The VPC contradicted itself, and the anti-gunners fell for it

[friendly_iconoclast]

From the other group:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/126210633

Self-Defense Gun Use is Rare, New VPC Study Confirms

Washington, DC — New research from the Violence Policy Center (VPC) confirms that contrary to what the firearms industry and gun lobby claim, private citizens rarely use guns to kill criminals or stop crimes.

The new study, Firearm Justifiable Homicides and Non-Fatal Self-Defense Gun Use, analyzes the most recent federal data available, which shows that private citizens use guns to harm themselves or others far more often than to kill in self-defense.

Got that headline and first sentence? A strong clear claim, is it not? Not surprisingly,
given the general mendacity of Josh Sugarman and the VPC, it's not true

Who says so? The VPC itself, in the body of the touted 'study':

http://www.vpc.org/studies/justifiable16.pdf

Page 5:

ESTIMATES ON SELF-DEFENSE USE OF FIREARMS FROM THE BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY

Hemenway notes, and numerous others agree, that the most accurate survey of self-defense
gun use is the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) conducted
by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

And what numbers did the NCVS give for self defensive use of firearms?
From the next page:

SELF-PROTECTIVE BEHAVIORS, BY TYPE OF CRIME, 2012-2014

"Threatened or attacked with a firearm"

Note: This is *not* the only type of defensive gun use. Sometimes, mere display suffices
and many DGUs are not reported to police - mine wasn't, for instance

Cut to the chase- how many of these 'rare' occasions happened during the period under study?

262,500

From the same page:

SELF-PROTECTIVE BEHAVIORS, BY TYPE OF CRIME, 2012-2014
Violent Crime 2012-2014
Property Crime 2012-2014

Self-Protective Behavior
Threatened or attacked with a firearm
163,600 99,900

Given the total number of DGUs, and even accounting for the restricted definition,

262,500/731 (days) = 359 defensive gun uses per day 2012-2014

How many people were murdered via firearm in 2013? The FBI says 8454:

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_8_murder_victims_by_weapon_2009-2013.xls

8454/365(days) = ca. 21 firearms murders per day

Therefore in 2013 there were 18x as many defensive gun uses (using the VPC's own
restricted definiton than there were murders via gun

[MisterP]

1. your death cult's days are numbered

[Straw Man]

2. Hyperbole is not your friend.

[friendly_iconoclast]

5. True Believers tend to get a bit overwrought when confronting their Big Bad

[friendly_iconoclast]

6. Aaand what 'death cult' would that be, exactly?

[Eleanors38]

19. You will be assimilated.

[beevul]

3. Oops.

[theatre goon]

7. I have to assume...

...that they just didn't expect most of their supporters to actually read the whole study.

Look how often stories get posted here from a Google dump that doesn't actually support the poster's agenda -- the headline says what they want to hear, so they don't bother reading any further.

[Eleanors38]

22. Common practice for War On Drugs studies. "LatestStudy©" shows pot leads to...

...cunnilingus or whatever, interview of the anti-drug foundation, nothing from the other side. Unbelieveable how MSM was (and to a significant degree still is) locked into a prohi- stance.

[CompanyFirstSergeant]

8. I was hoping someone would bring this over here...

I first saw it in Bansalot, and of course, I could not reply.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are being taken to task for not killing enough people.

Very, very few, in fact, compared to our frequent non-violent use of firearms.

Yes, you heard me right, especially you anti's - non violent use of a deadly weapon.

Like when a group of baddies surrounds you in an all-night parking garage and you put your hand on the grips and they run away...

(Happened to me 3 years ago)

Kind of messes up your paradigm, doesn't it.

[jimmy the one]

9. leaky & sloppy

vpc study: Study: SELF-PROTECTIVE BEHAVIORS, BY TYPE OF CRIME, 2012-2014
"Threatened or attacked with a firearm"

dscnt: Note: This is *not* the only type of defensive gun use. Sometimes, mere display suffices
and many DGUs are not reported to police - mine wasn't, for instance

You do understand that if a gun owner is being victimized in a crime, displaying or brandishing his own firearm is considered a counter threat, do you not? that is what is meant, in simplest terms for the table; and if firearm is displayed for merely a menacing look or frivolously, it could be considered a 'threatening' overreach.
If someone 'performs' a verbal dgu, such as 'go away or I'll get my gun', that is also considered a threat. Same as threatening to punch someone is a threat.

And if a gun owner does not report his dgu, that's his fault. Some are not reported due to the crime not being reported, which fits in with the NCVS, but also in the gunnut narrative that by reporting a dgu identifies the person as a gun owner for the horrors of gun registration purposes; and ramifications of performing a dgu but not reporting the crime - unreasonable fear they could be charged with threatening with a firearm for 'no reason'.

dscntnt: Cut to the chase- how many of these 'rare' occasions happened during the period under study? 262,500 Therefore in 2013 there were 18x as many defensive gun uses (using the VPC's own restricted definiton than there were murders via gun

You obviously overlook the premise of the VPC study, & redefine & confine it to a DGU vs murder comparison. Reread the premise of the study below:
This report analyzes, on both the national and state levels, the use of firearms in justifiable homicides. It also details, using the best data available on the national level, the total number of times guns are used for self-defense by the victims of both attempted and completed violent crimes and property crimes whether or not the use of the gun by the victim resulted in a fatality...

