Chicago murders decline 42% in first quarter 2013

[jimmy the one]

Three months after Chicago notched the most murders in the nation, officials are touting a dramatic downturn in crime.
In the first quarter of the year, murders dropped 42 percent over the same period last year and shootings were down 27 percent -- reductions that authorities say were fueled by anti-gang initiatives.
But March, in particular, brought good news for the city and its beleaguered police force: murders down 69 percent, with 36 fewer people slain than in March 2012.
The encouraging figures come after a series of crimes that made Chicago a symbol of urban gun violence.
The nation's third-largest city ended 2012 with the most slayings: 506.

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/01/17554426-murders-fall-42-percent-in-americas-deadliest-city-chicago?lite

On a strict ratio basis of 506 divided by 4 quarters for 126 murders per quarter in 2012, a 42% decrease would be about 50 murders less for spring 2013, for about 76. Bravo I guess. That might set a new record low if it holds up all year.

Of course, expect to see gunnuts claim it was the new influx of guns into chicago which done did the trick, right? 200,000 new Foids in Illinois, tho last I saw about 30 - 40,000 new foids in chicago.
I hear Pink Foid is having a concert this summer in chicago. Gimme back my bullets.
I'm not gonna go.

[lunasun]

1. Floyd

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/9964558/Pink-Floyds-Roger-Waters-pays-tribute-to-father-at-war-grave.html
Im not sure which one is Pink.

[hack89]

2. It was due to a lot of overtime for cops

as they saturated the problem areas.

Has nothing to do with gun control.

[DonP]

3. It's all the way down to 2011 levels!

And all it took was 40% more police overtime and a colder Spring!

2012 was an unusually high murder rate compared to past years. But this year, with much colder Spring weather than 2012, the rate is about the same compared to the 2011, 2010 and 2009 numbers.

Chicago Murder rate ...

2013 - 70
2012 - 120
2011 - 75
2010 - 75
2009 - 70

For a street cops eye view of what's really happening go here. http://www.secondcitycop.blogspot.com/

But if you want to buy Rahm's excuses for his lack of crime control, you'll probably buy into why he needed to close only the black and Latino majority schools, to allow his buddy's charter schools to flourish and profit, but feel free to be gullible because he has a "D" behind his name and you're reaching to find gun control working somewhere.

[jimmy the one]

5. shut you all up

donp: ..you're reaching to find gun control working somewhere.

.. then why did I include this in the OP: murders dropped 42% over same period last year and shootings down 27% -- reductions that authorities say were fueled by anti-gang initiatives.
And the link I provided wrote this: the advent of warmer weather {in 2012 not 2013} was partly to blame for the disturbance because it brings young people outside. .. Police Dept has put more officers on the street

I provided 3 reasons why the murder rate declined 42% & not one related to guncontrol.
The bigger local DU news is this apparently shuts 'you all' up. What happened to pro gun machismo just a few months back on how chicago's gun control was such an abject failure since murder up in 2012?:

donp, jan 3 2013: .. If these laws are working so well, explain the 508 deaths last year in Chicago? http://sync.democraticunderground.com/117299682 Um, warmer weather in chicago in 2012?

shadowrider It was, how do you explain 508 shooting deaths in Chicago?

friendlyicon, comparing chi to houston: &quot C)hicago was higher in the 4 more violent crimes, assault robbery rape & murder" So what good were those gun restrictions?

DonP, JANUARY 7, 2013: 4,037 new gun permits, not just handguns, is next to nothing statistically With 2.7 million people that's almost a rise in gun ownership of .01%!Except ... you don't have "more handguns" in Chicago ... That's a popular gun grabber myth, that immediately after McDonald everybody is suddenly carrying in Chicago and stocked their house with guns.
Between the requirement for training (city council still hasn't defined the required training) and range time at an approved range (and there are no approved ranges in the city) in the current set of Chicago laws and the need to still have your gun registered with the police, there hasn't been a whole lot of change in the number of legal guns in Chicago.
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/1172100992

Clames, jan 7, 2013: Chicago tried that gun ban thing. It was a failure too.

No, I'm not ascribing the 42% decline to guncontrol efforts in chicago, just that the new statistics, well, shuts you all up.

[DonP]

6. Umm, your wharfgarble word salad shuts no one up, that's another group you're thinking of

But you probably feel much more at home in a group where any dissonance is solved by banning everyone that doesn't agree with you.

As far as Chicago crime goes, I'm not really sure celebrating one month worth of reduced murders in an exceptionally cold Spring is the way to go on this one.

Let's wait and see how the rest of the year turns out, now that the weather is bringing the criminals out on the street.

Last weekend, when it warmed up for a couple of days, we had 200 teenagers basically rioting on North Michigan Avenue (28 arrests for assault) and several robberies and assaults on the Red Line trains by teen-aged girls.

The police union and firefighters still have no contract and the police force is down over 1000 officers from where it's supposed to be.

[Skip Intro]

10. LOL and Damn! +1.

How people expect to solve a problem without first being honest about the problem is beyond me.

