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Wed Aug 5, 2015, 10:28 AM

"The crucial variable is not the presence of firearms...

...but the degree to which young people are successfully socialized into non-criminal, responsible behavior patterns."

What a shocking assertion!

http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_03_3_filley.pdf

Forbidden Fruit
When Prohibition Increases the Harm It Is Supposed to Reduce

My thesis is that because reducing only the harmful types or aspects of certain behaviors is difficult, governments often resort to prohibiting all types or aspects of the behavior, both the harmful and the benign. Such flat prohibition often leads to an increase, rather than a decrease, of the harmful behavior.

22 replies, 1736 views

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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply "The crucial variable is not the presence of firearms... (Original post)
discntnt_irny_srcsm Aug 2015 OP
jimmy the one Aug 2015 #1
Straw Man Aug 2015 #2
Eleanors38 Aug 2015 #6
discntnt_irny_srcsm Aug 2015 #7
Eleanors38 Aug 2015 #10
Oneka Aug 2015 #3
discntnt_irny_srcsm Aug 2015 #4
the band leader Aug 2015 #13
Eleanors38 Aug 2015 #5
the band leader Aug 2015 #8
discntnt_irny_srcsm Aug 2015 #9
russ1943 Aug 2015 #17
Straw Man Aug 2015 #18
russ1943 Aug 2015 #21
Straw Man Aug 2015 #22
stone space Aug 2015 #11
discntnt_irny_srcsm Aug 2015 #12
Nuclear Unicorn Aug 2015 #14
LineLineLineLineNew Reply *
sarisataka Aug 2015 #15
discntnt_irny_srcsm Aug 2015 #16
beergood Aug 2015 #20
Straw Man Aug 2015 #19

Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 11:24 AM

1. I/WE disagree, it's A crucial variable

dscntn: "The crucial variable is not the presence of firearms.....

PBS (public broadcasting) had an explanation yday evening, excerpts below:

Judy: Chief Flynn, to you first. Milwaukee, an 88% {increase} — in homicides just since last year. What is going on?
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/caused-dramatic-tipping-point-deadly-shootings/

EDWARD FLYNN, Chief, Mailwaukee Police Department: Well, we’re seeing a number of different dynamics playing out. Certainly, one of the things we have seen is a dramatic increase in the use of firearms, particularly semiautomatic pistols, in our violent deaths. We have seen that our shootings are up significantly, our homicides are up dramatically. Over 85% of our homicides are committed with firearms, and, of those, over 85% are committed with semiautomatic pistols.
We have recently passed a ludicrously weak gun law that allowed basically concealed carry permits to be granted to people who meet the statutory definition of career criminals. We have also got a situation where no matter how many times you are arrested for carrying a gun illegally, it remains a misdemeanor, even though a second offense for carrying marijuana can be prosecuted as a felony. So very weak and relatively recent gun laws are certainly a major contributor to our dramatic spike in firearms-related violence.


JUDY WOODRUFF: Chief Dotson, what about in Saint Louis, a 64% increase over last year? Is it all about guns?

COL. SAM DOTSON, Chief, St. Louis Metropolitan Police Dept: I’m seeing exactly the same thing that they’re seeing in Milwaukee, the availability of guns. We have a constitutional amendment in our state that was passed within the last year that makes it an inalienable right to have a gun. We have had courts that have declined to prosecute convicted felons that we arrest with guns. I’m seeing exactly the same thing, high-capacity magazines, a willingness to use the guns, and a judiciary that sometimes doesn’t follow through on the prosecution.
We had research done from a university here. Of about 250 cases of unlawful use of a weapon, over 61% of those cases got probation. That means those people are right back out on the street committing crimes.


Flynn: our firearms law went into effect in November of 2011. And almost immediately, we started to see an increase in the use of pistols. The tie-in to crime in Milwaukee through the use of a pistol in a crime, the biggest single number is under three months. Our firearms are easily bought legally. Ninety percent of the crime guns we seize at the scene of a crime were bought legally and sold legally, because secondary sales don’t require background checks.
It’s not the only variable. It’s significant components to our violence problem here and in other similarly situated cities. But certainly the easy availability of firearms, of large-capacity magazines is resulting in many more bullets being used at our crime scenes and many more guns being used at our crime scenes.


Dotson: the Ferguson effect, and about how some departments may see officers that have a little bit of trepidation when they go into an enforcement situation. We see criminals that have a little feeling of empowerment around the movement that’s going on.
So I think when you layer that in with the availability of guns, the trepidation of police officers and in Saint Louis a little bit now an uptick in the use of heroin, crack cocaine, difficult to find



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Response to jimmy the one (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 11:49 AM

2. I have one question.

"We have recently passed a ludicrously weak gun law that allowed basically concealed carry permits to be granted to people who meet the statutory definition of career criminals."

How many of the perpetrators of these crimes of violence were concealed carry permit holders?

