America has more guns in fewer hands than ever before

[GGJohn]

X posted from other group.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/03/05/america-has-more-guns-in-fewer-hands-than-ever-before%E2%80%8B/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=

Problem with this is that it can't be proven that there are less homes with firearms in them, more than likely, more and more firearms owners are refusing to admit that they do have a firearm to an anonymous person on the phone, in person, on an internet poll.

I know that if some stranger asked me if I had a firearm in the home, I'd say no.

The controllers love to trot out these bogus polls to try to prove their contention that less citizens now own guns, but judging by all the new FOID's issued by the Illinois State Police after their new CCW law passed, their claims are bullshit.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

1. Val Kilmer said it best

More guns in fewer hands, indeed.

[BeyondGeography]

2. I think the point about hunting is interesting

It wouldn't be the first outdoorsy/sporting tradition to take a hit in the personal electronics age. As such, it makes the numbers more believable, to me at least.

I also, as a "controller," think it makes the numbers less worth celebrating. Hunters are the least dangerous, least likely people to screw up with a gun. Plus they do perform a service of sorts.

[davepc]

3. People aren't telling a stranger on the phone that they have firearms in their house?

Shocked, I say.

[NaturalHigh]

5. No kidding.

Seems like a good way to get on a list like the one in New York where gun owners were publicly identified by name and address in the newspaper.

Edited to add link, for those who think the anti-gun crowd is too virtuous and pure to stoop to such underhanded tactics.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/12/newspaper-publishes-gun-owners-names-and-addresses/

[Duckhunter935]

4. I think you are spot on

with your analysis. I would never state I have a firearm to any pollster.

[pablo_marmol]

6. The true litmus test is how many folks are taking introductory shooting lessons.

I don't know what's been going on for the last few years, but I recall that a number of years ago - don't recall exactly when - the instruction classes at the range where I shoot began getting booked 6 months out.......unheard of until that point.

Edited to add: Another indicator would be new gun ranges.......because that would obviously reflect increased demand. In my city, we haven't had any ranges close down, and we've added a huge new range.

[ileus]

7. well considering you can be fired or denied various services for owing a firearm....

What kind of dummy would ever admit owning a firearm? Your kids could get kicked out of school, or CPS drop by your house on a tip...maybe be denied as a foster parent. Fired from your job for a picture on facebook. There is no end to the punishment they want to inflict on 2A progressives.

[Lurks Often]

8. There are more gun owners today then in 1973

Using rate of ownership isn't entirely accurate. Both rate of ownership and actual number of owners needs to viewed together.

And with 318 million people in this country, 32% (or the 34% I saw from another report) is still a lot of people owning firearms.

It's more work then I feel like doing, but it might be interesting to chart where the US population is growing and compare gun ownership to that. Gun ownership has always been higher in the suburban and rural areas of the the country then in the urban areas. It might also be interesting to see how the economy is doing against gun ownership rates as well. Firearms, even used ones, aren't inexpensive if you are living paycheck to paycheck.

Like many issues, it is far more complex then what a couple of paragraphs on an internet discussion board would suggest

[jimmy the one]

12. correction to lurks often

lurks often: And with 318 million people in this country, 32% (or the 34% I saw from another report) is still a lot of people owning firearms.

That is not personal gun ownership, 32% is the percentage of households with guns in them.
Only 22.4% personaly own a firearm, or 2 people in 9 own a firearm.

Table 2 shows that in 2014 22.4% of adults personally owned a firearm. This is up slightly from a record low of 20.6% in 2010. There has been little change from 2006 to 2014. Personal ownership in 2014 is down 8.1 percentage points from a high of 30.5% in 1985.
http://www.norc.org/PDFs/GSS%20Reports/Trends%20in%20Gun%20Ownership%20in%20the%20United%20States%201972-2014.pdf

The household ownership of firearms has declined in recent decades. Table 1 (left side) shows that the 31.0% of households reported having a firearm in 2014, essentially tying with 2010 for the lowest level of {Household} gun ownership in the last 40-some years. This is a decline of about 17 percentage points from the peak ownership years in 1977-1980.
Based on an earlier analysis of those who refused to say whether or not there was a firearm in their household,1 the refusers were reallocated as probably living in a household with a firearm or not living in such a household. This allocation indicates that just under 35% of adults lived in a household with a firearm in both 2014 and 2010. This represents a decline of over 16 percentage point from the peak average of 51.1% in 1976-1982.
.... One of the main reasons for the decline in household firearm ownership is the decrease in the popularity of hunting (Table 3). In 2014, only 15.4% of adults lived in households in which they, their spouse, or both were hunters. This is the lowest level of hunters since the highest level of 31.6% adults being hunters or married to a hunter in 1977.

