What will happen when or if Illinois (and especially Chicago) are forced to allow shall issue CCW?

[TPaine7]

Now is the time to go on the record:

21 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Time expired
	Murders will increase significantly
	1 (5%)
	Murders will decrease significantly
	1 (5%)
	Murders will stay essentially the same
	12 (57%)
	Murders will stay essentially the same or decrease significantly
	7 (33%)
	Murders will stay essentially the same or increase significantly
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[petronius]

1. They weren't ordered to craft 'shall-issue' legislation thought, right? My bet is that

they will come up with some hyper-restrictive form of may-issue, modeled perhaps on Hawaii, but they will fuck it up, get sued again, lose again, write a big check or three, and repeat the process...

Aside from that, there will be no significant change in any crime rate throughout the duration of this process.

[TPaine7]

4. I read the opinion, and to this layman it sounded like the court seriously disagreed with

NYC's "may issue":

The New York gun law upheld in Kachalsky, although
one of the nation’s most restrictive such laws (under
the law’s “proper cause” standard, an applicant for a
gun permit must demonstrate a need for self-defense
greater than that of the general public, such as being
the target of personal threats, id. at *3, *8), is less restrictive
than Illinois’s law. Our principal reservation about
the Second Circuit ’s analy s i s (apart from
disagreement, unnecessary to bore the reader with,
with some of the historical analysis in the opinion—
we regard the historical issues as settled by Heller)
is its suggestion that the Second Amendment should
have much greater scope inside the home than
outside simply because other provisions of the Constitution
have been held to make that distinction. For example,
the opinion states that “in Lawrence v. Texas, the
[Supreme] Court emphasized that the state’s efforts to
regulate private sexual conduct between consenting adults
is especially suspect when it intrudes into the home.”
2012 WL 5907502, at *9. Well of course—the interest in
having sex inside one’s home is much greater than
the interest in having sex on the sidewalk in front of
one’s home. But the interest in self-protection is as great
outside as inside the home.

If the right exists outside the home just as certainly as it does inside the home, it's hard to see how "may issue" can survive. Guns inside the home are not "may issue."

[petronius]

8. Very interesting - guess I'd better read before formulating too much

of an opinion.

A rejection of 'may issue' would be a welcome sea-change...

[AnotherMcIntosh]

16. The full text of the opinion with the Court's reasoning can be found here:

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/537394/u-s-appellate-court-gun-law-decision.pdf

[petronius]

17. Thanks! I'll take a look...

[AnotherMcIntosh]

18. The opinion was written by Posner and the Court's reasoning includes this:

"a Chicagoan is a good deal more likely to be attacked on a sidewalk in a rough neighborhood than in his apartment on the 35th floor of the Park Tower. A woman who is being stalked or has obtained a protective order against a violent ex-husband is more vulnerable to being attacked while walking to or from her home than when inside. She has a stronger self-defense claim to be allowed to carry a gun in public than the resident of a fancy apartment building (complete with doorman) has a claim to sleep with a loaded gun under her mattress. But Illinois wants to deny the former claim, while compelled by McDonald to honor the latter. That creates an arbitrary difference. To confine the right to be armed to the home is to divorce the Second Amendment from the right of self-defense described in Heller and McDonald."

Posner is opposed to arbitrariness.

[Loudly]

2. We've essentially got an unregulated gun acquisition and free fire zone.

This unfortunate ruling is just a way of institutionalizing it, with the blessing of pro gun interest groups.

Let them receive the fruits of their labors.

In other words, I'm toasting a cap in your ass.

[TPaine7]

3. Wow, "toasting a cap in your ass." You must have serious street cred. nt

[TPaine7]

6. And a good day to you too, sir!

[Loudly]

7. You're wishing for it. Not me! n/t

[TPaine7]

9. Just so I understand...

I want nationwide shall issue concealed carry.

Even you voted that CCW in Illinois will not affect murders. If that is true, if CCW does not increase murders, how would nationwide CCW increase my chance of being shot?

In other words, how am I wishing for my own death (or a higher probability of it)?

[Straw Man]

20. This kind of thing is what got Loudly banned ...

Last edited Fri Dec 14, 2012, 03:23 AM - Edit history (1)

... when he/she was called Shares United: this creepy "hope you die" shit. How long do we have to wait for this incarnation to get locked out too?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

27. That's our SHARES

[Atypical Liberal]

15. I love the smell of schadenfreude in the morning. n/t

[slackmaster]

19. Please at least make an effort to get your phony street slang right

It's BUSTING a cap in your ass.

You WASTE people, and in the process make them TOAST.

[NewMoonTherian]

23. I think he was making an awkward play on "toasting your health". n/t

[Straw Man]

21. You're a zombie ghoul.

Let them receive the fruits of their labors.

In other words, I'm toasting a cap in your ass.

You are Shares United. You got banned for this creepy death-wishing shit before. Go away, zombie.

[trouble.smith]

10. people that will be eligible for concealed handgun licenses aren't the ones

committing the vast majority of the violent homicides in Chicago. Crimes against law abiding citizens will decrease however.

[spin]

11. Most of the shootings in Chicago are a result of gangs fighting over turf. ...

Also there are some reliable reports that much of the gang warfare is due to Mexican drug cartels.

Over time allowing citizens to carry firearms might result in a drop in muggings on the street, however I doubt that Illinois will set up a "shall issue" system or if they do the requirements to carry will so so draconian and expensive that only the rich and influential will be able to obtain one.

Realistically it's hard to imagine how a person with a carry permit would be able to stop a drive by shooting. In the first place he would probably be just an innocent bystander and shooting at a moving vehicle is foolish.

However some honest citizens might be able to stop an attack that could result in serious injury or death. While this might not be statistically significant, the survivor might greatly appreciate the fact that the state allowed him to be armed. In many cases it will not be necessary for the victim to even fire a round. A street predator is likely to run when he realizes his prey has sharp teeth.

[TPaine7]

12. I think the New York "broken windows" approach actually affected crime, and this might just be

similar.

There is a psychological effect that accompanies a place like Chicago--no guns for decent, unconnected people--changing to a place where the "squares" just might shoot back, and I think that the result might be much larger than what straightforward logic would dictate.

Crime certainly dropped in DC (though yes, that *might* have been a coincidence).

[spin]

13. You might be right. Perhaps time will tell. (n/t)

[AlexSatan]

22. +1

[Trunk Monkey]

14. I don't know for sure what will happen but I will bet

that illinois won't have shall issue for several years and quite possibly a trip to SCOTUS to come.

[Glassunion]

24. This will happen

[TPaine7]

25. OH NOES!!!111!!!!!!!!!!!!11!

That's not good!

[PavePusher]

28. ROFL!!!!

Does the shark growl?

According to the really bad movies on SyFy channel on the weekends, sharks growl when they attack....

[Glassunion]

29. Hell yeah it does!

[Eleanors38]

26. I voted homocides will go down, partly out of hope...

a clean-cut shall-issue law will be accompanied by a well-publicized and loud campaign, esp. when it goes into effect. It strikes me if there IS a causal relationship between an armed pop. and a drop in homicides, it will be a good point to start measurement.