Can the NFL really claim parity

[Doctor_J]

when Eli, Drew, Brady, and Aaron are in the same league as Curtis Painter, Caleb Hanie, Christian Ponder, and Sam Bradford? Very thin herd of SB-quality QBs. The league's attempt to make everyone playoff-eligible has hit the physical limit, it seems. Though Harbaugh has turned Alex Smith into a winner, that is the exception.

[WilliamPitt]

1. There is parity in terms of funding.

Parity in terms of coaches' ability to make good draft picks is another matter, one that's across the board. Look at the Patriots; we've been husbanding ten zillion draft picks for years, and our defense is still a casserole of no-name nonsense. Belichick had Clay Matthews in his hand one draft, but went instead with a guy who isn't even on the fucking team anymore. There are no parity rules that can fix being stupid at draft time..

[joeybee12]

2. The real problem, which you note, is the lack of decent QBs...

Has been for a few years now...

[Auggie]

3. More spread offenses being played by colleges?

[joeybee12]

5. Could be, or maybe it's just my perception...

Maybe good QBs have always been rare.

[Doctor_J]

11. It seems the QB pool has been watered down more than some other positions

Talent pool at linebacker, pass rusher, receiver, and RB seems to be at an all-time high. QB is, as you suggest, very difficult

[Doctor_J]

4. Yeah, it's bizarre

you have the big 6 (counting Peyton and Ben), then there is a layer of QBs who could lead a team to the SB under the right circumstances (Stafford, Cutler, maybe Schaub) and the rest seem to be journeymen (Palmer, Vick, Orton, Hasslebeck, Grossman), and the rest, who barely belong in the NFL. That leaves around 20 teams with sub-standard QBs. Like I said in the OP, the NFL likes to tout itself as the league where your team can win 2 games this year and contend next year, has reached the physical impediment to that goal - not enough good QBs. Newton seems to be the real deal - let's see which group he's in in 2014.

It's also very hard to judge coming in, IMO. Seriesly, if you had to choose, just from their college performance, among Brady, Roethlisberger, Bradford, Sanchez, and McCoy, the two with the 5 rings between them would probably be the last ones picked.

[joeybee12]

6. And Peyton, Ben and Tom are past their prime...

Still very good, but all are in the later half of their careers so the void will be even greater soon.

You're right about the rings...and Drew Brees got tossed around in his NFL career...no one wanted him, so there's also the problem of recognizing talent among the NFL teams/coaches.

[JonLP24]

7. I look at it differently than you do

For one, I can think of many QBs that are better than either Grossman or Hasslebeck. I think you name Hasslebeck based on past success. I like WR and RB stats because they are unit based, you have receptions, carries, and yards. QBs I look at YPA but I also look at interceptions, TDs, so there isn't one stat I look at. QB Rating isn't unit based so I don't pay much attention to it.

I see about 16-17 QBs who are solid. I look at whose over 7 and also how many interceptions they have thrown. Grossman and Palmer(though he is doing a great job of getting the ball down-field) have more INTs than TDs. Rivers has 19 but I would still put him in elite category considering recent success and his ability to get the ball downfield. I'd take often injured Kolb over Orton, Hasslebeck, and Grossman.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt

Also Roethlisberger was a terrific college QB, I really enjoyed watching him play and he was touted as being in the same class as the other 2 QBs chosen high in that draft, Manning & Rivers. McCoy wasn't highly touted going into the draft. You do have a point with Brady.

[Doctor_J]

10. Your post doesn't contradict mine

"16-17 who are solid"

that's about right. Then with 6 or so that are elite, that leaves almost 10 who are bad. Kolb may be marginally better than Orton or Hasslebeck, but I would lump them into the same general category, along with Fitzpatrick, Sanchez, Matt Moore, and so on. Rivers career numbers are pretty impressive, but with his supporting cast (good D, LT, Sproles, Turner, above avg receivers) the results have been only fair. Obviously Super Bowl rings aren't a perfect measure (Shaun King, Trent Dilfer) but I am just talking about being one of the leaders on a Super Bowl team. There just don't seem to be that many candidates. And of course it's completely far-fetched that this season's SB will pit Alex Smith vs. Joe Flacco.

I sort of like the passer rating stat. It seems to weight the different numbers about right, esp. int.

[JonLP24]

13. Based on the numbers I look at

(QB Rating also agrees)

Orton is better than Hasslebeck. Kolb is marginally better in QB rating, a half yard per attempt better than Orton. Matt Moore is having a considerably better season than either Sanchez or Matt Moore. When it comes to QB Rating Moore is just outside the top 10. Rivers to me is excellent with his 7.96 career YPA(Brady is 7.50), not many QBs have a number that high for a career. I'm looking at his passing stats, the D or the yards that LT got off of hand-offs don't factor into that.

[ProfessorGAC]

14. Really?

I think it greatly undervalues completion percentage and slightly so for yards per attempt. I think interceptions are overrated, because an interception of a 40 yard pass on 3rd down does no more damage than a punt. But, INT's kill a QB's rating.

If INT's are going to be highly rated, they should have another factor for INT's that result in the other team scoring on that next possession. (Or a defensive score.) Then the actual damage of an INT can be better judged.

Some risk taking QB's with good defenses really don't hurt the team that much with an intercepted 15 yard out at the opponents 35 yard lline. The other team may end up just having to punt it back anyway.

I think it needs a lot of weighting adjustment. I like the idea of indexing a series of stats, but i don't think they're doing QBR properly.
GAC

[hughee99]

15. We've all seen a QB hit his receiver right in the hands, only to have the receiver miss it

and it gets intercepted on a tip. We've also seen a QB make an awful throw that hits a DB right between the numbers and they drop it.

In this case, hitting your own receiver in the hands is MUCH worse for your QB rating than underthrowing a ball by 10 yards hand having a DB drop an easy pick. INT's in general aren't always a clear indication of a QB's ability, though I guess if you throw enough of them, it all balances out.

[ProfessorGAC]

17. Then We Clearly Agree

And i hadn't thought of your examples, but Cutler had a pick 6 this year on a ball that hit the receivers hands TWICE! In and out, reached for it, bounced off his hand and into the safety's arms. They won the game anyway, but that was the week when Tebow ended up with a higher rating than Cutler and they completed something like 60 and 30% of their passes, (Cutler higher) and the yards per attempt were something like 3 yards apart.

A flawed measurement if there ever was one.

I also do agree that REALLY bad quarterbacking will ultimately end up showing in the stat. But, even now, Tebow is ranked too high just because he doesn't throw INT's. Well, if you generally only throw the ball 12 times a game, you won't throw INT's.

I'll have to look but i thought INT's were rated based upon attempts between interceptions. Maybe not.
GAC

[hughee99]

18. We do.

QB rating is a very flawed statistic, but even the number of INT's can be deceptive when trying to evaluate QB's.

[marmar]

8. Vick a journeyman? No creo que es verdad.

nt

[Doctor_J]

9. Skill set - elite

results, mediocre

[trumad]

16. I think you accidentally put Vick on that list.

[Auggie]

12. Some guys just take longer to develop

Some need to have a system adapted for them rather than adapt to an existing system.

Their coaches have to be really good teachers.

Those who are not as physically gifted as others need to have the right mindset and mental maturity and work ethic.

All need to have an excellent surrounding cast of characters -- receivers, running backs, pass protectors, plus a solid defense.

It's damn hard to put that together. All these guys are in the same league but they operate under dozens of different variables. In other words, the talent may be there -- it's just not able to surface.