Israel/Palestine
Related: About this forumIsrael 'prepared for 30-day war with Iran'
Israel's outgoing home front defence minister says an attack on Iran would likely trigger a month-long conflict that would leave 500 Israelis dead.
Matan Vilnai told the Maariv newspaper that the fighting would be "on several fronts", with hundreds of missiles fired at Israeli towns and cities.
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Meanwhile, a US blogger has published what he says are Israel's attack plans.
Richard Silverstein told the BBC he had been given an internal briefing memo for Israel's eight-member security cabinet, which outlined what the Israeli military would do to prevent Iran developing nuclear weapons.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19274866
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atreides1
(16,087 posts)I think that's just a little low...casualties are likely to be higher then that.
liberallibral
(272 posts)If Israel and Iran go to war, it's going to spread quickly to a lot more countries than Israel and Iran...
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)They will get there ass kicked. Israel had best just quit warmongering. They are losing friends.
holdencaufield
(2,927 posts)... and guessing you were NEVER a friend to Israel.
Will you be sad if they get "THERE" arses kicked?
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)If they start a war they are no longer my friend.
That would be the final straw.
LilSol
(50 posts)They are just prepared for a 30-days war?
And on day 31 
?
King_David
(14,851 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)Sounds unrealistically optimistic
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)I suspect the ones that might suffer the most are the Lebanese, with Gaza running a close second, whether it be due to an actual attack by either or preemptively because 'we just know' they IMO will be the ones that suffer and possibly the Syrian people already have been which could be an explanation of the 'Wests' sitting on it's collective hands and saying tsk tsk about what has been going on there
Mosby
(16,332 posts)Into lebanon right now and I think eventually turkey if it continues.
The new western "hand off" approach has consequences.
Seems like to me that it will not take much for the sunni/shia joint hatred to spread thoughout the ME and gulf, hell the shits heating up again in bahrain.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)making the final 'kill' all that much easier if indeed that course was to be taken however Turkey is a different story all together, Turkey is far more able to defend itself against such a move and such a move could then involve NATO a much messier proposition
unc70
(6,116 posts)No one is ever prepared for war. Israel should still remember that little border skirmish some years back. How long did that take? How much weaker did Israel appear afterward?
Fantastic Anarchist
(7,309 posts)"There might be fewer dead, or more, perhaps... but this is the scenario for which we are preparing, in accordance with the best expert advice."
Having my leaders speak about me in such a manner would make me furious! Such chutzpah. The leaders (on both sides) are always the cowards, but their courage is limitless when they are using other people's lives!
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Generally, that sort of talk leads me to start locating the exits. But apparently it fills some people with confidence that they are being well cared for.
Fantastic Anarchist
(7,309 posts)... is eye-opening.
Invoking Godwin's Law, I've read about other's ho-hum attitude regarding people's lives. I suppose it's just a trivial matter, eh?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Commodities to be used up, but judiciously of course.
I do wonder who these "experts" are, and what the source of their expertise?
Fantastic Anarchist
(7,309 posts)
Shaktimaan
(5,397 posts)"other people's lives?"
Unlike America, in Israel everyone serves. I guarantee you that there are more than a few people in Barak's family in the reserves or doing their 3 years currently.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)His so-called "leaked document" that he spoke to the BBC about was posted on a Hebrew-language message board on August 12th.
http://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=567269#post4282787
They appear to be having quite a laugh about it over there, and word is getting out on Richard's comment thread as well.
King_David
(14,851 posts)With delusions of grandeur ,and a relatively small readership be given the this 'internal briefing memo '.
Ha ha ha ha
This guy truly is a nobody who desperately wants to be somebody .
The BBC have been had.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)In fact, Ma'ariv basically ran his entire blog post.
I wonder if the folks at Fresh can sue them!
shira
(30,109 posts)They also ran with his fiction:
http://forward.com/articles/161227/blogger-publishes-israels-iran-attack-plan/
Bradlad
(206 posts)Maybe Silverstein was had.
shira
(30,109 posts)BBC reporting on Israel....
Very responsible.
ps
That goes for most MSM outlets as well; outlets which will rely on Silverstein in the future. And it's why most Israelis ignore such trash.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I always think "secret war plans" are funny, especially when they get bandied about in the media.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Possibility A: Someone is "leaking" things to him that aren't really leaks and passing themselves off as some kind of Israeli insider.
