Hamas and the Arab Spring

[Jefferson23]

The Arab Spring is an opportunity to mend fortunes by rebranding Palestinian politics for statehood and good governance.

Last Modified: 29 Dec 2011

Exeter, United Kingdom - On a "win-loss" scale, Hamas features more as amongst the "winners" not "losers" of the Arab Spring. Ismail Haniyeh's current diplomacy "shuttle" around several Arab capitals is designed, amongst other things, as a declaratory policy embracing the Arab Spring.

However, the embrace remains a little ill-defined around the edge, and faces many challenges.

The Arab Spring, like that "sudden" light, creating a desperately needed opening in a tunnelled Palestinian cause, illuminating the path for Haniyeh, amongst other chiefs of the Palestinian polity, including Fatah.

Haniyeh lands in Cairo around the same time in December three years ago when a buoyant Tzipi Livni more or less declared the war on Gaza with total indifference from Mubarak's ousted Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu al-Ghait in December 2008. Maybe not by design, but the timing of Haniyeh's visit is not without political symbolism.

No one can predict when Livni will get back to Cairo. But what is certain: Haniyeh's visit will not be his last to Egypt's capital.

in full: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/12/2011122964659993802.html

[bemildred]

1. What did you think of the piece Little Tich put up?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11341592

We have conflicting narratives about what is going on with Hamas these days. I tend to favor the view Little Tich posted, but in fact I think nobody knows. If it was predictable, it would be business as usual.

[Jefferson23]

2. Thanks for posting the piece. Are they not coming to similar conclusions? I think, yes.

The main point, how does Hamas remain relevant. This is essential for them and as such they would need
to recalibrate their political approach. Whether they are successful or not depends on many factors. I like
hearing about the internal struggle....I don't guess where it will end but I do find it encouraging. I'll add the
more they remove themselves from armed resistance, the screaming meme they created..ones both real and
fabricated, the harder it will be for the Israeli government to continue the occupation..politically harder that is.

I find the fact that one OP considers them winners to mean nothing more than the opportunity
to succeed politically exists. I don't agree with the OP from Tich, here: "But in addition to that there is a reality that the United States is the only real, viable broker for a peace agreement, and in the end the Palestinians cannot get what they need – an independent state and an end to the occupation – without an agreement with Israel."

I disagree in the sense that the United States will not BE the broker, not that they couldn't do it. I think we may agree why it is
highly unlikely the Palestinians will end up with a viable state, and not a bantustan in any final agreement through U.S. intervention.

The Palestinians have yet to coordinate a massive united peaceful resistance..you can't tell anyone..hey, get up on your
feet..just do it. Aside from arrogance..things just don't work that way..but imho, I do believe that day is coming, sooner than
later.

I do agree with the author the idea Islamists are taking over is completely wrong, the indication is more secular..in Egypt
all things that move in that direction will help the Palestinians over time. I have said before that since Mubarak is gone, and
the changes since..Israel will not be as inclined to wage another OCL....I do hope I am not wrong about that bemildred.

[pelsar]

3. i would say you are wrong..then

Israel will not be as inclined to wage another OCL....

OCL had nothing to do with the geographic politics..it was about stopping the incessant random attacks on the israeli population coming out of gaza, where limited reprisals had zero affect.

OCL had a major affect in stopping the missiles, not 100% but no longer are missiles landing every other day in israel, we define that as a success.

to ignore such a basic cause and affect is to live in some kind of fantasy world.

and if hamas decides to continue and increase their attacks, the israeli govt will eventually respond in kind with "overwhelming response'. The concept that israel has to accept constant attacks on its population as part of its daily life because of some larger entity might attack it (egypt) is pretty close to "blackmail"

that doesn't work to well with us....

and this?
I do agree with the author the idea Islamists are taking over is completely wrong, the indication is more secular..in Egypt
got any concrete examples?...given that islamists have the majority... (just don't get "surprised" when the koran is established as the judicial law book with the punishments that come out of it, as well as discriminatory laws that follow)

[bemildred]

4. Thanks.

I am always inattentive to people who say things like "the United States is the only real, viable broker for a peace agreement", or other such dogmatic attempts to constrain the future with words.

