For back-to-back seasons Indianapolis outperformed their efficiency (higher expected W-L based on average statistics on both sides of the ball). He has a very high number of comeback victories for a QB this new (he threw a late interception in a prime time match-up which leads to short-term overreaction)
A statistic he isn't impressive in is yards per pass attempt and and adjusted YPA but the Colts ask him to throw the ball A LOT. He actually is carrying the team on his shoulders.
He has outperformed Manning in comparison to early years
Luck's numbers in the counting statistics -- WPA, EPA, passing yards -- have been superior to Manning's career averages in four to five of his first eight starts, a tremendous feat for the rookie. His Week 9 performance was particularly notable -- his 0.84 WPA, 23.1 EPA and 438 yards all rank in the top 10 percent of Manning's career games, with the WPA and yards ranking fifth and fourth respectively. Despite the low completion percentages, Luck is only lagging a short bit behind Manning in the efficiency statistics. His 0.18 EPA/P is just seven points off Manning's career mark. His AYPA lags a full yard below Manning's but is largely dragged down by two poor performances (losses to Kansas City and New Jersey). And although Manning had a huge workload for a quarterback -- he led the NFL in attempts twice in his career and was routinely over 500 per season -- Luck's workload has been high even by Manning's standards:
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/11/andrew-luck-thriving-in-manning-shadow.html
RG3 clearly had the best year of any rookie QB but One Point Favoring Luck over RG3
Arguments on the Rookie of the Year seem to be favoring Robert Griffin III over Andrew Luck at this point in the season. Griffin's performance has been spectacular, certainly -- he's thrown for 2,660 yards and 17 touchdowns against just four interceptions. His 714 rushing yards on 105 carries translates to a league-leading 6.8 yards per carry, and his 6.5 AYPA is tied with Peyton Manning for third in the league.
Luck runs well, but nowhere near Griffin's standard -- he owns 216 yards on 44 rushes. Luck has thrown for over 900 more yards than Griffin and matched Grffin's 17 touchdowns. But his AYPA is a middling 5.1, 21st in the league and tied with Andy Dalton. Griffin has a 23-point EPA advantage and a 0.09 point per play advantage.
But for those who prefer to use more context-neutral stats -- as opposed to WPA, which has Luck second in the league at 4.32, over 1.5 wins better than Griffin -- there is one point in Luck's favor: the sheer volume of his output.
Washinton's' offense is obviously focused on Griffin, but the team uses the run liberally, rushing over 22 times per game (not counting Griffin's rushes). Alfred Morris carries the bulk of the load, with 1,106 yards (4.8 per carry) on the season. The Colts have rushed just 22 times per game themselves, but they've also run 117 more plays (just under 10 per game) more than Washington, and those extra plays are all directed through Luck and the passing game. All told, Luck has thrown 14 more passes per game than Griffin.
Basketball analysts have picked up on an essential point of the game: as usage rate -- the burden of the offense -- increases, efficiency tends to decrease. Steve Kerr was a more efficient scorer for the 1995 Chicago Bulls -- he shot 52.4 percent from three -- but there was no way he could take 22 shots per game with any efficiency. Jordan continued to excel even when confronted with the most difficult shots -- under duress, at the end of the shot clock, or both.
There's a similar relationship with quarterbacks. The idea that certain quarterbacks can only handle 20-to-25 throws per game with efficiency holds up in the data. Observe, the average yards per attempt given a certain attempt total (data includes all games since 2009):
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/12/one-point-favoring-andrew-luck-over.html
To summarize his YPA actually increased w/ more passing attempts when usually the opposite occurs (Manning led the league in passing attempts but was 2nd behind Nick Foles in YPA (he had much fewer attempts))
A lot of quarterback analysis is subjective anyways. I remember when Harbaugh said Luck was the best QB in college football when he was a freshman before conference play even began. ESPN people scoffed and said, "even Tebow?" It put my on alert, I started paying close attention and he was already better than Barkley and Jake Locker. Many people were shocked they defeated USC but I was very aware of the likelihood. He is progressing as well as you can expect especially with the workload he has been required to. He is very important to the Colts as far as wins or losses are concerned. `
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