Possibility B: He is just lying about having an inside source and just makes things up or pulls them from other sources and pretends they came from leaked documents.
What do you think?
More disturbing, however, is the fact that so many media outlets, from the BBC on down, are giving him airtime and ink, so to speak, as if he is credible in some way.
This is without seeing this supposed document or, apparently, making any attempt to verify its authenticity.
shira
(30,109 posts)...and see if he runs with it.
Tell him you have ironclad proof that rightwing settler-loving Israelis put holes in bagels in order to starve the Palestinians.
holdencaufield
(2,927 posts)... that's supposed to be a secret!
No spilling the beans in front of the oyim-gay.
shira
(30,109 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Reason will only take you far if you have a reasonable problem. Theories are like alimentary orifices, common as dirt, but figuring out which is precisely the best one can be difficult, and in this case one can only speculate about the intentions and internal mental states of the participants. And supposing you figured it all out, you had the whole script, you are still just talking about bullshit.
Perhaps he just got a bit overenthusiastic, we've all done that once in a while.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I mean, the BBC actually put this man on the air to talk about these supposedly leaked Israeli government documents.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)So the dick-waving has been at least somewhat successful.
shira
(30,109 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)King_David
(14,851 posts)Or Purim prank on this dude..
Since its not April he must just be a FOOL.
shira
(30,109 posts)And only racists would bring that episode up.
King_David
(14,851 posts)You been speaking with Ken ?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1134&pid=16164
shira
(30,109 posts)Bradlad
(206 posts)I suspect the most likely scenario is that Israel is engaging in psychological warfare hoping that a military attack will not be necessary if the Iranians can be persuaded that their best alternative is to stand down their nuclear ambitions. I believe Israel has planted a false document showing that they believe they have the whole situation under control and expect to see victory over Iran's nuclear program in 30 days or less. I think the leaker, who Richard believes to be working against Netanyahu, is actually the opposite. Deceiving Silverstein in this way would be child's play for the Mossad and I'm sure, whatever guises and/or false identities they have put in place to deceive him, he'd never suspect he was being used. He's an amateur at these things and an egotistical fool besides. The perfect mark. It's hard to see the timeline of the stories and when they were received but whatever happened I strongly suspect it happened because Israel wanted it to happen.
I also suspect that the Revolutionary Guards, remembering their disastrous defeat from the other Western Devil in Iraq, where their forces were decimated in their trenches and sand bunkers without firing a shot, are quite worried about how they will fare against Israel's forces. I'd also guess several Iranian generals are having dreams of firing squads in the few hours of sleep they are enjoying these days. I think they have cause to worry but I also think Israel is ready to try several non-violent forms of warfare before they move to the next level.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)I think someone posted their theory about what might happen in a war between Israel and Iran on a blog. Someone else then copied that post and passed it off as some kind of leaked document. Why, I cannot say. But do you remember the Gay Girl in Damascus controversy? People do strange things online.
Bradlad
(206 posts)He's probably just one of several likely channels that they use to disseminate info that that hope will reach Iran in a somewhat credible format. The fact that the BBC and several other newspapers immediately jumped on it show that his use for this purpose was justified - if that's actually what happened. The idea would be to create doubt and insecurity in Iran's leadership clouding their ability to make good decisions in the next few weeks. I'm sure they're not worried about his blog as some sort of PR threat. He's possibly just one of many useful (left wing) channels for disseminating disinformation that they have available and that they use from time to time.
I'm just guessing of course as I certainly have no inside track to the Mossad. It's just that right now it seems as plausible as some of the other possibilities.
Added: Your guess is just as likely correct IMO.
King_David
(14,851 posts)Last edited Thu Aug 16, 2012, 12:09 AM - Edit history (1)
'
Daniel Breslau
Wednesday,
August 15, 2012
11:41 am
You are right to be skeptical. But I think in the end it will be clear that this fanciful document “leaked” to Richard Silverstein was neither a genuine briefing nor psychological warfare coming from within the Israeli government. Its sci-fi absurdity renders it unbelievable as real war planning and ineffective as psy-op.
