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LostOne4Ever

(9,286 posts)
Fri Mar 17, 2023, 06:04 PM Mar 2023

Debunked: No, 80% Of Trans Youth Do Not Detransition

Debunked: No, 80% Of Trans Youth Do Not Detransition
This is one of the most common arguments brought up in anti-trans hearings. The idea that 80% of trans people "will desist" is a complete lie that is easy to debunk.

Erin Reed
3 hr ago

One of the most common myths heard in anti-trans hearings is that most trans kids will desist if they are allowed to go through puberty. Sometimes specific numbers are given, such as 80% of trans kids desist. This statistic has been cited as low as 60% and as high as 99% in various legislatures. In Montana, a representative used this statistic to justify passing a medical ban. The Heritage Foundation has also pushed this myth. Nearly every hearing on this topic includes this myth. The desistance myth is one of the most persistent falsehoods and has been used against the trans community for decades. It is misleading and inaccurate as it comes from outdated DSM-4 criteria and decades-old data. Newer studies show that 97.5% of transgender youth are persistent in their gender identities. Let's examine how this falsehood originated, how it is misused, and what current research reveals about the rarity of desistence and detransition.

See an example of this claim being used on Fox News:

?s=20

The DSM-IV, released in 1994, spelled out how to diagnose mental health conditions including “Gender Identity Disorder” (no longer a disorder). In this manual, clinicians made their first attempt to diagnose transgender youth. These first diagnostic criteria were an admiral early attempt, but contained a fatal flaw in how transgender youth were diagnosed: the diagnosis bafflingly did not require a youth to identify as another gender. Instead, it focused on factors such as “preference for cross-sex games and activities” and “preference for friends of the other sex.”

Problems with this diagnostic criteria should be immediately recognizable today: a cisgender tomboy with absolutely no identification as a boy would be diagnosed with gender identity disorder under these definitions. A cisgender boy who likes to put on an Elsa costume and play with girls could be diagnosed with gender identity disorder under these definitions. They were woefully inadequate for judging if youth were transgender. They also came during a time when youth transition did not exist as a medical practice, and so there were no real clinical guidelines on their treatment - thus, little effort was made to change the criteria which were primarily used for discussion in therapist offices and not to support or deny medical transition care.

In 2013, the DSM-V was published and in it, many corrections were made on how gender dysphoric youth are diagnosed. The most important correction was the requirement that a transgender youth demonstrate an insistent, persistent, and consistent desire or identification as the gender that the patient believes they are. The individual factors were also changed and adjusted. These diagnostic criteria were much more stringent, and are the diagnostic criteria used today.

See the changes:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F91dbcb97-95d9-46a9-8b4b-3c835f15f4bf_1096x1188.png


More at link:
https://erininthemorn.substack.com/p/debunked-no-80-of-trans-youth-do?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=994764&post_id=109007289&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email
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Debunked: No, 80% Of Trans Youth Do Not Detransition (Original Post) LostOne4Ever Mar 2023 OP
I really want to emphasize this part LostOne4Ever Mar 2023 #1
80-90% is not a believable statistic for very much in the world bucolic_frolic Mar 2023 #2
No freaking kidding! ShazzieB Mar 2023 #6
Just out of curiosity, and for the sake of discussion ... let's assume for the moment Hugh_Lebowski Mar 2023 #3
I don't deal in hypotheticals when we have numbers LostOne4Ever Mar 2023 #4
Oh, I agree, fuck that ... Hugh_Lebowski Mar 2023 #5
Thank you for posting this LetMyPeopleVote Mar 2023 #7
Erin Reed is the one who deserves the thanks LostOne4Ever Mar 2023 #8

LostOne4Ever

(9,286 posts)
1. I really want to emphasize this part
Fri Mar 17, 2023, 06:15 PM
Mar 2023
Modern studies show a much higher persistence rate as well as important factors behind detransition. In 2015, a study was done on thousands of transgender people, including detransitioners. Only 8% of peoplereported ever detransitioning - ten times lower than the 80% often cited. Of these 2,000 detransitioners, the largest sample size of any study, 62% of them reported that they only detransitioned temporarily. Among the remaining detransitioners, the most common reason for detransitioning given was parental pressure and discrimination. Only 0.4% of people reported detransitioning because they were no longer trans.

Among trans youth, desistance and detransition rates are incredibly low. The most recent study in the prestigious journal Pediatrics, one of the only studies that use modern criteria, showed that 97.5% of trans youth continue to identify as trans on a 5 year follow-up. The sample size was also larger than all previous sample sizes of this population: 317 youth.
 

Hugh_Lebowski

(33,643 posts)
3. Just out of curiosity, and for the sake of discussion ... let's assume for the moment
Fri Mar 17, 2023, 06:23 PM
Mar 2023

that the number is, in reality, some non-zero percentage.

I don't know either way, but it seems like a fairly safe bet it's not 0%.

As you say, numbers like 80-99% are demonstrably inaccurate.

Is there any particular, non-zero percentage ... where you might speculate that ... that would register as a 'significant amount' such that maybe 'we' should 'care about it'?

2%? 5%? 10%? 30%?

Again I don't know the number.

But if there's a number that DOES actually *matter*, what would that number be, assuming it's neither 0% nor 100%?

Could you pick one?

Yes, these are the kinds of large-scale questions that I enjoy pondering, and I don't mean to offend anyone, so sorry in advance if I did. Not my intent, believe me.

But this is how these assholes get away with their nonsense in the political realm. They know we can't pick a number, nor can we positively prove ... there's any particular number that's real.

So they're free to just f*** around like this. It's infuriating, but at the same time ... an interesting question to ponder nonetheless.

LostOne4Ever

(9,286 posts)
4. I don't deal in hypotheticals when we have numbers
Fri Mar 17, 2023, 06:28 PM
Mar 2023

1-2%

That is the “regret” rate. Meaning for every confused cis person they save from their own choices, that 99 trans people are forced to experience that same hell with no choice in the matter.

Fuck that!

 

Hugh_Lebowski

(33,643 posts)
5. Oh, I agree, fuck that ...
Fri Mar 17, 2023, 06:53 PM
Mar 2023

We can easily dismiss 1-2.5% (which the last study you mentioned said) and it's clearly, clearly unfair to deny someone any sort of care based on that low a number.

If you're confident it's that low, nevermind my earlier query

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