The flaw in dscntnt's reasoning is that validly one must compare the total number of reported & unreported crimes (18 million + 52 million = 70 million over 3 years), to the quarter million defensive gun uses over that time period.
Then you get the real deal, that dgus are only used to allegedly thwart one in 280 crimes. One of ~72 violent crimes.

(note that I get 0.35% rather than vpc's 0.2%, perhaps they are confining to one or other statistic): looking at the total number of self-protective behaviors undertaken by victims of attempted or completed property crime for the three-year period 2012 through 2014, in only 0.2 percent of these instances had the intended victim in resistance to a criminal threatened or attacked with a firearm.
During this same three-year period, only 99,900 of the self-protective behaviors involved a firearm. Of this number, it is not known what type of firearm was used, whether it was fired or not, or whether the use of a gun would even be a legal response to the property crime. And as before, the number may also include off-duty law enforcement officers. In comparison, data from the Dept of Justice shows that an average of 232,400 guns were stolen each year from U.S. households from 2005 to 2010.

As typical for you dscntnt, your reporting is pretty leaky & sloppy, with biased & invalid conclusions on your part.

[Giggity]

10. What is your gripe?

"total number of times guns are used for self-defense by the victims of both attempted and completed violent crimes and property crimes"

"Self-defense" while utilizing a "gun" is typically referred to as a "Defensive Gun Use".

[jimmy the one]

13. say no to uppers

What is your gripe? "total number of times guns are used for self-defense by the victims of both attempted and completed violent crimes and property crimes"
"Self-defense" while utilizing a "gun" is typically referred to as a "Defensive Gun Use".

Might wanna try another cup of coffee, or CO-Q-10, or st johns wort, or other stimulant to stimulate increased perception & awareness. Say no to uppers tho.

[Giggity]

15. I was thinking more along the lines of...

superfluously and pointlessly using italics, bolds and underlinings inside of a wall of text to try and argue that a defensive use of a gun isn't a defensive gun use.

Then if challenged, recommend St. John's Wart, to really illustrate and maintain the level of discussion I can manage.

[sarisataka]

11. The point is

Per the VPC the "rare" event of a DGU happens far more often than homicide by gun. Their numbers give over 200,000 DGUs per year. Only about 1 in 1000 DGUs result in death.

Those totals male lie the accusation that gun owners are simply looking for a chance to kill.

It also raises issue with VPC credibility when they talk about a "rare" event then highlight only a subset that represents .1% of the total.

[jimmy the one]

12. life saving dgu's is the crux

The point is Per the VPC the "rare" event of a DGU happens far more often than homicide by gun. Their numbers give over 200,000 DGUs per year. Only about 1 in 1000 DGUs result in death.
..also raises issue with VPC credibility when they talk about a "rare" event then highlight only a subset that represents .1% of the total

A valid comparison using those criteria would be the number of DGU's which actually prevented the death of someone in a crime or threat, impossible to ascertain within reason. Your DGU's might save a life a few hundred times per year, is all, imo. Ergo, 8500 firearm homicides far more than lives saved from dgus.

[Giggity]

14. I find

"total number of times guns are used for self-defense by the victims of both attempted and completed violent crimes and property crime" to be entirely reasonable.

So does most reasonable people.
Thus the given criteria in this study.

[sarisataka]

16. Or one could say that 10%

Of those DGUs saved a life and therefore saved 20,000 people or more than double homicides.

It is hard to measure a non-event true. Using the FBI data from 2014, 1.2% of violent crimes resulted in Murder. Applying that statistic to DGUs will approximate out to 2500 lives saved. It does not fully offset the 8500 however it is not an insignificant number.

Also an important consideration is how many violent assaults and sexual assaults were prevented with those DGUs. It is likely they far exceed the number of homicides.

[jimmy the one]

17. 1.2% milk

sari: Using the FBI data from 2014, 1.2% of violent crimes resulted in Murder. Applying that statistic to DGUs will approximate out to 2500 lives saved. It does not fully offset the 8500 however it is not an insignificant number.

Why do you think you can validly apply 1.2% to the fbi figures for total defensive gun uses? as if dgus life savers were tit for tat with murder per violent crime? non sequitur.

Also an important consideration is how many violent assaults and sexual assaults were prevented with those DGUs. It is likely they far exceed the number of homicides.

Certainly, but that's accounted for in the one of 280 I posted.

[sarisataka]

18. Using that FBI

Stat makes more sense than pulling a number out of the air like 200 or twenty thousand.

[Eleanors38]

20. So you are saying we are all getting old?

[jmg257]

21. What is striking is the sheer number of violent crimes....6 million a year!!

"for the five-year period 2007 through 2011, the NCVS estimates that there were 29,618,300 victims of attempted or completed violent crime. During this same five-year period, only 235,700 of the self-protective behaviors involved a firearm."

"for the three-year period 2012 through 2014, the NCVS estimates that there were 18,328,600 victims of attempted or
completed violent crime. During this same three-year period, only 163,600 of the self-protective behaviors involved a firearm."

"According to the National Crime Victimization Survey, 467,321 persons were victims of a crime committed with a firearm in 2011."
"An estimated 466,110 nonfatal firearm victimizations occurred in 2014"

5.8 Mil - 6.1 Mil violent crimes annually.
with 465K firearm victimizations.

And 45,000-55,000 SDGU against violent crime annually.


"what is most striking is that in a nation of more than 300 million guns, how rarely firearms are used in self-defense."

Sounds like we need to carry more.