Israel/Palestine
Related: About this forumHezbollah’s Role in Syria War Shakes the Lebanese
Lebanon reeled Monday from the twin realizations that Hezbollah, the nations most powerful military and political organization, was plunging deeper into a war the country has tried to stay out of, and that the group was taking unaccustomed losses. Mr. Shukor, a former government minister from Lebanons Arab Socialist Baath Party, walked a careful line between supporting a declaration by Hezbollah that Syrias fight is its fight and acknowledging the contradiction of fighting fellow Arab Muslims instead of Israelis.
The scale of the fighting among the most intense ground battles in Syrias war has forced Lebanon to contend anew with a perennial problem. Hezbollah, stronger than the Lebanese Army, has the power to drag the country into war without a government decision, as in 2006, when it set off the war by capturing three Israeli soldiers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/21/world/middleeast/syria-developments.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&
This shows just how desperate Iran is to prop up Assad. Hezbollah is also fighting for their existence - if Assad falls, the rest of Lebanon will dismember a weakened Hezbollah.
aquart
(69,014 posts)It's a horrible bloody mess which would become 1000 times worse if we jumped in.
Meantime, if we have an urge to make a difference, Syrian refugees are so desperate they are selling their daughters. Almost 2 million refugees. They need to eat. They need not to be so desperate they destabilize Turkey and Jordan.
Feed them and stay home.
hack89
(39,171 posts)but this conflict will reshape the ME conflict, with Lebanon being the next country to go.
aquart
(69,014 posts)Lebanon may want to erupt...but Israel is very close and prone to getting annoyed. Still, they kicked the shit out of Sabra and Shatila...If they could disarm Hezbullah for ten minutes would another massacre take place?
The ME was going to erupt soon anyway. As the aging dictators died, the whole place would have exploded. We moved up the timetable by invading Iraq. But the reshaping was already in the works.
sabbat hunter
(6,827 posts)Was Mubarak. Assad in Syria is fairly young. King Abdullah 2 is a young man. In Saudi Arabia the ruling family has a iron grip on it country.
Iraq has a fledgling democracy. Iran is under the grip of the mullahs, with no signs that there will be any change. They control the army and Revolutionary Guard (who are very loyal to the mullahs).
So, other than Mubarak, I am not really seeing where aging dictators dying would have made the ME explode.
jessie04
(1,528 posts)Hezbollah has placed its bets with Iran and Syria.
When Syria goes, there goes their lifeline to Iran.
sabbat hunter
(6,827 posts)Lebanon does dismember a weakened Hebollah. It is a terror organization.
pelsar
(12,283 posts)i've heard differently here....many many many times its been made clear to me that Hizballa is simply protecting Lebanon, and have not created a miltia with their own policies both internal and external.....with few if any protesting that point of view...amazing how events have a habit of showing how wrong those who have opinions that agenda/ideologically driven can be.
Hizballa is protecting Lebanon?..by backing Assad?
http://triblive.com/usworld/world/4054642-74/lebanese-assad-hezbollah#axzz2UNA7wtwG
as the war spills over in to Lebanon, guess who is not protecting Lebanon...
sabbat hunter
(6,827 posts)is a terror organization. I have backed this line of thought as long as I have been on DU.
delrem
(9,688 posts)Of the above responses I only fully agree with aquart.
My comment.
This isn't a civil war, it's being actively promoted by Saudia Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, for three, and by the US behind the scenes leading a "friends of Syria" coalition. Consider how much oil money the dictating families of Saudi Arabia and Qatar can throw around, 10's of billions on US arms with as much to spare. With Libya finished and the Libyan oilfields, if nothing else, secured, when the ruling families of Saudi Arabia and Qatar put out their call for jihadists to go to Syria, waving fistfuls of $$$ and looking only for experience with weapons and eagerness to get to business, who was likely to be among the first wave of recruits?
Is it a wonder that the best and most efficient of these tools falls under al Qaeda leadership and that they, along with the territories they've "liberated" and the weapons they were given to do it with, are now formally aligned with aQ in Iraq?
The Saudi ruling family are decadent libertines who put on a front to their heavily insulated home audience, of being protectors of Mosques, even while frittering away the people's heritage on gaming tables and yachts. Their people, the people these libertines rule over, are ruled by the iron hand of extremely conservative religious edict governing every aspect of their behavior. Women aren't allowed to drive, ... screw it, I won't try to list it because no list can do it justice. In these utterly decadent and warped conditions only a certain kind of male openly prospers, only certain kinds of movements openly prosper. This is the cesspit in which the leader of aQ was nurtured, bin Laden being one of the first families, a family familiar with US presidents and tightly connected with US oil interests.
I don't see how any good can come of continuing to promote this, except in one case: if the end product is to take out Shi'a Iran, this "lead from behind" strategy is sound.