aid-to-ukraine-stalls.html?_r=0
bemildred
(90,061 posts)ILOVAISK, Ukraine — Burned-out tanks, troop carriers and trucks still lie strewn on the roads and fields all around this town. The body of a Ukrainian soldier hangs doubled over an electric wire, flung up like a doll when his tank exploded. The charred corpse of another soldier lies inside the hull of the tank, a third putrifying torso is tangled in machinery on the road.
It is vivid, if horrifying, evidence of what was a devastating offensive mounted by Russian artillery units at the end of August that smashed the government forces, breaking what had been a relentless advance that had seemed on the verge of crushing the pro-Russian uprising in the country’s southeast. Days later, Ukraine agreed to a cease-fire cementing the rebels’ hold on the region.
In a matter of five days, beginning on Aug. 28, the previously ill-equipped and inept rebels, backed or led by regular Russian troops and artillery, obliterated almost every Ukrainian position in a 20-square-mile area around this town.
Under withering and highly accurate artillery fire, entire Ukrainian units were virtually wiped out, hundreds of men were killed or wounded, and 250 were taken prisoner, according to rebel commanders. Scores of wounded have filled Ukrainian hospitals, and nearly 100 vehicles were destroyed, some in the fields and villages, others on the roads.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/10/world/europe/ukraine-town-bears-scars-of-russian-offensive-that-turned-tide-in-conflict.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)London: The Dutch are worried that Australia and Malaysia are losing patience and faith in its investigations into the crash of flight MH17, according to a local media report.
On Wednesday De Telegraaf wrote that the Netherlands is now playing catch-up with its partners, even though it is supposed to be leading the flight safety investigation and the criminal investigation into the tragedy that killed 298 people including 27 Australian citizens.
A Dutch source told Fairfax there was a perception of "growing irritation among Malaysian and Australian diplomats about the passive position of the Dutch".
He said Australia and Malaysia were getting "very impatient" with the Europeans' insistence of negotiating access to the crash site through Kiev rather than directly with the separatist rebels that control the site.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/dutch-concerned-that-australia-and-malaysia-losing-faith-in-netherlands-mh17-inquiry-20140910-10f2vy.html
bemildred
(90,061 posts)"I have nothing against Russian nationalists, or a great Russia," said Dmitry, as we sped through the dark Mariupol night in a pickup truck, a machine gunner positioned in the back. "But Putin's not even a Russian. Putin's a Jew."
Dmitry – which he said is not his real name – is a native of east Ukraine and a member of the Azov battalion, a volunteer grouping that has been doing much of the frontline fighting in Ukraine's war with pro-Russian separatists.
The Azov, one of many volunteer brigades to fight alongside the Ukrainian army in the east of the country, has developed a reputation for its fearlessness in battle.
But there is an increasing worry that while the Azov and other volunteer battalions might be Ukraine's most potent and reliable force on the battlefield against the separatists, they also pose the most serious threat to the Ukrainian government, and perhaps even the state, when the conflict in the east is over. The Azov causes particular concern due to the far-right, even neo-Nazi leanings of many of its members.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/azov-far-right-fighters-ukraine-neo-nazis
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Poland has said the volume of gas it has received so far this week from Russian gas monopoly Gazprom is down by at least 20%.
Some European countries believe Moscow may use a disruption of gas to Europe as a trump card in its confrontation with the west over Ukraine. The row has already brought relations between Moscow and the west to their lowest ebb since the cold war.
Ukraine's gas transport monopoly Ukrtransgaz was quoted by a Russian news agency as saying Gazprom was limiting flows to Poland to disrupt supplies of gas in the opposite direction, from Poland into Ukraine.
Kiev is already cut off from Russian gas in a pricing dispute and depends on these "reverse flows" to supply homes and businesses with gas.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/10/russia-gazprom-gas-supplies-down-poland-ukraine
bemildred
(90,061 posts)---
"In view of the existing situation…we argue that these sanctions should come into effect now. I hope that this will be decided soon," she told German lawmakers, though emphasizing that the sanctions could be removed at any time. "I would add that, if the 12 points are really fulfilled sustainably, we will be the first to lift the new sanctions."
Merkel said sanctions were not an end in themselves. "They are always only imposed when they are unavoidable."
