Guns in America: A Statistical Look

[trouble.smith]

2012 has been a record setting year for gun sales. As of November, the FBI recorded 16,808,538 instant background checks for gun purchases for 2012. Even without counting December, which has historically been the busiest month, this beats last year's record by more than 350,000. If history is a guide, we can anticipate nearly 2 million additional gun checks to be added to the 2012 total when the December numbers come in, obliterating any previous total.

There are more than 129,817 federally licensed firearms dealers in the United States, according to the latest Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives numbers (as of Aug. 1).

According to ATF reports, in 2010 there were 5,459,240 new firearms manufactured in the United States, nearly all (95 percent) for the U.S. market. An additional 3,252,404 firearms were imported to the United States. That's nearly 8.5 million new firearms on the street in one year.

In 2011 the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) ran 16,454,951 background checks for firearms purchases. Only a small number of these purchases (78,211 or 0.48 percent) were denied.

Since 1998 there have been more than 157,690,937 NICS checks. Each check doesn't necessarily represent a single gun, just a single transaction. Multiple guns can be purchased in a single transaction, with only one check performed and recorded.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/guns-america-statistical/story?id=17939758#.UMiqUXck61c

[trouble.smith]

1. do you see how hopeless your position is antis?

You talk about gun control all you want. That's all you're gonna do.

[SecularMotion]

2. This is a huge lie

Background checks do not equal gun sales.

Background checks may fail and not result in a gun sale. Background checks are also run on permit and license applications along with renewals.

[trouble.smith]

3. "Only a small number of these purchases (78,211 or 0.48 percent) were denied."

every year we see a new record for gun sales and you antis have nobody but yourselves to blame for this. This is your doing. This is the fruit of your labor.

[SecularMotion]

4. This is the fruit of NRA propaganda

and what percent of background checks are applications and renewals for permits?

[trouble.smith]

7. I think you need to read the article again.

[SecularMotion]

8. I think you need to read the FBI statement

These statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm backgroundcheck and a firearm sale.

[trouble.smith]

10. approx .26% to answer your question.

Last edited Wed Dec 12, 2012, 02:59 PM - Edit history (1)

new gun sale records every year. Your fault.

[gejohnston]

11. that is because of

multiple sales or CCW holders being exempt from NICS if the state's record keeping is to ATF standards. Could also include the few states that require a permit for ownership, assuming their record keeping are to ATF standards.

[Trunk Monkey]

31. You should also understand that many states (Colorado for one)

Do not use NICS which means that far more background checks that that number indicates are being done.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

56. Colorado...

...participates in NICS as a full POC state.

<< http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/general-information/participation-map >>

A full POC state has a law enforcement division designated as the "point of contact" for FFLs to run an NICS check. Many states have elected to participate in this manner for different reasons. My research has led me to believe that one of the more common reasons is, due to that state's privacy laws, the state may be unable to report certain mental health situations to the FBI data base. Many POC states initiate a check of their own state records when the FFL initiates a check for a purchase candidate.

I'm a PA native and many PA laws are founded on Quaker principles. (William Penn was a Quaker.) The Quakers had/have a very high degree of respect for the individual and his privacy. I hope in the future more states will adopt the POC method as it allows a more complete check of the individual while being as respectful of his privacy as possible according to state law.

Colorado has made 361,385 NICS check so far for 2012. Up about 10% (so far) from last year. So Colorado FFLs don't contact the FBI but rather they contact a state agency and that agency accesses state, local and federal databases (including the NICS).

<< http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20121203_1998_2012_state_monthly_totals.pdf >>

[Trunk Monkey]

57. My understanding was that Colorado Back Ground checks go through CBI NT

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

60. I'm not able to find that information

I'm relatively sure that CBI is the contact agency for firearms background checks. The POC states have all set up a division of a law enforcement agency for those persons and businesses to contact for regulated firearm transfers. Private transfers outside of gun shows are AFAIK unregulated.

NICS type background checks will, in addition to any state records checks, access federally maintained databases. They are the three maintained by the FBI, (Interstate Identification Index, National Crime Information Center and NICS Index) and certain relevant databases maintained by the ICE arm of DHS.

[oneshooter]

49. Don't forget that in Texas and several other states no NCIS check is needed

If you have a CHL.

[AnotherMcIntosh]

5. I'm not sure how sincere the anti-gunners are. I suspect that one or more of them are stockholders

in companies that manufacture firearms and ammunition.

