Netanyahu, Mofaz form unity government, cancel elections

[shira]

In a dramatic shift that took the entire Israeli political establishment by surprise, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima Chairman Shaul Mofaz formed a 94-seat national unity government and canceled early elections.

Shortly after 2:30 AM Netanyahu and Mofaz arrived at the Knesset to brief their parties of the details of their agreement. Kadima joined the government in exchange for Mofaz’s appointment as a deputy prime minister, a minister without portfolio, and a cabinet member.

Additionally, the government will propose a replacement for the Tal Law, which is set to expire in August. Mofaz said that in the coming year Kadima will receive additional ministerial positions. Both parties have agreed that the 18th Knesset will complete its term and elections will be held on schedule in November 2013.

The talks were disclosed shortly after the government’s bill to dissolve the Knesset had passed its first reading Monday night, by 109 votes to 1, with Kadima supporting it. Parliament was then proceeding toward the second and third readings of the bill, en route to general elections on September 4.

more...
http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-mofaz-in-talks-to-form-unity-government-cancel-elections/

[bemildred]

1. This ought to be good.

[oberliner]

2. Wow

What's the motivation here? Any experts on Israeli politics want to weigh in?

[bemildred]

3. You got me.

If I read it right, first you get rid of Livni, then you suborn Mofaz' past commitments and get Shas & Lieberman to go along, the explanations sound like hand-waving, about a chance to improve their future chances, etc., and all at the last second. I have to think there is more to it.

I'm also wondering if the back-benchers are going to swallow it without an argument.

[azurnoir]

4. Thank you I was thinking along the same lines

especially when it comes to Livni

[oberliner]

7. I don't get Kadima's motivation

They could've formed a coalition with Netanyahu previously, but refused.

Why change now?

[henank]

8. It was Tzippi Livni

who refused to join a Likud-led coalition. Mofaz also refused up till not so very long ago as you mentioned upthread, but with looming elections Mofaz must have read the writing on the wall and seen that Kadima would be decimated. Much better politically to move in with Likud. As for his not-so-flattering descriptions of Bibi - that's Israeli politics for you. One day you're calling the guy a liar, next day he's your BFF. It's probably the picture of coalition politics in every country - see the UK for example.

Also, people forget that a) the Israeli public were very much in favour of a unity government back at the last elections, and that opinion has not changed. Kadima's voters too were in favour (I think), so Mofaz's move will be popular; and b) Mofaz is not as dovish as he is made out in the media. He was a previous Chief of Staff of the IDF and Defence Minister, so Likud under Bibi might not be as strange a bedfellow as you might imagine.

[henank]

5. It's pretty straightforward really

Netanyahu didn't really want elections and neither did the public. His coalition was stable, he had public support. But trouble started brewing with the cancellation of the Tal Law (exempting haredim from military service), a new budget and social unrest simmering in the background. Bibi was (is) still the only viable candidate for PM, so he decided to call elections to strengthen his position and clear the way for another 4 years.

Bringing Kadima into the coalition solved several problems at a stroke without the expense and instability of new elections. See Ynet's report here - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4226125,00.html

Senior Likud officials estimated that Netanyahu decided to lead the unity move after realizing the extent of public support for changing the law on haredi enlistment into the IDF. Meanwhile, Mofaz endorsed the deal after seeing Kadima plummeting in the polls and heading for a disastrous showing in the September elections, which have now been averted.

Both leaders were also interested in undermining the chances of rookie politician Yair Lapid, who was set to win more than 10 Knesset seats in the elections according to the polls.

Ynet has a list of the winners and losers of the new unity government here - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4226205,00.html winners and losers] of the new unity government:

Benjamin Netanyahu – got another year and a half or so as prime minister, with the broadest coalition possible. He now has the opportunity to address several sensitive issues.

Shaul Mofaz and Kadima – spared a possible political demise. The future is foggy, but for the time being Shaul Mofaz has time to build his image.

Ehud Barak – planned to run with the Independence party, which barely reached the minimal threshold for entering the Knesset. Now he shall remain in the post of defense minister and can breathe a sigh of relief.

Eli Yishai and Shas – As long a Rabbi Ovadia Yosef rules the party, Yishai gains, because he did not really want elections, and for the time being Aryeh Deri will be left out. Should it quit the government later because of the Tal Law, Shas would be able to tell its voters that it fought against it.

Avigdor Lieberman – all along, he claimed that he wanted to see the government run its course. He also wanted to be credited for the new Tal Law. Now, his part in the government will decline, and his ability to threaten to topple the government will also decline, significantly. His contribution to the Tal Law will be minimized, as the legislation would not have passed without Kadima. As to the decision on his indictment, he may gain: Should an indictment be served, he will have to quit his ministerial post. A deal may be worked out with him that will force him to take a time-out until the next elections. Had an indictment been served right before the elections, he may have had to stay out of politics for four years.

And the losers:

Shelly Yachimovich and Labor – the polls predicted close to 20 Knesset seats for Labor. Yachimovich was riding the social protest wave, and now will be hung out to dry in an armored Audi with body guards, in her role as opposition chairwoman with a mere eight Knesset seats.

Yair Lapid – a true letdown for the man who made the great buzz, who is now en route to a lengthy dry spell and possible erosion. Should the Tal Law be passed, he will have nothing to offer on this front.

Tzipi Livni – quit Kadima, and now is left out of the game. She could have been a part of the government had she wanted to. On the other hand, she can wait for her opportunity and could make a comeback.

[oberliner]

6. Mofaz: I won't join Bibi's government (March 3)

"Listen up: I won't join Bibi's government," he wrote on March 3. "Not today, not tomorrow and not after I head Kadima on March 28. This is a bad and failed government and Kadima under my leadership will replace it in the next elections. Is that clear enough?"

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4226160,00.html

[bemildred]

9. Yep.

And the last second drama.
And other things.
We'll have to see how it develops.

[azurnoir]

12. perhaps Mr Mofaz has since grown more 'pragmatic'

actually about a week ago

If election was to be held today, Likud would grow stronger, Right would win narrow Knesset majority

According the poll, conducted by Yedioth Arhonot and the Dahaf Institute, Likud would win 30 mandates – compared to the 27 it currently holds. Kadima, headed by Shaul Mofaz, would win 10 Knesset seats. Yair Lapid's new Yesh Atid Party (Future), would get 11 seats as well, while Labor would win 18. However, if the former journalist joins forces with Tzipi Livni, their party would win as many as 18 mandates – stealing four seats from Labor.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4222427,00.html

on the 'bright' side perhaps this super majority will give the Knesset a bulwark of sorts against the smaller religious parties

[bemildred]

13. I just dunno.

Seems safe to assume the new coalition reflects a desire to avoid elections and to restore a semblance of legitimacy to the present government.

I think the sequence starts with the criticism and dropping (for the moment) of the "Bomb Iran" initiative.

As a good Amurkin, I am always skeptical of dramatic last-minute "unity" compromise solutions of this sort. But it is easy to be too clever by half in these things, sometimes things are what they look like.

Beyond that, much depends on how much one thinks the events of the last few weeks were manipulated, and how much a reaction to the unfolding of events. Which you choose reflects greatly on how one interprets everything that follows.

So I'm inclined to wait and see.

[bemildred]

10. Bradley approves:

Netanyahu's next Israel: Bad for the right, good for the Jews

http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/a-special-place-in-hell/netanyahu-s-next-israel-bad-for-the-right-good-for-the-jews-1.429003

[bemildred]

11. David Cameron and Nick Clegg to 'relaunch UK coalition'

Compare & contrast.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014115823