[jimmy the one]

11. southside

Chicago Murder (total) (approx for spring quarter)...
2013 - 70
2012 - 120
2011 - 75 ... 2010 - 75 ... 2009 - 70
mid 90's: 200 - 250

Viewers will note that from the mid 90's, the spring murder totals for chicago have decreased from approx 200 down to 70 in 2009, all while chicago's handgun ban was in effect - which might or might not have a causal affect, but tends to disprove claims that chicago handgun ban was a failure.
Viewers will also note that since chicago handgun ban was lifted in 2010, murder total for 2012 spiked to 120, tho likely attributable to warmer weather rather than 'more guns'. However, the 120 spike will go down as a 'post ban' statistic.

donp: I'm not really sure celebrating one month worth of reduced murders in an exceptionally cold Spring is the way to go on this one.

Wow, as well as shutting at least some of you up, it's put you verbally on the defensive.

Last weekend, when it warmed up for a couple of days, we had 200 teenagers basically rioting on North Michigan Avenue (28 arrests for assault) and several robberies and assaults on the Red Line trains by teen-aged girls.

erk!: I'm not really sure celebrating one weekend on an exceptionally warm weekend is the way to go on this one.

And how are things on cicero, ashland & garfield boulevards these days, south side?
Stay off the don ryan.

[beevul]

12. In spite of how many new gun owners, and how many more guns in Chicago? N/T

[slackmaster]

4. The rate is still ridiculously high. Something is very wrong with SOME people in that city.

[ileus]

7. Good news for Chicago.

[petronius]

8. This article supports* something that is often suggested here in the RKBA Group

Namely, that the best approaches to reducing crime and violence are not gun control, they are active policing, education, economic development, jobs, and social opportunities. Seems like the powers-that-be in Chicago are crediting exactly this thinking:

In the first quarter of the year, murders dropped 42 percent over the same period last year and shootings were down 27 percent -- reductions that authorities say were fueled by anti-gang initiatives.

...

Since Pendleton's murder, the Police Department has put more officers on the street and City Hall is beefing up after-school and summer job programs to stop youths from falling in with gangs.

* With the caveat that quarter-to-quarter and/or year-to-year trends really don't tell us much...

[spin]

9. True. Better enforcement trumps "feel good" gun control laws....

especially when coupled with after-school and summer job programs.

Much of the firearm violence is Chicago is the result of drug gangs fighting over turf. That is a law enforcement problem.

Even if Chicago made buying and legally carrying firearms easy, it is unrealistic to expect armed citizens to be able to stop a drive-by shooting.

Of course for better enforcement to work, the criminal justice system has to punish those who are caught.

McCarthy: Increased Police Presence Lowers Violent Crime in February
Updated March 4, 2013 2:35pm
March 4, 2013 2:35pm | By Erica Demarest, DNAinfo Reporter/Producer

NORTH LAWNDALE — Violent crime is down in "hotspots" where at least 200 cops working overtime conduct nightly patrols, and 200 more officers could soon hit the streets to target other problem areas of the city, Police Supt. Garry McCarthy said Monday.

***snip***

McCarthy said his department needs legislative help in the form of mandatory three-year prison sentences for gun possession, and a law that would require convicted criminals to complete at least 85 percent of their jail time without parole.

“There is a disturbing trend of convicted criminals not being held accountable for violent behavior, and then ending up back on street,” McCarthy said....emphasis added

He said in the first nine weeks of 2013, officers seized 1,220 firearms, or about 20 guns a day.
“I keep telling everybody to go take a look at New York,” the former NYPD cop said, noting New York City has minimum sentencing laws and strict requirements for reporting lost and stolen guns.
Read more: http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20130304/north-lawndale/mccarthy-increased-police-presence-lowers-violent-crime-february#ixzz2PM3kqAWk

[jimmy the one]

13. hot time in the city

Donp, APRIL 2013, his first reply to this chicago 42% murder decline thread:
2012 was an unusually high murder rate {sic} compared to past years. But this year, with much colder Spring weather than 2012, the rate is about the same compared to the 2011, 2010 and 2009 numbers.

Donp, 3 months back, JANUARY 3, 2013, : .. If these laws are working so well, explain the 508 deaths last year in Chicago? http://sync.democraticunderground.com/117299682

Uh, donp, to answer your concern in paragraph 2, reread your first paragraph above, where you yourself attributed chicago's springtime higher murder total in 2012, to warmer weather - which would of course have a lot to do with the yearly total since the yearly diff is ~50.

That's what I was getting at, 'you all' can argue whichever way is convenient for you in any effort to bash gun control.
In january 2013 donp suggests it was 'gun control laws' the reason for the 2012 murder spike, now april 2013 it wasn't guncontrol laws causing the decline of 42%, it was the 'warmer spring' of 2012.
Often you all slip up like now.

donp, april 2013: : ..you're reaching to find gun control working somewhere.

Not as much as 'you all' reach to find a way to bash it.