“Economic Anxiety” Doesn’t Fully Explain Support For Trump

[Starry Messenger]

https://thewpsa.wordpress.com/2016/05/16/trump-supporters-have-cooler-feelings-towards-many-groups-compared-to-supporters-of-other-candidates/#more-1041

This is kind of a "water is wet" article, but it had some interesting wrinkles.

<snip>

There are other reasons to believe nativism drives Trump support. An interesting ANES question explores the racial dynamic. It asks respondents, “How likely do you think it is that a Latino president would focus too much on trying to help immigrants?” We find 44 percent of white Trump supporters thought it was “extremely” or “very likely” a Latino President would focus too much on immigrants, compared with 25 percent of whites who didn’t support Trump. Trump supporters are dramatically more likely to believe that Obama is a Muslim. A full 64 percent of Trump supporters say that Obama is a Muslim, compared to 25 percent of non-Trump supporters. Among Republicans who reject Trump, 42 percent believe Obama is a Muslim.

As political scientist Michael Tesler previously showed, Republicans and Independents who are worried that people of color will take white jobs and who believe that whites should work together to change laws unfair to whites are more likely to support Trump.

“Economic Anxiety” Doesn’t Fully Explain Support For Trump"

One of the common reasons given to explain the rise of Trump is the idea that his supporters are derives from economic anxiety. In a recent New York Times piece, Nicholas Confessore writes of the divide in the GOP between elites and the base, arguing,

“Many trace the rupture to the country’s economic crisis eight years ago: While Americans grew more skeptical of the banking industry in the aftermath, some Republicans played down the frustrations of their own voters.”

<snip>

He writes of the “disaffecteds,” who are, “Older white voters with little education beyond high school, under enormous economic stress, the Disaffecteds surged to the Republican Party early in Mr. Obama’s first term.” (We’ve argued these “Disaffecteds” were driven by racial animus). However, there is an ongoing debate as to whether Trump supporters have a higher or lower income than other Republicans. This debate, while interesting, doesn’t get to the core of Trump support – family income isn’t a predictor of Trump support in any of our models. More importantly this narrative is difficult to square with the reality that though Blacks and Hispanics have significantly worse economic outcomes than whites, few have rushed to support Trump. In addition, we find that variables connected to economic anxiety do not predict Trump support after other factors are controlled for (a recent Washington Post analysis finds that racial concerns are stronger predictors of Trump support than economic ones). Rather, we find that what drives support for Trump is the mistaken belief that the government serves the interests of Blacks, rather than whites. Political scientist Brian McKenzie finds that, “whites who feel the Obama administration is looking out for the economic interests of blacks are more likely to express frustration with their own financial position.”


<snip>

[Protalker]

1. What about Obama ' Birth Certificate did you miss?

Trump is about hate. They just put a White Supremist forward last week. THE butler did it as in get a Clue.

[Starry Messenger]

2. I didn't?

I agree with you.

[rusty quoin]

3. It is all about race. It's the reason they can function in society, no matter the education level,

and still back Trump. It doesn't make sense. You cannot argue with these decent white people for Trump. Logic has left the room, and I can't explain it. And I'm white. I only can come up with they are racist explanation.

[Hairy Harry Potlover]

6. I'm white, too

And Trumpites are racist. But so is our society in general. How do you think this orange monstrosity got the GOP nomination?

[montana_hazeleyes]

9. I agree with you.

I have seen it from the start with Trump.

[Person 2713]

4. Yes some hit harder by economic downturn than others & guess what? Plenty POC did

But this hate is excusable in whites who got hit because they are anxious
And looks like plenty are buying the bs too

[JI7]

5. the lack of support for Govt Programs also has to do with "blacks and mexicans are taking from me"

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. I've always argued that "government" is a proxy for "blacks". When people complain about "lazy

government workers", "ineffective government", "government can create jobs", "government is a failure", replace the word "government" for "blacks" and that's where the hatred comes from.

[Starry Messenger]

19. Totally.

Last edited Tue May 17, 2016, 05:15 PM - Edit history (1)

It's heartbreaking and awful.

Exit to add, good tweet stream to this point today: https://twitter.com/smoothkobra/status/732653159907217408

[Starry Messenger]

8. Um, what?

[charin]

10. I can't believe...

" A full 64 percent of Trump supporters say that Obama is a Muslim"

Blind hate.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. Nor does it fully explain allegiance to Sanders.

[Starry Messenger]

13. This is true:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251542288

His highest voter demographic was higher income, as of 8/15.

And then there are the polls that show that some will vote for Trump if Sanders is not the nominee. That speaks to...something. https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/04/28/clinton-seen-likely-nominee-sanders-voters-arent-b/

[Jackie Wilson Said]

16. And the sad thing to me is Bernie deserves better supporters. The real Bernie that I know

and trust doesnt belong in the same room with many of his supporters.

They are supporting him for the wrong reasons

Oh, I better repeat this line a few times so it can sink in and maybe protect me...

many, not all or even most
many, not all or even most
many, not all or even most
many, not all or even most
many, not all or even most

[Starry Messenger]

18. It takes organizing, which is years of groundwork.

And there is nothing inherently bad about the kind of support he gets, but shaping a coalition to balance out a slender demographic is a science and an art.

Obama attracted new people to his campaign in 2008, but they trained them in community organizing approaches to spread out his support. The difference really shows. You can't just run on message and have an "If we build it, they will come," kind of campaign. You have to bring people there. You have to set the tone. You have to build message discipline.

Some people don't like hearing that because it sounds too "establishment" and not sexy, but it is the boring details that build support. I had to learn that too, and it is the kind of work I do, on a much smaller scale. I've seen it, it works.

To me, that is one of the lost opportunities of the Sanders campaign.

[Jackie Wilson Said]

22. The sad thing is Bernie the man really deserves a campaign and following like Barack had or has.

But he is also to blame for not organizing it correctly and especially for the almost all white beginnings, but to his defense, this was a spur of the moment thing.

In a short time he saw just how bad and corrupt things were getting, all it took was a little push.

If he loses, he will desperately want Hillary to win so he can use his new found power and support to "do the right thing"

[Gavile]

14. What are you insinuating here?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

15. See Starry Messenger's post above. Explains it perfectly!

[JustAnotherGen]

17. Don't respond to him again - blocking

[JI7]

20. the lower income working class whites aren't supporting sanders

His supporters are mostly college students and upper income whites.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. I thought upper income whites supported Hillary? Oh well. Learn something new.

And I think he even made the statement that one reason why he's losing is that "poor people don't vote," implying that if more did, he'd win.

[YoungDemCA]

21. It's economic anxiety about black and brown people being "lazy moochers" or "taking our jobs"

And at the heart of it is the fear that many white Americans have of losing the privileges that come with being a demographic majority - remember, whites will no longer be a majority in this country within a couple of decades. They are deathly afraid of losing their privileged status in comparison to "those people." That, IMO, is at the core of Trump's support.