Since the anti-gunners with their losing arguments have gotten involved, the price of ammo has doubled. And then doubled again.

No matter how much experience that they have with their foolish arguments and their knowledge that their arguments are foolish, they are not going to go away.

The fruit of their labor is that the price of ammo is going to continue to rise, as is the price of firearms.

[trouble.smith]

9. the price of ammo is up because the price of all commodities is up, copper and lead for example.

The two wars didn't help either. There was a market for assault weapons prior to the 1992 AWB but it was nothing like the market that came after. The huge demand for assault weapons has created an economy of scale for firearms manufacturers. when you account for inflation, guns really aren't more expensive than they were in 1980 and they're a much higher quality. same with high cap semi-auto handguns. Prior to the ban, most folks were happy with 6 shot revolvers and 7 shot 1911s. Good intentions and all that.

[AnotherMcIntosh]

12. The price of ammo was going up long before the price of commodities began going up.

The upward price of copper, for example, is a factor. But it does not by itself account for the jump in prices.

As an example, if you press your own cartridges, you need caps which contain only a small amount of copper. Just a few years ago, the price of caps went through the roof. Manufacturers were charging more because they could and not because the price of copper went up.

[ManiacJoe]

42. Part of it is also supply and demand for the ammo.

The military has been fighting two wars for the last ten years. There are currently no "surplus ammo" left in the world market for many years now.

[bobclark86]

51. Really? Then explain why...

the prices spiked during the 2008 election, and didn't drop during the Great Recession which immediately followed? The cost of the materials dropped (as nobody outside the gun industry needed them), but the prices stayed up.

Guess what? It was price gouging by dealers/distributors/manufacturers who could get away with it because too many gun owners had a collective panic attack over a Democrat from Chicago going against a senile old man and a mentally handicapped twit from the middle of nowhere.

You threaten to take something away, and the demand (and price) go up. Look at Twinkies being sold on eBay. A current Ruger 10/22 (that's my squirrel rifle firing a tiny round I shot in Cub Scouts) is $249 at Walmart, but my gun (from 1973) I could sell for 1.5x to 2x that price here in upstate New York. Why? Because it can be modified to be an "assault weapon" without breaking the law.

Thankfully, the twits chilled out this election and prices didn't go up that bad.

[gejohnston]

53. I remember that

some asshole wanted to charge me $60 for a box of .380s.

[trouble.smith]

54. I'm not saying that panic buyers and horders didn't contribute

I'm just saying that there was more to it than that. You had panic buyers driving up demand at the same time we had two wars driving down the supply and rising commodity prices driving up material costs.

[SecularMotion]

6. From the FBI document linked in the article

These statistics represent the number of firearm background checks initiated through the NICS. They do not represent the number of firearms sold. Based on varying state laws and purchase scenarios, a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm backgroundcheck and a firearm sale.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20121203_1998_2012_monthly_yearly_totals.pdf

[Hangingon]

13. Correct - a NICS approval can be used to buy more than one gun

[SecularMotion]

15. Wrong - not all background checks are sales

[rDigital]

16. Over 99% ARE from sales. : ) nt

[SecularMotion]

17. Prove it

[trouble.smith]

19. divide 129,817 (the number of FFLs in America) by 16,454,951 (number of NICS checks) in 2011

multiply by 100.

answer: .78%

You can actually divide that by 3 because the FFL is renewed every three years, not every year. Therefore, a more accurate number might be closer to .26% of the total.

[SecularMotion]

20. That's not accurate

Not all FFLs are sellers

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Firearms_License

and not all background checks originate from FFLs

The bottom line as stated by the FBI is "a one-to-one correlation cannot be made between a firearm background check and a firearm sale"

[Atypical Liberal]

21. Gawd, how long are you going to bang this drum?

Yes, we get it. Pure NICS numbers does not equal sales.

Are you still in denial that gun sales are skyrocketing and have been for years?

Hell I got a job lead for S&W last month. The Ruger 1911 is known as a "unicorn" because they are so hard to find. Ruger had 50% increase in sales in the first half of 2012.

http://www.ruger.com/corporate/PDF/8K-2012-08-02.pdf

"To reiterate, more than one-third of our year-to-date sales were products that did not exist two years ago. This is a great achievement for our engineers, and another testament to the importance of new product development.