I think the problem for Hamas is precisely to stay relevant, and a difficult problem it is, although OCL round two might do the job and save their ass for a while. Benny Gantz was suggesting that, along with some funny retro rhetoric about "not testing our mettle", but that might be a translation problem. A classic example of inadvertently revealing what one is worried about.

Hamas' problem is that Gaza is neither a nation or a people, nor does it want to be, so in the end it's a very shaky base, and they are having to leave Syria as well, and the Arab Spring really undercuts their whole narrative, as do the "state-building" efforts of Fatah in the WB. And they really have no place else to go.

[pelsar]

5. why is their beliefs always ignored?

they are religious, they're whole being is based around their beliefs, its doesn't matter where they live or how, they aren't going to be giving up their beliefs...the religious fanatics especially when their in power, simply don't do that.

it maybe that the gazans one day will rise up and replace them, more likely it will look like how iran handled their little mutiny a little while back....

[bemildred]

6. Why is their air?

Why ask me?

I don't give a shit about their beliefs, any more than your beliefs. I'm not religious, and people believe all sorts of silly crap.

[King_David]

7. Rude answer. nt

[Violet_Crumble]

8. Why? n/t

[bemildred]

9. Because when I ignore their arguments and questions, it's rude.

Whereas if they ignore what I say, that's just staying on point.

[pelsar]

10. actually i don't understand..

i was just commenting on how so many times people here believe the hamas will give up their religious beliefs for "material" or other western concepts and ideas.. (a rather "white mans burden" kind of mentality)

and was asking you why you think they would, since they have many times made it clear that they do not believe in western values.....(women's rights, civil rights, human rights as defined by the west)

personally i believe its rather disrespectful of their values, religion and beliefs.....to believe that they would so easily give them up.
___

i just figured you didn't want to get involved in the contradictions of "multiculturalism" ...it has some rather interesting contradictions inherent in the belief.

[bemildred]

11. I know that.

You are free to comment as much as you like, and any way you like. And I am free to respond or not as I choose. You and I have had many long converstations in the past, and there is not much that has changed, and not much changed back then either. You ignore what I say and stick with what's on your mind, and I do the same for you. I just don't see any need to pretend that we are conversing about some common subject based on some common assumptions.

Show me you get that much, and I'll consider talking about Hamas. I'm not jumping into the meat-grinder for nothing.

[pelsar]

12. of course i understand that...

its takes a lot to make one rethink ones position and beliefs...especially once we pass the 40+year mark in life, assuming life has treated us decently..... Yet in that respect i am religious in that i still believe people can have their beliefs changed without "life changing experiences" but by observing the events. Whether i show it or not, the years here have been quite the eye opener as well as forcing me to do one helluva lot of research...some of it caused some changes in some beliefs, some strengthen previous

the events of the last 5 years in the I/P conflict have been quite dramatic in some respects, other than the those who are religious/believers, its pretty hard for me to comprehend not have some changes in some of ones beliefs...

[bemildred]

13. OK, let's try this, using your post #10:

was just commenting on how so many times people here believe the hamas will give up their religious beliefs for "material" or other western concepts and ideas.. (a rather "white mans burden" kind of mentality)

But you know I don't think that, or you ought to, and you know I can't speak for other people's thoughts.

and was asking you why you think they would, since they have many times made it clear that they do not believe in western values.....(women's rights, civil rights, human rights as defined by the west)

Well, like I said, I don't.

personally i believe its rather disrespectful of their values, religion and beliefs.....to believe that they would so easily give them up.

I don't care about how Hamas "feels" either, assuming that makes any sense at all in the first place, and I have great skepticism about the idea that you do too.

i just figured you didn't want to get involved in the contradictions of "multiculturalism" ...it has some rather interesting contradictions inherent in the belief.

I don't really see that what Hamas thinks has much to do with multi-culturalism. They are vanilla reactionary religious fundamentalists, not multiculturalists.