Guns, what works and what's just stupid

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

I live in New Jersey. New Jersey is one of the most restrictive states for guns. So how's that going? In some places it's wonderful. In others, not so much. Look at Camden. The 2012 murder rate is 86.3 per 100,000. Asking why is where the whole violence problem should begin. A city with a murder rate over 18 times the national average has to be doing something wrong and it has to be so egregiously obvious that a bit of investigation would make it obvious. Another question is why does the closest major city to Camden have a murder rate 1/4 of Camden's? The 2012 murder rate for Philadelphia is 21.5 per 100,000. Philly borders Camden. What ever the reason it isn't gun laws. PA is much more gun friendly and is a shall issue state for CCW.


Let's look at another city. Newark has a murder rate of 34.4 for 2012. That's less than half of Camden's rate but it's still close to 7 times the rate of New York City.

Both of these New Jersey towns have missed something that both Philly and the Big Apple have done.

Look for an explanation and there's a start.

[EdwardBernays]

1. the explanation is simple

Guns are being trafficked into camden at an astonishing rate, and the crime rate is high... having a high crime rate area next to a low crime rate area is extremely common.

NJ's gun laws aren't working because they're easy to skirt... make them national see what happens...

I grew up in a dry county, on it's border, in the next county over, were liquors stores. A law that's extremely easy to subvert is hardly a law at all.

Saying that, they're far too loose in NJ to make much a real difference any way. They're only "tight" or "restrictive" in America... in the rest of the industrialised world they'd be laughably liberal.

Lot's of info here:

https://books.google.ie/books?id=ak22z1K5YfQC&pg=PA5&lpg=PA5&dq=camden+nj+guns&source=bl&ots=TlCi_Y6xUc&sig=GYLEXVioRNPihahukds2OTMd24I&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CEUQ6AEwBWoVChMI75ng3KfbyAIVg74UCh0Ylw2p#v=onepage&q=camden%20nj%20guns&f=false

[gejohnston]

2. current federal gun laws are being violated

assuming that is accurate, and the ATF warns that may not mean trafficking, the question still exists. Why isn't the Gun Control Act stopping that since unlicensed interstate transfers are illegal and have been for half a century.
Why Camden and not the places where the guns are coming from?

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

3. You should maybe speak with your Congress critter about that

Why are federal prosecutors not doing their jobs?

"NJ's gun laws aren't working because they're easy to skirt..."

Does that mean that PA's gun laws are working?
You can WALK from Camden to Philly in maybe 30 minutes.
Philly used to have a much worse violent crime problem. What happened? Here's a clue: it wasn't gun laws.

"Guns are being trafficked into camden at an astonishing rate..."

From where? Philly? Is Philly some lower crime haven because it neighbors Camden, an epic violence haven? If the guns are coming Philly, why doesn't Philly have the problem? If the guns are coming from somewhere else then where? The other bordering states are New York and Delaware which have non-trivial gun laws of their own. Maryland is a short hop across Delaware but it also has gun restrictions. Your train of logic is on the wrong track.



Of the guns traced from Camden in the report you linked, the median 'time-to-crime' was 6.1 years; that's the same as the national median.


NJ's gun laws aren't working.
Do they need to change a bit? Yes.
Should they be scrapped all together? No.
Did New Jersey benefit even a tiny bit from persecuting Shaneen Allen? Hell no! That was a national embarrassment.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/04/gov_christie_grants_pardon_to_pistol-packing_pa_mo.html



Stupid gun law band-aids aren't the miracle blessing that's needed.



Here's an off topic question: Is it valid to blame the tool or means for the actions of the user?

Why not blame cheesecake for obesity?

Blame alcohol for DUIs? Now there's a good target for a ban.

I'm not saying shall issue would help. I am saying de facto no issue isn't helping.

[EdwardBernays]

17. sorry

Hard to keep track of everything people want me to respond to...

The largest part of gun crime is -- crime. So places with higher crime rates have significantly more gun crime... in America. Not in other industrialised countries that don't have guns really, but in America.

So when the laws are meaningless, as are LOCAL gun laws, and crime is high, as it is in Camden, there's a lot of gun crime.

Where crime is low, gun crime is lower - higher than anywhere in Europe (a point you'll ignore), but lower.

If you have ANY HOPE of lower the US murder rate and the US gun crime rate, both of which are absurdly high, you have to look at a national response to guns, which you've cleverly pointed out.

Local gun laws don't work - only national laws could work, and then only if they're strong enough to actually make an impact.

You do also point out that Americans have some pretty strong issues with impulse control... and people with impulse control issues and lots of deadly weaponry is not a wonderful combo.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

18. Thanks

Have a nice night.

[Lizzie Poppet]

4. If the crime rates are far lower in the places those guns come from...

...does that not undermine the "imported guns" argument? If not, why not?

Those imported guns may facilitate the crimes committed, but for whatever reason, there are more people who elect to commit those crimes in Camden (for example). The OP's question seems to me to be asking why this is the case. There is a large criminal demand for guns in these areas, and the guns didn't cause that demand. I would assert that if that demand isn't lessened, no (feasible and do-able) gun control measure is likely to make a dent.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

8. Maybe it's just...

...Harry Potter's wand at work.