Plus there is the fact that it is almost a verbatim duplication of a post on the Israeli site fresh.co.il dated August 11, preceded by the disclaimer: “Everything written below is based on official Israeli publications, foreign publications, and the author’s imagination.”
http://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/showthread.php?t=567269 '
http://972mag.com/i-still-dont-buy-the-hype-about-iran/53000/
shira
(30,109 posts)Last edited Fri Aug 17, 2012, 11:17 AM - Edit history (1)
myaguarnieri ?@myaguarnieri
According to @richards1052 Bibi has a secret war plan. http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2012/08/15/bibis-secret-war-plan/ … I trust Richard...
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azurnoir
(45,850 posts)The text supplied to the BBC is just that - text.
There is no document as such and thus it is impossible to verify if it is indeed an Israeli cabinet paper of some kind. But its purpose for Mr Silverstein is clear.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19272737
bemildred
(90,061 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)Very strange way the BBC is handling this.
Don't they have reporters? Fact-checkers?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)I remember Tony the Poodle getting quite irate at BBC on numerous occasions for unauthorized telling of the truth.
King_David
(14,851 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)Whereas letting things go: no problem!
oberliner
(58,724 posts)There has to be one reasonable intelligent and internet savvy person over there who can spend thirty minutes of his or her time doing a little due diligence.
It seems more and more obvious that someone took the message board post and passed it off as a leaked document. For one thing, there has been no evidence of a document provided (as the BBC updated article notes, though strangely dismisses).
Silverstein posted a screenshot of the Hebrew on his website (and apparently sent the same to the BBC) which shows no evidence of being a document or a memo of any kind. In fact, it is the same font/typeface as the message board post. It also contains the same verbatim text.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)I guess some would rather this stuff was suppressed?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)It should be treated the same as a post on this board from someone theorizing what an attack on Iran might look like.
Although the fact that it is being passed off as something else ought to probably lead to less, and not more, attention. And, in fact, derision.
If you posted your ideas about what might happen if Israel attacked Iran and I copied it and sent it to the BBC pretending it was a confidential memo someone leaked to me - how ought the BBC treat that?
King_David
(14,851 posts)Run the two pieces through Google Translate. You’ll see that Silverstein’s piece is the same as the forum posting, with the spelling and phrasing tidied up in a few places, and the more overt fantasy material taken out. There is very little additional in Silverstein’s ‘leak’. For example, in one place, it is noted that Israeli missiles would have have the ability to penetrate deep into hardened targets – an observation which is, ahem, hardly rocket science!
------------------------------------
Has somebody fooled Richard Silverstein? If so, he clearly can’t admit it.
http://hurryupharry.org/2012/08/15/everything-silverstein-and-the-bbc-think-is-gold-is-st/
oberliner
(58,724 posts)This story has been picked up by numerous news outlets now - mainly due to the interview with the BBC.
No one seems to notice that:
1. There is no evidence of any actual "document" just a screenshot of text.
2. The text is exactly the same word for word as portions of a message board post from several days prior.
3. The text reads like a person on a message board talking about a possible scenario and not like a military briefing document.
It is mind-boggling that this story has gotten so much play in light of these (and other) obvious issues.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)who has clearly read the thread, but what ever comforts
I myself had doubts about the memo sounded more like psi-ops or a plant to me, but it is strange that no one seemed to notice BBC's disclaimer as it was published about 45 minutes after the original article one must ask however dis it slip by you and a few others?
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Last edited Thu Aug 16, 2012, 07:19 PM - Edit history (1)
It's a post from a message board that someone has been fooled into believing was a leak of a government document.
The fact that the BBC has the disclaimer and then goes on to devote numerous paragraphs accepting the idea that this might be an actual government document and conducts an interview with Silverstein on the topic is precisely the problem I am addressing.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)then what was in the memo that is IMO the proper sequence let me paraphrase what any intelligent person reading the article would see - the following might well be BS as we have no real proof of its veracity
and in the original OP posted contained this paragraph something else apparently over looked
it's talking about Silverstein's document
King_David
(14,851 posts)Cut and paste fantasy internet clip called a 'document'
oberliner
(58,724 posts)That is my point.
shira
(30,109 posts)...such an article. If you think it's okay to publish Silverstein's wild claims, then you shouldn't have a problem with major media publishing the 'Breaking News' in post #61 below which proves Silverstein works for the Mossad and Israeli Intel against Iran.
King_David
(14,851 posts)Back in November we discussed an implausible story about an allegedly lost drone and explosions in south Lebanon some secret Israeli "impeccable source" had fed to Richard Silverstein who published it at his blog Tikun Olam.