Sell-through -- the demand for Ruger products in the first half of 2012 was very strong, as evidenced by the 59% growth in estimated sell-through of Ruger products from the independent wholesale distributors to retailers. We believe that some of this demand was attributable to political and economic factors that favorably impacted the entire firearms industry, as evidenced by the 21% increase in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System background checks, which we call NICS. We believe that our growth substantially outpaced the growth and NICS checks because of the popularity of our new products.

Inventory and production -- in response to this strong demand and the new products that were added in the first half of 2012, we increased our unit production by 52% from the first half of 2011. This increase in production would not have been possible without our investment of $27 million in capital expenditures in the past four quarters. These capital expenditures exceeded depreciation by approximately $13 million during this period, which represented a 7% increase to our capital equipment base. Our commitment to continuous improvement through the implementation of lean business practices enabled us to leverage this investment to achieve the 52% increase in unit production.

Despite the significant increase in production, our finished goods inventory decreased slightly during the first half of 2012. Our independent wholesale distributors' inventories were reduced by 50%, or 68,000 units, during the same period, as retailer demand pulled Ruger product through the channel. We believe that both Ruger and our independent distributors would benefit by having more finished goods in inventory to allow for rapid fulfillment of demand."

Yeah, you can sit back and clamor about how all those NICS checks aren't really sales, but it's pretty undeniable that firearm sales are up, big time.

[SecularMotion]

23. Corporate propaganda is not an accurate source

[Lizzie Poppet]

24. Feel free to present a cogent argument...

...that the number of checks varies to a meaningful degree from the number of gun sales. Yes, the numbers are not identical, but is there legitimate reason to believe that the vast majority of checks are indeed for sales? If so, please provide support for that assertion.

If you can...

[SecularMotion]

25. Not my burden to prove

I'll believe that gun sales are "skyrocketing" when I see actual sales figures from firearm sellers.

I find it very suspect that all reports of "skyrocketing" gun sales are based on ambiguous data and not actual sales figures.

[Lizzie Poppet]

27. Then I see no reason to believe otherwise, frankly.

It's an Occam's Razor situation: the most plausible explanation for the vast majority of checks is a purchase. Checks for FFL renewal will be a fraction of one percent (the number of FFLs is a known quantity). The number of checks for permit renewals can't possible amount to an only slightly larger percentage: the rather large majority of US jurisdictions don't require permitting for firearms possession, and those that do tend to have multi-year permit durations. Barring evidence to the contrary, the most plausible explanation for the high number of checks is a high number of sales.

One bit of anecdotal (an d inferential) evidence for high sales figures is that on many, many online firearms sales sites, the majority of items are sold out and waiting for back orders. Obviously not "proof," but another item to add to the rather long list supporting high sales. Countering that list? Well...not bloody much.

[SecularMotion]

32. Where are the actual sales figures?

[Lizzie Poppet]

35. Where is a cogent counter-argument?

My position is intuitive. Yours is (massively) counter-intuitive. I see no reason for this to continue...

[Dr_Scholl]

40. Right here.

That is unless they're just manufacturing and importing all of these guns just so they can sit in warehouses.

[url]http://www.atf.gov/publications/firearms/050412-firearms-commerce-in-the-us-annual-statistical-update-2012.pdf[/url]

[SecularMotion]

41. These are not sales figures on individual sales

Last edited Fri Dec 14, 2012, 11:08 AM - Edit history (1)

The AFMER report excludes production for the U.S. military but includes firearms purchased by domestic law enforcement agencies. The report also includes firearms manufactured for export.

[Atypical Liberal]

29. Like this?

http://www.ruger.com/corporate/PDF/ER-2012-10-31.pdf

Oh wait, that's "corporate propaganda".

[Atypical Liberal]

28. It's an SEC filing.

Look, I don't know what else to tell you. Ruger alone says they had a 50% increase in sales in the first half of 2012 per their SEC filing. On top of this, they are issuing special dividends due to the spectacular profitability of the company.

Everything points to a massive increase in firearm sales.

Nothing indicates the contrary.

