Foreign Affairs
Related: About this forumChina’s Tacit Approval of Moscow’s Ukraine Policy
Since Moscow initiated military operations in Ukraine in February 2014, China has seemingly adopted an ambiguous stance as Russias annexation of Crimea and destabilization of southeastern Ukraine evoked international condemnation. During the past year, Beijing and Moscow strengthened their strategic partnership by deepening economic ties and enhancing bilateral military cooperation. Chinas comparative silence on the Ukraine crisis has given way to unusually blunt remarks from a Chinese diplomat in Brussels who recently expressed tacit support for Moscow (UNIAN, February 27). Such remarks and the continued dynamic growth of Sino-Russian relations contradict efforts by the United States and the European Union to diplomatically and economically isolate Russia. Moreover, they leave open the question as to whether Beijing and Moscow are forming a de facto military alliance.
On February 26, Qu Xing, Chinas Ambassador to Belgium urged the West to stop playing a zero-sum game with Russia over the Ukraine crisis. In particularly candid remarks, he suggested that Western governments need to respect Russias interests, appearing to indicate strong Chinese support for Moscow (UNIAN, February 27). China has assumed a publicly ambiguous position on the crisis, although most Russian analysts highlight Beijings repeated abstentions in the United Nations Security Council as evidence of some level of support for the Kremlin.
Russian assessments are mixed on issues of the growth of Sino-Russian relations toward some form of alliance or on possible support for Moscows actions in Ukraine. Most Russian experts see the former principally driven by economic factors and the latter as more complexthough some level of Chinese backing for Russia is commonly assumed. In terms of economic cooperation, the underlying message coming out of Moscow is business as usual, with no indication that Beijings policies toward Russia are impacted by events in Ukraine. Russian specialists on China openly declare that economic ties form the long-term basis of the bilateral relationship, and this also feeds into cooperation in multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or BRICS (loose political grouping of rising economies Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Bilateral trade is increasing, while the May 2014 energy deal agreeing to supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian natural gas annually to China over 30 years for $400 billion set a new record. Military cooperation is also growing, but has its limits, with Moscow traditionally proving reluctant to supply more high-technology items to Beijing (Rusprav.tv, March 4).
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=43640&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=929956c14236b28e21768ac0c2d6b0c0#.VQEsrih8vzK
bemildred
(90,061 posts)The rising tensions between Russia and the West, especially the United States, over Ukraine provide a constant reminder of the Cold War, when the two superpowers fought proxy conflicts for spheres of influence. A key question in the current game of great power politics is whether China and Russia will form an alliance against the United States?
In his Foreign Affairs article Asia for the Asians: Why Chinese-Russian Friendship is Here to Stay, Gilbert Rozman listed six reasons why the Chinese-Russian partnership is durable. However, Joseph Nye, in a recent piece published in Project Syndicate titled A New Sino-Russian Alliance? questioned the possibility by pointing to deep problems for a Sino-Russian alliance in the economic, military and demographic spheres.
Both Rozman and Nye are, in fact, looking at different sides of the same coin. However, both have missed something. The future of a China-Russian relationship depends largely on relations these two countries have with the West, especially the United States. If Washington pushes too hard on oil prices, Ukraine, and NATO expansion toward Russia, and if the U.S. rebalances too far against China in the Pacific, China and Russia may indeed move towards a formal alliance, even if that may not have been what they originally wanted.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/china-and-russia-vs-the-united-states/
uhnope
(6,419 posts)& both totalitarian regimes keep their people under their thumbs. At least until the next collapse of the gov't of either place