The EU earlier this week adopted the fresh sanctions against Russia, which Ukraine and the EU say has been stoking violence in eastern Ukraine by sending troops and weapons to separatists - something Moscow has denied.
Those sanctions include tightening access to capital markets for Russian oil and defense companies, as well as travel bans and asset freezes for more individuals considered by the EU to be responsible for fuelling the months-long conflict.
http://www.dw.de/germanys-merkel-pushes-for-implementation-of-russia-sanctions/a-17912526?maca=en-rss-en-eu-2092-rdf
bemildred
(90,061 posts)KIEV, Ukraine — President Petro O. Poroshenko of Ukraine said on Wednesday that the bulk of Russian forces had withdrawn from Ukrainian territory, a move that he said augmented the chances for a lasting cease-fire in the southeast.
Speaking at the start of a cabinet meeting that was broadcast nationally, the president also announced plans to move ahead with laws designed to cement the wobbly truce reached last Friday.
Mr. Poroshenko appeared to be trying to create a sense of momentum around the peace process, even though a final outcome remains the subject of arduous negotiations. The very law he discussed, for example, has been the source of widely different interpretations.
“Based on the latest information I have received from our intelligence services, 70 percent of the Russian troops have moved back across the border,” Mr. Poroshenko said. “This bolsters our hope that the peace initiatives enjoy good prospects.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/11/world/europe/petro-poreshenko-voices-hope-on-cease-fire.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
bemildred
(90,061 posts)---
"The tragedy happened in Ukraine's airspace and it bears full responsibility for that," Shoigu told his Malaysian counterpart Hishammuddin Hussein, who was on a visit to Moscow for the investigation of the MH17 crash.
If Ukraine had solved its domestic problems without using heavy weapons, the tragedy would not have happened, Shoigu said.
Russia is ready to provide all the necessary assistance to investigate the causes of the tragedy, he said, adding that "the investigation must be independent and unbiased, its results must be open to world public."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-09/10/content_18577264.htm
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)There have been reports over the last few years that Russia generally experiences financial difficulties if Brent drops below $100.
Economic reports from Europe have not been good in the last few weeks, and the Euro is at $1.29 a drop of approximately $0.05 from its spring and early summer price.
An economic downturn in the EU will only drop the price of Brent further.
However, if the EU is in a slowdown, it is surprising that Merkel is gung-ho on ratcheting up sanctions that might cause further economic problems. Perhaps there is something going on that has not breached the surface.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)And Ms Merkel's attitude also. The price of crude being down does not surprise me much, but I have no explanation for Ms Merkel's attitude, although the new sanctions are still a threat, not a reality (last time I looked), so it could be intended to encourage Putin to not get any more ideas. I can't say the situation fills me with optimism. Poroshenko & Putin may have made some sort of deal beyond what's in the cease-fire plan, they seem to be cooperating to support the plan (sort of).
The conflicting reports about the gas flows to Poland and reverse flows are unexplained too.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)1) Russian bloggers are encouraging Scottish independence, presumably because the backers of independence have pledged to remove the joint US/British nuclear submarine base from northern Scotland; and
2) The US seems determined to bomb areas of Russian ally Syria, as well as put trainers boots on the ground to encourage the "moderate" Sunni rebels to attack IS/ISIL.
This just seems to be an on-going tit-for-tat that can't lead anywhere positive.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I think all and sundry are going to regret the proliferation of the independence idea, unruly subject populations are many.
Our Syria policy has been confused for some time now. But ISIS really has highlighted the problem. A place where "Don't do stupid stuff" really should be the watchword.
And this one:
Lithuania says Russia reopens Soviet conscript cases
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-29111188
Seems unseemly in the context of all the rhetorical peace-making going on elsewhere.
Reason will only take you so far.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)is nothing but harassment, like the abduction of the Estonian border guard, but I think that it shows Putin's mindset, and frankly, that mindset reminds me of junior high queen bees. Adults generally have great difficulty changing or even coping with this type of behavior. Sooner rather than later, many other nations and businesses, run by adults, will simply refuse to deal with Russia, despite how much oil and gas Russia can pump. It simply will not be worth it. Either Putin cannot see the ramifications of continuing on this vein, he doesn't care, or he is as Merkel says, in his own world.