[Atypical Liberal]

30. Hey, here's some more "corporate propaganda" from Smith and Wesson

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-smith-wesson-sales


Record-level quarterly sales growth from continuing ops of $136.0M, +48.3% Y/Y
Record-level quarterly income from continuing ops of $18.9M, or $0.28 per diluted share
Record Adjusted Non-GAAP EBITDAS of $36.1 Million
Raised Full Year Fiscal 2013 Financial Guidance
Exceeded high end of upwardly revised sales guidance
Quarterly unit growth +30.1% vs. market growth +23.5% (Adjusted NICS)
Backlog of $392.4M versus $148.8 one year ago

[SecularMotion]

33. And still no sales figures for individual gun sales

[Atypical Liberal]

38. And yet still very good data indicating a massive increase in sales revenue.

The increased sales numbers are not due to a 50% increase in sales prices.

Here's another good article for you.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/frankminiter/2012/08/23/what-the-left-wont-tell-you-about-the-boom-in-u-s-gun-sales/

But I guess this is all just propaganda, too.

[SecularMotion]

39. And yet another article on the "boom" in gun sales with no sales figures

[Atypical Liberal]

46. lulz someone didn't read the article.

[ManiacJoe]

43. What exactly are you looking for?

Something like this?

S&W - 686 revolver - 13432 sold
Beretta - 92fs pistol - 25346 sold
Glock - model 19 pistol - 345323 sold

If so, good luck finding that because in general not enough people in the public care about that level of detail. And even if they did, most companies would not be willing to give that level of breakdown any way.

[SecularMotion]

44. Individual gun sales

Where are sales figures on over the counter gun shop sales to individuals or individual sales at gun shows?

Where are sales figures that show an increase in individual gun sales by city, state, or region?

[Atypical Liberal]

47. Hey, believe what you want, man.

If you aren't convinced by the sales figures, NICS info, and BATFE info already provided, hey, what can we say?

I guess you can keep believing that gun sales aren't increasing.

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

58. re: "...gun sales aren't increasing."

The Secular Knight is in selective denial about that.

Denial bordering on this:

"It's just a flesh wound."

[ManiacJoe]

48. Do you really think that this collection of data exists?

Where are sales figures on over the counter gun shop sales to individuals or individual sales at gun shows?
Where are sales figures that show an increase in individual gun sales by city, state, or region?

Most gun shops are privately owned. Like all other privately owned companies, their sales figures are not available for public consumption.

Publicly traded manufacturers will be able to give you their aggregated sales numbers.

[trouble.smith]

26. We get it, it isn't a one to one correlation but it's still a fuckton of new gun sales.

and the number is growing every year and it's a direct result of anti-second amendment folks trying to take guns away. It's their fault. They never should have gone there but they just couldn't help themselves so they can blame themselves for this situation and, as far as I'm concerned, they can blame themselves for all the mass shootings we have seen lately. And, unfortunately for all of us, it's too late to put the genie back in his bottle.

[SecularMotion]

34. That's exactly what the NRA would like you to believe

[Clames]

45. It's exactly what people with common sense...

...and a basic grasp of grade school mathematics believe. What is truly funny is how often you have used such correlations to support your arguments yet here you calling it all propaganda. Try and remember this thread next time you use such tactics and they are thrown back in your face....

[bobclark86]

52. Go spend a day

in a gun shop. Ask people why they're buying. Ask sellers how they're doing. The mere spectre of an anti-gun president makes many gun owners (not me, because I'm not mental) freak out. This isn't really debatable, as it's what happens.

Then again, about half of conservatives according to the latest PPC poll think ACORN stole the 2012 election even though it hasn't existed for two years... not saying they're smart, but yeah, that's what happens.

1) Gun sales are up (you claim the number of NICS checks is more than guns being sold, but don't forget I can sell a gun to my neighbor without a background check).
2) Many gun owners are freaked out by a non-existent AWB or a UN treaty.
3) 2) causes 1). It's not correlation, but causation.

[SecularMotion]

55. You say many gun owners are "mental"?

Should these people even be allowed to possess guns?

[Hangingon]

36. I have bought two (2) guns on the same NICS check.

While not all NICS checks result in a sale, some result in multiple sales.

[oneshooter]

50. And as mentioned above, not all sales need background checks.

[slackmaster]

14. That's very good news. It means the economy is improving.

Consumer spending is the largest driver of the economy.

[Eleanors38]

18. I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

The gun control outlook MADE the modern NRA.


Don't like the NRA? Lose this "issue."

[rDigital]

22. +1000000 nt

[discntnt_irny_srcsm]

59. Agreed

That's one fire that doesn't need any more gasoline.

[green for victory]

37. stats also show guns & drugs

don't mix well

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