[oneshooter]

9. Gee, I guess all the new issued FOID cards in IL. don't count.

[DonP]

11. Naw, they just got FOID cards to balance their wallet out.

250,000 new cards grew the total count from 1.5 million to 1.75 million card holders in two years.

Heck, there was a waiting line for pictures and applications at several gun stores. A lot of couples getting them at the same time. Matches with what I see in my classes of couples learning together.

But I was "informed" that Illinois was an anomaly and only had those because we passed concealed carry.

[Eleanors38]

10. Another indicator is a state(s) requiring registration of gun-owners...

and not merely the guns themselves. If the state experiences a significant uptick in number of registered owners, that may infer an uptick nationally.

[Big_Mike]

13. I was called and asked

I refused to answer the question. It is no one's business but mine. When pressed for an answer, I told them to go to hell and hung up.

[GGJohn]

14. As I suspect the majority of gun owners do.

There is no way for a poll to be accurate as far as firearm ownership, too many of us would tell some anonymous voice on a phone, internet or even door to door poll no, none of your business, or just refuse to answer.

[NYC_SKP]

15. More US household have guns than ever before, I'll wager.

Of course, this would be impossible to prove.

What seems certain is that fewer people will honestly answer such polls.

[jimmy the one]

16. serious flaws

ggjohn: The controllers love to trot out these bogus polls to try to prove their contention that less citizens now own guns, but judging by all the new FOID's issued by the Illinois State Police after their new CCW law passed, their claims are bullshit.

I'd like to point out serious flaws in your, um, reasoning.

First, the title of your own OP contradicts what you're saying.
Your title: America has more guns in fewer hands than ever before

That would tend to support the several polls which show declining gun ownership rates, or at least would not oppose them.
ggjohn's own link: where are all those newly-manufactured guns going? Most likely, they're being added to the stockpiles of people who already own guns. If gun sales are up and household-level ownership rates are down, that's the only real logical conclusion.

Secondly; flash, Illinois is but one state in the United States of which there are 50. What happens in Illinois (4% of national population) does not necessarily apply to the whole USA. 'Correlation does not prove causation' would apply here, if what you imply is even true.
I'm astounded that no gun enthusiasts corrected ggjohn on this error. Astounded.

Third, Illinois recently allowed shall issue concealed carry after discontinuing it's handgun ban, which tend to inflate early post-year gun ownership rates. That you try to link Illinois rising FOID cards with national gun ownership rates is ridiculous.

gg: .. it can't be proven that there are less homes with firearms in them, more than likely, more and more firearms owners are refusing to admit that they do have a firearm to an anonymous person on the phone, in person, on an internet poll.

Some polls I have seen have a column which accounts for 'refused to answer', & percents have been rising over the past couple decades, but not significantly to overall rates. And since this is disclosed, shouldn't be given much concern as to validity of the polls. They certainly shouldn't be used to label reputable polls 'bogus'.

[Lizzie Poppet]

18. Problem:

Jt1: Some polls I have seen have a column which accounts for 'refused to answer', & percents have been rising over the past couple decades, but not significantly to overall rates. And since this is disclosed, shouldn't be given much concern as to validity of the polls.

Sure...but I very strongly suspect that those who refuse to answer the question are nowhere near as numerous as those who instead answer in the negative. If one is concerned over admitting to a stranger that one has firearms in the home, the obviously safer course of action is to simply say "no, I don't have guns in the home."

[GGJohn]

20. No shit it contradicts what I'm saying,

that's the point of this thread.
I copied it from the other group that allows no dissent.

Can you definitively say that firearm ownership is down? Can you prove it?
Can you say that most firearms owners will tell some anonymous pollster that, yes, they do have a firearm in the home?

I suspect not.

How can a poll be reputable when there's no way to determine, short of searching every home in America, which would be a massive 4A violation, if there is actually a firearm in the home or not?

[beevul]

21. "several polls which show declining gun ownership rates"

There are NO polls that show a declining gun ownership rate.

There are only polls of people that "report" a certain way.


I'd like to see the same criteria you use for your argument here applied by you to DGUs, and the same "trust" on your part given to the self reported answers to polls about them, that you give to these polls.


We all know that isn't going to happen though.

[Lizzie Poppet]

17. Non-verified surveys are utterly useless for this sort of question.

Unless there is a way to physically verify the accuracy of the answers, any survey on a matter in which there is motivation to lie to the researcher is essentially worthless. Possession of firearms is unquestionably one of these matters.

[GGJohn]

19. That was my contention when I first starting seeing these bogus polls.

Unless the pollsters can physically ascertain that there are no firearms in the home, then there is no way to definitively say that firearms ownership is down.