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Response to Straw Man (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 04:49 PM

6. And the wind hummed and whistled eerily in the fetid corridors of silence.

 

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Response to Eleanors38 (Reply #6)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 05:23 PM

7. The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls

~~~
And tenement halls
And whispered in the sounds of silence.

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Reply #7)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 06:28 PM

10. And they called the wind Mariah!

 

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Response to jimmy the one (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 01:16 PM

3. Um.

Ninety percent of the crime guns we seize at the scene of a crime were bought legally and sold legally, because secondary sales don’t require background checks.


So how would BGC's for private sales change this percentage?

Adding a background check, cannot make a previously legal purchase suddenly become unlawful.

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Response to jimmy the one (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 01:50 PM

4. Sad for you

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Response to jimmy the one (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 6, 2015, 07:20 AM

13. a couple things about that

 

Of known 2011 homicide suspects in Milwaukee, 93 percent are black, while 4 percent are white and Latino

In the city of 597,867 people, there were 91 murders in 2012, with 80 percent of the victims being black and 75 percent of the known suspects also being black.

of the 96 total homicides committed this year, 78 of the total homicide victims were African American. Put another way, 81% of 2015 Milwaukee homicide victims were African American.

Wisconsin tops nation in black joblessness, study finds Wisconsin's black unemployment rate is twice the overall national unemployment rate at the peak of the recession — 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2009. The issue is most acute in metro Milwaukee...

Heroin deaths in Milwaukee County jump by 72% Heroin-related deaths in Milwaukee County skyrocketed by 72% last year compared with 2013, according to data released Wednesday by the Milwaukee County medical examiner's office.

Urban terrorists:” Wild 100s gang blamed for “extraordinary amount” of crime in Milwaukee ...in perhaps the most high-profile recent case linked to this gang, 13-month-old Bill Thao lost his life on December 27th. The baby was playing in the living room of a home near 73rd and Mill when he was shot and killed. Accused heroin dealer Darmequaye Cohill is charged — accused of shooting into the wrong home, killing the child


Shall we ignore these statistical realities and continue to pretend that guns are responsible for the crime problem?

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 04:46 PM

5. You know, that sounds like a progressive liberal speaking...

 

...at least that was the once-advocated approach to societal problems, esp. those involving violence.

As foreign to some as Ruby and the Romantics.

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Original post)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 05:35 PM

8. It's primarily a drug and gang problem, not a gun control problem.

 

There is a powerful resistance to certain statistical realities here in America which inevitably leads to blaming inanimate objects for violent criminal acts.

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Response to the band leader (Reply #8)

Wed Aug 5, 2015, 05:50 PM

9. Sometimes a carpenter gets lazy about...

...making a trip back to the tool box and, when all you have is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail.

Legislators makes laws and when you can only make laws...

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Response to the band leader (Reply #8)

Thu Aug 6, 2015, 03:06 PM

17. Gangs account for around 13% THIRTEEN PERCENT of homicides.

Last edited Fri Aug 7, 2015, 03:50 PM - Edit history (2)

Gang-related homicides typically accounted for around 13 percent of all homicides annually…In a typical year in the so-called “gang capitals” of Chicago and Los Angeles, around half of all homicides are gang-related; these two cities alone accounted for approximately one in four gang homicides recorded in the NYGS from 2011 to 2012. https://www.nationalgangcenter.gov/Survey-Analysis/Measuring-the-Extent-of-Gang-Problems.
13% is considerably less than a primary cause IMO.

The National Gang Center (NGC) is a project jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) and the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA). The NGC program works to further the mission of DOJ by providing national leadership, information, training, and technical assistance that target gangs and street gang members of all ages. Serving researchers, policymakers, and practitioners nationally, NGC activities contribute to reductions in gang-related crime and violence and gang activity by juveniles and adults.

http://www.nationalgangcenter.gov/Survey-Analysis/Measuring-the-Extent-of-Gang-Problems#homicidesnumber

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Response to russ1943 (Reply #17)

Fri Aug 7, 2015, 01:44 AM

18. Dead link.

In any case, 13% of all homicides? Weren't we talking about gun homicides? The "crucial variable," and all that?

Let's add in killings related to the drug trade, whether or not they are carried out by recognized gangs. What are the stats then?

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Response to Straw Man (Reply #18)

Fri Aug 7, 2015, 04:48 PM

21. Gang killings are frequently exaggerated.

I added a working link.
I responded to the gang reference because IMO there seems to be a frequently expressed opinion that the number of killings in this country are largely the work of gangs. I found a reputable source to provide data that those claims regarding this aspect of the problem are frequently exaggerated.
Yes, gangs are a problem and their contribution to crime is appalling.
The 13% is of all homicides, as I posted and the National Gang Center presents in their link.
I don’t claim to know nor did I comment about “killings related to the drug trade”. If you wish to research & provide information you think relevant, have at it.

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Response to russ1943 (Reply #21)

Fri Aug 7, 2015, 06:11 PM

22. Again, the topic is GUN homicides.

Your link posts a percentage of all homicides. The number of gun homicides would have to be parsed out in order for your reference to be relevant to the discussion.

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Original post)

Thu Aug 6, 2015, 05:51 AM

11. Semi-automatics aren't forbidden. They are handed out like candy.

 

You must be thinking of fully-automatic weapons.

Those actually have significant safety restrictions on them, and they would better illustrate any point that needs to be made about the consequences of such safety restrictions.




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Response to stone space (Reply #11)

Thu Aug 6, 2015, 06:27 AM

12. try reading the paper

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Reply #12)

Thu Aug 6, 2015, 10:21 AM

14. PFFT! Reading is for ammosexuals!

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Reply #14)

Thu Aug 6, 2015, 10:32 AM

15. *

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Response to Nuclear Unicorn (Reply #14)

Thu Aug 6, 2015, 10:51 AM

16. On the contrary...

...Lt. Commander Geordi La Forge tells me that reading is fundamental.

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Reply #16)

Fri Aug 7, 2015, 06:41 AM

20. for the younger DU'ers



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Response to stone space (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 7, 2015, 01:45 AM

19. Candy?

Semi-automatics aren't forbidden. They are handed out like candy.

Where does this happen? Are the lines typically very long?

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