[Eleanors38]

6. "Make (laws) national and see what happens." Like the 18th Amendment?

I can't imagine where people nowadays get their nationally-banned weed.



But wait...

[krispos42]

12. Why does Camden have such a demand for the tools of crime?

Lots of places have lots of guns per capita. Why does Camden have people that desire guns expressly for the purposes of robbery and murder?

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

13. +1 ^^^

Another way of asking what I asked to begin with.

[beevul]

14. Now krispos...

You're focusing on those that misuse guns and where and why.

You know that's not acceptable.

[krispos42]

15. Oh, right...

I meant "the peaceful people of Camden are possessed by the evil NRA spirits in the gunz!"


Or something...

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

16. I was just wondering if you were planning to answer

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1172178991#post3

Have a nice day.

[jimmy the one]

5. time flies, in camden too

dscnt: Look at Camden. The 2012 murder rate is 86.3 per 100,000.. A city with a murder rate over 18 times the national average has to be doing something wrong..

One wonders why you go out on a limb & say that using 2012 year stats. Carpe the diem cum 'tempus fugit'. You also chose a year 2012 where Camden had about a 50% spike in murders, the usual murder total appears about 45%.
2002: 33 (40.5), 2003: 41 (51.2), 49 (60.8), 33 (41.2), 32 (40.0), 42 (53.2), 54 (70.9), 34 (43.0), 37 (46.8), 47 (60.6), 67 (86.3), .. 2014: 33 http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Camden-New-Jersey.html

the murder rate has dropped dramatically, by The South Jersey Times' calculations — from a record 67 homicides in 2012 to 58 in 2013 to a relatively paltry 33 at the end of 2014. http://www.shotspotter.com/news/article/is-camden-really-americas-most-dangerous-city-read-more-at-http-www.phillym

.. New York Times report.. suggesting the city is safer: Shootings were down 43%, violent crime down 22%, and the response time by police to emergency calls down to 4.4 minutes — from more than an hour previously.. the city went 40 days without a homicide.

still ranked #1 in violent crime, but: .. its rankings based on 2013 data, the most recent year for which comprehensive nationwide crime statistics are available. But the last two years have seen an overhaul in the way Camden is policed — and a corresponding drop in violent crime.

dscntn: Newark has a murder rate of 34.4 for 2012. That's less than half of Camden's rate but it's still close to 7 times the rate of New York City.

You are taking a relatively small percentage of new jersey's total population of ~9 million. Newark has a quarter million, Camden under 80,000.
New Jersey STATE murder rate in 2013 (steady past dozen years or so) was 4.5 about at the national avg., 21 states were higher, and 18 of those 21 were PRO GUN states: http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/murder-rates-nationally-and-state#MRord

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

7. Stunning progress for Camden

The murder rate has taken a nosedive down to only 10 times the national average and a bit over double that of Philadelphia.

I live a town that neighbors Camden. My town is safe.

I infer Camden is doing something right. I can't point to new gun laws being the answer.

[jimmy the one]

10. Am I good or what?

Wow. In a mere 3 hours I've made dscntnt contradict his own OP thread:

dscnt, 10 am sat morning: A city with a murder rate over 18 times the national average has to be doing something wrong
dscnt: 3 pm sat aftn: Stunning progress for Camden.. I infer Camden is doing something right.

Am I good or what?
Then of the top 10 cities (>100k pop) with highest murder rates, 7 of 10 are pro gun cities:

pro gun Detroit: With 45.1 murders per 100,000 residents, Detroit churns out fresh corpses almost as quickly as they build new cars.
pro gun New Orleans: The murder rate is impressively freaky at 41.3 per 100,000 residents.

gun control New Jersey is a relatively safe state with violent crime rates that are 21 percent below the national average. {Newark} 112 murders each year, which is 40.2 per 100,000 residents

pro gun St Louis: 37.6 murders occur per 100,000 residents
gun control Baltimore: 37.4 per 100,000 residents
pro gun Birmingham Al 29.7 muderders per 100,000 people

pro gun Jackson MS ... pro gun Cincinnati OH
gun control Oakland CA 22 per 100,000 residents
pro gun Baton Rouge LA
http://www.areavibes.com/library/top-10-cities-highest-murder-rate/

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

11. you're fantastic

You moved from NJ on to Michigan and Missouri and Louisiana. Good work........changing the focus, the focus being gun laws in NJ.


BTW, whatever Camden might be doing right can you point to some new gun laws that are making the big difference?

I'm going to leave now and drive my family a bit closer to Camden to meet some friends for great Italian food.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

9. A separate issue

"You are taking a relatively small percentage of new jersey's total population of ~9 million. Newark has a quarter million, Camden under 80,000."

I'm talking about violence being more of a big city issue.
Big cities in NJ, a gun restrictive state, have a huge violence problem.
Big cities in PA, Pittsburgh and Philly, have a much smaller problem.