As to Syria, you are right. How Obama figures that he can clean ISIS out on a three year plan that will end after January 2016 is truly beyond me, unless this is a bunch of babbling for election year consumption only. My personal view is that we should not go to war because two independent journals who knowingly took a major chance by going into extremely hostile territory came to a bad end in a very visually troubling manner designed to elicit a strong emotional response. Losing the Senate to the Reps for two years is not worth committing the US to another adventure in an area of the world in which our track record is dismal.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Maybe the new cold war suits him, or he thinks it does. I usually don't think of Putin as a fool. Sort of like with Merkel, it seems out of character. Although he clearly does have a large ego and plans.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)Finland and Sweden plan to work more closely with Nato by signing a pact that allows assistance from alliance troops in the Nordic countries in emergency situations, officials said on Wednesday.
There is a very sharp difference between being a member and not being a member," the Swedish defence minister, Karin Enström, told the Associated Press. "We are an active partner with Nato and we want to deepen our partnership with Nato."
Opinion polls in Finland and Sweden show majority opposition to Nato membership. Both countries were officially neutral during the cold war.
On Tuesday the Guardian reported that Nato is to deploy its forces at new bases in countries bordering Russia, a move certain to trigger a strong reaction from Moscow.
Well, if Putin wants a new Cold War, he's doing a good job of it. Two neutral countries have grown tired of Russian aircraft probing their airspace. With these two sidling up to NATO, his Baltic Fleet and his air force may have less freedom of movement.
Nations and individuals generally don't care for aggressive neighbors.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)Apparently the Lithuanians are looking for some folks in connection with actions taken during Lithuania's war for independence back in 1990-91.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025514248
That makes the Russian actions understandable, but I have to say, that the Lithuanians are showing some bad timing here. I've visited Lithuania, and I know how much they hate the Russians, but now is not a good time for them to poke the Russian bear. It looks like a minor ally acting out thinking that the major ally will come to their defense. Somebody from State might have a chat with the Lithuanians here.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)There certainly are parties running around yelling in hopes of attracting more attention. Fogh Rasmussen for example. And some former Soviet SSRs. And on the other side too.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)the Syrian adventure looks less and less advisable.
The US has Europe and the East Asia on its plate, and escalating a third situation into a hostile country will just drain resources of all kinds from the other two problems. The US simply does not have resources for conflict on three fronts.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)It would not actually be hard to get Assad, Iraq, and Iran to cooperate with us in such an effort, and I expect we could kick ISIS ass on those terms, we supply air support and some logistics help, they supply the cannon fodder. However that would have all sorts of potentially unpleasant consequences too. So yeah, better stay out.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)All those three predominantly Shia countries certainly want to get rid of radical Sunni ISIS, and Syria has shown an ability to fight. But the only time that we got involved that didn't result in widespread slaughter or quagmire was when Bush I pushed Saddam out of Kuwait and threatened him enough to keep him inside his border.
It is a particularly bad idea to get involved in Syria unless, as has been hinted, we have the tacit agreement of the Syrian Army to target specific locations in NE Syria with air strikes.
Nonetheless, I cannot help but smell that Napalm in the morning.
Well, the Pres. is about to speak, so I should probably duck out for a bit and hear what he has to say.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)“The crisis has split Europe. It’s not quite a barricade, they’re not shouting at each other, but it’s clear that behind closed doors two European... points of view have emerged,” said Stephen Cohen, a contributing editor at The Nation, on the John Batchelor Show. “One is that this Ukrainian crisis shows a resurgent, revanchist, aggressive, imperialistic, soviet-like Russia headed by Putin and that Ukraine is only his first act of aggression—that he’s headed after this to the Baltics and elsewhere. The other Europe doesn’t see it that way at all; it sees it as conflicts of interest, as policies that got out of control that require compromise on both sides, Russia and Europe.”
—Pablo Mayo Cerqueiro
http://www.thenation.com/blog/181574/stephen-cohen-europe-splintering-over-ukrainian-crisis
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)members of the Warsaw Pact may have a very different view of Russia than those nations fortunate enough to not have had that experience.
I would imagine that those southern EU nations that have been experiencing extreme financial hardship since 2008 want to focus only on economics.
Then there would be some who just want that Russian gas no matter what.
