Do we have a Plan B for marriage?

[Pab Sungenis]

Let's face it: there's a very good chance we're going to lose the marriage cases before the Supreme Court.

Four Justices are either on the record as being anti-gay marriage or going to vote in lockstep with Scalia like always. We have three votes locked up. That means it's going to be up to Kennedy and Roberts to vote with us if we are going to win.

If the Coury votes to enshrine bigotry, as is more than possible, what is out next step for marriage?

[Tien1985]

1. I think one thing

is to get married anyway.

I think we need droves of couples getting married, openly. Mostly to get the point across that they WILL NOT determine who and who is NOT "getting married". There are so many places in life, besides the Federal level that ask your marital status. "Married", "Husband", "Wife" are words we need to take. In the very least, let us make this fundamental change at the ground level.

At the same time, many people have been, or will be married in church or synagogue that supports and affirms their commitment. Another angle to come from is religious discrimination. Why is it that one person's religious beliefs are being respected and not other's? I say this as an atheist. There is no reason why Congos or UUs should be treated differently than Catholics.

Just my two cents.

[MNBrewer]

2. Plan B will be Obama's original Plan A

State-by-state recognition of same sex marriages.

[JackBeck]

5. Which is also Freedom to Marry's Plan A, outlined in their Roadmap to Victory.

"Freedom to Marry’s goal is to end the exclusion of same-sex couples from marriage once and for all. Drawing on the history of other social justice movements in the United States, we know that victory will ultimately come from persuading either Congress or the Supreme Court to end marriage discrimination. To achieve that victory, we must secure the freedom to marry in a critical mass of states and grow majority support across the country."

http://www.freedomtomarry.org/pages/roadmap-to-victory

[MNBrewer]

6. That's not exactly the same as the State's Rights approach Obama favored as Plan A

before he evolved.

[JackBeck]

9. You must be new to politics.

Unless you are aware of the conversations between the Obama administration, Evan and Marc, I would take back that last comment.

[MNBrewer]

11. and you must have great "faith" in Obama

Which I do not. Obama was perfectly happy to see both Separate and Unequal, as well as a patchwork of state laws with regard to Same Sex Marriage. But don't let your blinders bother you.

[LonePirate]

3. I don't see us losing either case.

The Prop 8 case is rock solid and the Prop 8 proponents are as feeble and inept as any side could be.

As for the DOMA case, there has agreement from several district courts that the law (specifically the section being challenged) is unconstitutional. I think that will hold some weight, especially with Roberts.

I think Kennedy will side with the four liberals on both cases. Public opinion is ahead of the court on both cases and I think Kennedy is slightly more advanced on social issues such as these two cases.

Roberts is the true swing vote on both. While I think he will agree to strike down both Prop 8 and part of DOMA, he could side with the three Teabaggers on the court.

Interestingly, if the 10th Amendment angle is argued in the DOMA case, it might be enough to swing Alito to a 7-2 verdict. There is no way Scalia or Thomas will vote to throw out either Prop 8 or DOMA regardless of the arguments or the decisions by the lower courts.

As it stands now, I am predicting a 6-3 victory for us in both cases.

[LeftofObama]

8. I think so too.

Stranger things have been known to happen, but I just don't see us losing either one. If we do I will be VERY surprised.

[pinto]

4. Don't discount the court's constitutional commitment. They may surprise you.

Some of the appellate court arguments are solid, from this layman's POV. And those that lost at the appellate level have flimsy cases, constitutionally. Those are the ones SCOTUS has to review.

SCOTUS doesn't make civil law, of course. They rule on the constitutional standing of cases brought to the court. So, we'll see.

[Warpy]

7. Yes, take the long view

Don't assume that because a bunch of reactionaries on the USSC are pretending it's still 1950 in America that you've lost the fight--far from it. Public opinion has changed and continues to change and most of the public are now with you on this issue, that the human rights conferred by legal marriage should be open to all consenting adults.

You've actually won the war already. You just need to wait for 5 idiots to do us a favor and either retire or die off to complete it and make it the law of the land.

[dbackjon]

10. Send large amounts of fatty food to Scalia, Thomas and Alito.