We concluded:
Israel's secret services are known for launching, often false, stories in foreign media. Such "foreign" stories then can be quoted by the Israeli media. These are usually stories that are somewhat military relevant and would otherwise not pass the military censors who sit in every Israeli news room. Despite being launched in foreign media such stories are made up and put out for the domestic Israeli public for self serving and/or political reasons.
It seems to me that Richard was in this case (ab-)used by someone for such a purpose.
On August 15 Richard published another rather implausible story under the headline Bibi’s Secret War Plan:
In the past few days, I received an Israeli briefing document outlining Israel’s war plans against Iran. The document was passed to me by a high-level Israeli source who received it from an IDF officer.
Richard translated parts of the "war plan" fed to him:
A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.
The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride.
A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound [Iranian] command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.
http://www.moonofalabama.org/
King_David
(14,851 posts)by Paul Woodward on August 16, 2012
There’s a form of laziness, opportunism, and cynicism that is far too common among mainstream journalists: the willingness to report on stories that news reporters themselves believe to be false.
Why would a journalist from the BBC or the New York Times or some other publication that purports to have a high regard for its own credibility treat as newsworthy something that even their own readers will quickly conclude deserves no attention?
For the simple reason that once something, however fanciful, enters the public domain thanks to the world of push-button publishing we now live in, it can be treated as a phenomenon in the news environment and thus traded as a piece of news. Its veracity can be treated as secondary to the fact that it has already become a subject of conversation. Most importantly, the journalist who chooses to breath life into such a worthless story can contrive a judicious distance from the story by attaching the necessary number of caveats that make it clear that he is doing nothing more than repeat someone else’s claims. Note that this kind of reporting will always repeatedly use the phrase “says” in order to underline that no factual claims are being made by the reporter. The reporter assumes a pretense of agnosticism
http://warincontext.org/2012/08/16/richard-silverstein-is-a-fool-shame-on-the-media-for-taking-him-seriously/
King_David
(14,851 posts)OK. I think that most readers who have trudged through this tedious process this far will probably share my assessment. Richard Silverstein is a fool and it’s time the media stopped treating him like Julian Assange. He might share Assange’s hunger for media attention, but unlike Wikileaks which understands that the organization’s credibility will evaporate if it starts publishing bogus documents, for Silverstein getting his name in the newspaper appears to be the be all and end all of his operation.
http://warincontext.org/2012/08/16/richard-silverstein-is-a-fool-shame-on-the-media-for-taking-him-seriously/
shira
(30,109 posts)BREAKING: A commenter at Elder of Ziyon just revealed the following startling new information on recent “news” about Israeli plans for a 30- day war against Iran which were secretly passed to the Seattle-based blogger, Richard Silverstein, by a source at the IDF.
The only two people who know the final code which will be released around mid October are Silverstein and his wife. As a result they are guarded day and night by CIA agents, lest Iranian security services seek to thwart the system by kidnapping or incapacitating them.
These particular sources are impeccable and they’ve never been wrong.”
cont'd...
http://cifwatch.com/2012/08/17/elder-of-ziyon-reader-blows-the-lid-off-of-dicky-gate/
shira
(30,109 posts)Can anyone say 'Israel Derangement Syndrome'?
King_David
(14,851 posts)2 peas in a pod..
shira
(30,109 posts)shira
(30,109 posts)Over the past two days, most of the people in Israel (ourselves included), have seen news reports all over the media, detailing the “Israeli Iran Attack Plan”, allegedly originating from one Richard Silverstein, an American Anti-Israeli blogger.
Silverstein, whose lack of integrity is shown by his claims to have never visited www.fresh.co.il though he has an active account, which he used to write 11 posts(the 12th was an attempt to publish classified information and resulted in deletion and a six month suspension of his account – suspension which was ended over a year ago), published yesterday a translation of what he claimed to have been a document obtained from “a high-level Israeli source who received it from an IDF officer”.
Since we can’t read minds, we can only guess whether Silverstein source actually exist, and whether the source was informed on this “attack plan”. What we don’t need to speculate about, is the fact the first publication of the said document (in a different version, which defined it as “an optimistic scenario for an attack in Iran” and clearly stated that it was based on foreign and non-classified sources and on the author’s own imagination) – was published four days before Silverstein’s publication, right here, on this website, in the Army and Security Forum, as a thread which was started by the forum’s moderator, Sirpad, on behalf of one of the forum’s most veteran and respected users, who was the original author of the document (yes, he and non-other).
