Mayweather vs Maidana II
On Saturday, Floyd Mayweather, Jr., defends his welterweight title in a rematch with Marcos Maidana. The scheduled 12-round bout, which takes place in Las Vegas, is being carried on Showtime pay-per-view. Mayweather won by majority decision in their first bout, in May of this year.
Older forum members will recall that before that first bout -- in which the odds were 11-to-1 for Floyd -- I had predicted here that it would be the toughest fight of Mayweather’s career. While most of the sport’s “experts” in the media were saying that Mayweather was taking an easy fight, I correctly pointed out that styles make fights, and that Maidana actually had a chance at pulling off an upset.
As it turned out, Maidana actually landed more punches in six of the twelve rounds in May. Floyd suffered the first cut of his career. One judge scored the bout a draw. The boxing community’s reaction to the bout motivated Mayweather to seek an immediate rematch with Maidana.
Recently, I discussed the up-coming bout with Showtime’s boxing analyst, Steve Farhood. I stated that Maidana is to Mayweather, what Basilio was to Robinson. Steve said that it is a good analogy, but noted Carmen was a great champion. Now, that is true -- Basilio ranks among the toughest men in the sport’s history. Yet, it was not technique that separated the Onion Farmer from others -- it was his mental and physical strength.
Almost everyone who has competed in the ring much has had the experience of fighting that guy who isn’t gifted in technique -- indeed, he does many things “wrong” -- but who is so strong and aggressive that you cannot fight your usual fight against him.
Now, Maidana had three loses before he fought Floyd. The first was a controversial split-decision, that most viewers believed he won. The other two were against tall men with long reaches (both have held titles). They were able to keep the smaller Maidana at arm’s length. But Maidana is as tall as Floyd, and has an almost equal reach. More, he entered the ring weighing 17 pounds more than Mayweather in their first bout.
Perhaps most importantly, Maidana joined with one of the sport’s best trainers. He has added a serious jab to Maidana’s offense. It is very similar to the powerful jab that allowed Mike Tyson to get inside on larger opponents. That jab allowed Maidana to defeat Adrian Broner, which earned him the first fight with Floyd.
Floyd is an outstanding counter-puncher. Thus, opponents from Oscar de la Hoya to Canelo Alveraz would become hesitant to throw punches by the middle rounds when they challenged Mayweather. But Maidana’s jab -- which he delivers above his shoulder’s height -- tucks his chin deep into that shoulder. When he brings it back, his chin remains protected. That is hard to counter consistently.
More, that jab allowed Marcos to cut the distance between him and Floyd, exactly as it did with Broner. Once inside, especially when Floyd’s back was to the ropes, Maidana was able to make it an ugly fight. And an ugly fight it was: Maidana landed numerous low blows and rabbit-punches, lifted his knee into Floyd’s groin, and butted; Mayweather responded by using his forearm, a few low blows, and rubbing the palm of his gloves on Maidana’s face.
Kenny Bayless will be the referee on Saturday, and he is the best in the business. Still, it is difficult to imagine this bout being free from fouls. Rather, Mayweather needs to keep the fight in the center of the ring to avoid the rough tactics of Marcos Maidana. That means that he will have to take the lead, throwing crisp combinations, and then moving to the side. In exchanges, he needs to get his shots off, both first and last. And when Maidana misses, Floyd needs to punish him. Easier said than done, of course, even for someone as gifted as Mayweather.
Maidana has had a longer, more focused training camp this time. He is prepared to fight for the full twelve rounds, at the pace he did for the first six in May. His jab will be essential. Look for him to mix that up, much as he did against Broner: single jabs, double-jabs, hooks off the jab, and most importantly, coming in under the jab and banging the body. The body attack is vital as far as preventing Floyd from moving for 12 rounds.
Hopefully, the outcome will not be decided by fouls -- such as a cut resulting from a butt. Yet, anything is possible. In my opinion, the “outside factor” most likely to influence the bout would be if Mayweather damages one (or both) of his hands in the fight. His hands have given him problems several times in his career. Floyd went into their first fight without any personal animosity towards Marcos; on Saturday, he’ll be seeking to punish Maidana. That means sitting down on his punches more, and old hands do not hold up so well that way.
Enjoy the fight, and may the best man win.
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