I can see the difficulties for the EU, but I think that there may be more than two viewpoints, and that many countries would feel very torn about all of this. The mildness of EU sanctions against Russia are a reflection of the conflicting interests both among and within countries. This piece seems to take what may be messiness of purpose and interest and turn it into hardened blocs that threaten to pull apart the EU and NATO.
On the other hand, The Nation has not had a very neutral view of the former USSR nor does it have a similar nuanced view of Russia and its current actions. If this same view "pops out" in other publications, I'd give it more credence.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)but it might explain Merkel getting testy about the sanctions, a bit of frustration perhaps.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)I thought better of her than to lash out in frustration. It is very easy to do, as I know, but a head of state simply has to restrain him or herself or find advisers who will do it for him or her before he or she makes a bad mistake.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Baku-APA. Ukraine may become a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council in 2016 when this position becomes vacant, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin said on Wednesday, APA reports quoting ITAR-TASS.
“I think they [Ukrainians] will take this position in 2016,” he told Rossiya 24 television.
“Ukraine stated its interest in becoming a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council in 2016-2017a long time ago. There is the procedure in the U.N.: there are five regional groups, including an East European one, each of which has a fixed number of seats. The East European group always has one seat among the non-permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. It is currently occupied by Lithuania that will vacate it next year,” Churkin said.
“There are no other candidates for this seat except Ukraine. If no other candidates appear, it [Ukraine] will easily get 129 votes at the U.N. General Assembly, which are required for election as a non-permanent member, and will hold this position for two years,” he said.
http://en.apa.az/news/216138
Hmmmm. Edit: I think you are right, there is stuff going on ...
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)but it doesn't comport with Putin's actions in the Baltics. Maybe you're right that Merkel has just had it.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)amandabeech
(9,893 posts)Somehow, I think that Putin will be satisfied with muddle for quite some time, particularly as winter approaches.
I wonder what lessons the Chinese are learning from watching this.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)OAO TMK, a maker of pipes for oil and gas producers, led a gain in U.S.-traded Russian stocks as European Union ambassadors ended a meeting without a decision on new sanctions linked to the Ukraine war.
The company’s American depositary receipts rose 2.6 percent to $9.86 in New York yesterday. It was the best performance on the Bloomberg Russia-US Equity Index, which increased 0.1 percent to 87.22 after reversing a loss of as much as 0.5 percent. Natural-gas producer OAO Gazprom added 1.3 percent to $7.55, ending a two-day drop. Futures (VEA) on the dollar-denominated RTS index expiring this month gained 0.9 percent in U.S. hours.
Stocks rose as an EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said diplomats ended a meeting without deciding whether to impose new sanctions on Russia or when penalties would take effect. They’re gathering amid an uneasy cease-fire between Kiev and rebels in the east. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that Russia, which denies involvement in the conflict, has withdrawn more than two-thirds of its troops.
“It showed that further sanctions weren’t imminent,” Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, which oversees $17 billion, said by phone yesterday. “It buys some time. The worst outcome was averted for now as Russia was pulling its troops back.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/russian-adrs-gain-as-eu-ends-meeting-without-sanctions.html
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)With just about all trades dominated by computers and dark pools looking for that 0.00001 profit, I don't get too excited about a one day jump anymore. If this trend is generally up for another 60 days, I'd give it more credence.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)BRUSSELS/BERLIN: European Union envoys failed yesterday to reach a decision on whether to implement new sanctions against Russia over military involvement in the war in Ukraine and will meet for talks today, EU diplomats said.
The diplomats said that while Germany was pushing to have the sanctions implemented, several other EU countries wanted to hold off because a ceasefire in Ukraine was holding.
“Some countries are asking for time,” Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, who has been chosen to be the EU’s new foreign policy chief, told reporters in Brussels.
EU diplomats said that countries with close ties to Russia such as Italy, Austria and Finland are reluctant to implement the new sanctions.
http://thepeninsulaqatar.com/news/international/299721/ukraine-eu-delays-russia-sanctions
I used to work for a trading firm, I don't believe much of anything I read in the "Business" news.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)At one time I practiced corporate and securities law representing smaller NASDAQ issuers. There are things that I take with a grain of salt, as well.
Benton D Struckcheon
(2,347 posts)Looks like peace might actually break out. I guess no one really wanted this to continue into the winter.