Since we have no expectations that a man who dedicates his life to causing harm to the State of Israel and its citizens, will be honest enough to admit that his “scoop” is neither scoop nor his, we were hoping that at least the Israeli Media, which rushed to quote Silverstein, Will know to give Sirpad, the real author, and original place of publication, their due credit.
Needless to say that we were disappointed. Since yesterday there were articles in NRG, YNET, Channel 2, Ma’ariv (whose printed version did point out that Silverstein wasn’t in fact the first publisher of the story, but failed to name Sirpad, The real author, or fresh.co.il and identified the true origin as “an Israeli Forum” ), Israel army radio and “Israel Hayom” – and none of them gave the credit which media outlets are supposed to give.
Worthy of a positive mention is Avri Gilad who named the true origin of the story both in his morning show in Channel 2 and in his radio show in the Army radio.
We understand there is great deal of embarrassment among the media, which had quoted a dubious and irresponsible blogger, but that shouldn’t, in our opinion, cause them to refrain from correcting their articles, now, when they know the truth. In fact the seriousness of a news publication can be measured in its willingness to admit its mistakes and to correct them.
We hope that media outlets, mentioned here, all of them among the most respected in Israel, will know to set thing right, and clarify that the original publication was written by a veteran and well known member of the fresh.co.il community, and was publish on his behalf by the Moderator of the Army and Security Forum, Sirpad. That is how a responsible media should act – and this how any news organization would expect other to treat him or its reporters were things different.
Sincerely,
Fresh.co.il team
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%2522Over%2Bthe%2Bpast%2Btwo%2Bdays,%2Bmost%2Bof%2Bthe%2Bpeople%2Bin%2BIsrael%2B%2522%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dsafari%26rls%3Den%26prmd%3Dimvns&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=iw&twu=1&u=http://www.fresh.co.il/vBulletin/announcement.php%3Ff%3D20%26announcementid%3D643&usg=ALkJrhgQ66cO5LvzuYPied6X1lTRdJ-pYw
King_David
(14,851 posts)shira
(30,109 posts)...to issue a correction, now that the lead moderator at Fresh forums has debunked this 'scoop'.
In fact, Silverstein's credibility has received a boost. He will in no way pay for his fraud. I wouldn't be surprised to see major media outlets run with more of his hysterical garbage 'scoops' in the future; without vetting the claims first.
This is a prime example of willful media blindness and goes to show how the media WRT Israel is no better than state run Iranian PRESS-TV propaganda (according to 'X' source...).
Definite bookmark material here....
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)that despite 2 disclaimers by BBC the subject is dragged over to a second thread unrelated to either the BBC or Silverstein
http://www.democraticunderground.com/113416483
or perhaps it could be seen as an attempt to distract from what many here on DU see as a blatant attempt by Israel to interfere in American politics and elections
shira
(30,109 posts)...and you let me know if post #61 above should've been published by the BBC as well, with some dumb disclaimer.
What a riot.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)Nothing stilrs them up more than an apostate Jew or a loud, stupid, anti-semite. It doesn't go anywhere much, but emotionally it seems to be very satisfying, like when I find a "Bibi said something stupid and aggressive" story.
I was raised Methodist, I almost wish that was still a militant religion so I could get worked up too.
King_David
(14,851 posts)Is that like "us" and "them "?
You and Azurnoir ?
( She Methodist like you or Jewish like them ?)
bemildred
(90,061 posts)You have not appeared to me to be so stupid as not to be able to figure out who "them" is in that sentence; and I sure as heck am not so stupid as to try to explain it to someone that does not really want to understand.
King_David
(14,851 posts)Feel good now ?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)is satisfying you must be an usually satified person 'cause those are getting to be common as dirt and about as old too, but in the way of satisfaction have you read the latest on Mittens remarks?
bemildred
(90,061 posts)by overstimulation for some years now. But that was just an example.
Yes, I have listened to the secret Mittens tape, and frankly, I fear for my judgement, my sanity, my equilibrium, it is so good, but good in a bad way. When you have spent your whole life watching these rich assholes lie and cheat and steal from the public, fancying themselves a better class of being because they inherited or earned a bit of money, it makes my day to see them exposed for the shallow, ignorant, selfish fools that they are.
