Re: Pats, the only real question left is have they been cheating like this consistently for years.

[DanTex]

It looks likely. It doesn't seem like a thing you do just once. They had a guy nicknamed "the deflator" FFS. Beyond that, the circumstantial evidence is pretty strong. For example, their fumble rate went way down as soon as they started using their own balls. This chart is pretty telling -- Lance Armstrong didn't even win the Tour de France by that much. Kinda crazy that this kind of brazen cheating has been going on in the NFL, for so long. Doping, yeah, but actually tampering with the balls is surprising.



http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-mysteriously-became-fumble-proof-in-2007

[trotsky]

1. Yup, I remember when that analysis was published.

Oh the wailing.

Or the desperate excuses - "Belichick has no tolerance for fumblers!" Well neither does any other NFL coach. Geez.

[Capt. Obvious]

2. Why stop there?

[KamaAina]

3. Another real question is how every ref in the league missed it consistently for years.

They handle the ball after every play, for Pete's sake!

[DanTex]

4. Yes, that is a real question. No idea.

[Capt. Obvious]

5. Reminder: Those Stats About Patriots Fumbles Are A Mess

http://regressing.deadspin.com/why-those-statistics-about-the-patriots-fumbles-are-mos-1681805710/1702950988/+kylenw

[DanTex]

6. There are some good points made there, but it certainly doesn't refute

the conclusion that the Patriots fumble statistics improved dramatically after 2006.

The critique that fumbles per play, rather than plays per fumble, should be used to calculate statistical significance is correct. But, as the author points out, the statistical significance is still 0.00336, or about 1-in-300, which would easily be considered statistically significant in a scientific context. And the Q-Q plot he draws shows pretty clearly that the Patriots are an outlier.

Also, someone at five-thirty-eight re-ran the fumble numbers and did their own analysis, and again found a statistically significant result.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/

And, particularly now, when we have clear evidence that the Patriots did intentionally deflate balls to get an advantage, the most likely conclusion is that they have been doing it all along, despite the fact that the statistical significance of the numbers is "only" 300-to-1.

[Capt. Obvious]

7. The Colts too

[DanTex]

8. The Colts aren't an outlier. The numbers aren't nearly as dramatic.

Here's the Q-Q plot, using fumbles per play rather than plays per fumble as the critique suggested.



Assuming that the Colts were the second dot on that chart (are they?), you can see there's nothing particularly outlierish about it.

And then there's the fact that there is clear evidence that the Patriots did actually cheat, unlike the Colts. Sure, they may have cheated too, just not nearly as much as the Pats, and also not as carelessly. But there's not any real reason to believe that.

[Capt. Obvious]

9. .

At this point, an intelligent reader should pick up on one issue with the author's metric. The team sharing the 'suspiciously high plays-per-fumble rate' mantle with the Patriots is none other than the Peyton Manning quarterbacked Indianapolis Colts.

Why does this matter?

Because, Manning and Brady are generally among the quickest in football at getting rid of the ball when dropping back to throw. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Manning led the league in time-to-throw in 2014, at a lightning-quick 2.24 seconds. Brady finished 3rd in 2014, and also ranked 3rd, 1st, and 4th between 2011 and 2013 (PFF stats only go as far back as 2011). Even better, Brady also posted the league's lowest sack-per-dropback rate in 2014.

It's not a great strategy to penalize Brady and the Patriots for a lack of fumbles when there was a lower chance of fumbling to begin with, based on the team's play-calling and personnel that yield quick throws and incompletions, as well as fewer sacks.

[trumad]

10. It's a hell of a lot easier to hold on to a deflated football---

You would agree with that Captain?

[Capt. Obvious]

11. It is for me

I have small hands.

[DanTex]

12. Which completely misses the point.

I'm not the only person who realizes that the critique, while it brings up some good points, makes many if not more of the same mistakes that it complains about, most specifically starting with a conclusion and then cherry picking the data to support it.

The Colts didn't improve dramatically after 2006. In fact, they went from being ranked 2nd in fumbles per play for 2000-2006 to fourth in 2007-2014 (after the Pats, Falcons, and Saints). Which means, it turns out that the Colts aren't even the second dot on that Q-Q plot, they are the fourth one. The Pats, on the other hand, went from being a middle-of-the-road team in terms of ball protection, to being a statistically significant outlier. And all this while playing outdoors in cold weather (the Colts have a dome).

And, of course, the most important thing is that there is hard evidence that the Pats actually did cheat, to go along with the statistically significant changes in key statistics. Maybe the Colts cheated also, but there isn't any evidence of that, and the hypothetical cheating didn't make any statistically significant effect on the data.

[R B Garr]

13. Yes, gaining the advantage by a now proven pattern and practice

of manipulating the footballs to Brady's personal preference outside the established NFL's rules is really the main point. It's nothing more than desperation to try and drag this into a numbers game of irrelevant minutia about what year vs. what game had the more impact on fumbles and is not the point. The fact is that it happened at all and was obviously done to gain an advantage over opponents.

Here's just one comment I found on another message board that summed up the overall impact of Brady's cheating, which raises the question(s) of whether his stats should even be considered as Hall of Fame material since they are so bastardized:

"It doesn't matter if you beat them by 100, the fact is he got caught cheating. Now it explains why Brady can throw 400 yds in fox burrow with 50 mph winds. Anyway he should be suspended for a yr. plain and simple!!!"

Between this and Spygate, some serious sanctions should be coming against the Patriots. It's also curious how the Patriots knew the exact play of the Seahawks in the Super Bowl -- Spygate? UGH, so far the Patriots have been rewarded for the cheating and it has been worthwhile for them -- nothing to lose. This whole mess makes a mockery of the whole NFL and should not be tolerated.

[DanTex]

14. It does make a mockery of the whole NFL.

The other thing that's absurd is that the balls don't stay in the possession of the referee crew from the moment that they are verified to the time that the game starts.

The actual right thing to do at this point would I think be to void the 2015 Super Bowl victory. The fact that they probably would have been able to win the AFC game without cheating is completely irrelevant. They did cheat. And, obviously, that wasn't the only game where it happened.

[R B Garr]

15. "Has this, however, detracted from your joy of winning the Super Bowl?"

That was a question from Jim Gray last night to Brady in Salem, MA, to which Brady answered, "Absolutely not." Well, there you have it, and who would think he would answer otherwise. The cheating was a calculated risk aimed solely at providing him Glory and the price was obviously worth it as he has been rewarded for it. No amount of slaps on the wrist are a problem compared with his exaltation to which he smugly and arrogantly takes claim without acknowledging how he bastardized the leagues rules and thereby his own stats to obtain his Crown. The league has let him and the Patriots make fools of other teams and their personnel by allowing them to taint the rules in their favor. This is absolutely sickening.

The whole league is full of motivated and talented young men who would like to gain some recognition for themselves, as well. To see Brady make fools of them in his pursuits gained through cheating is obviously becoming intolerable for some. There are rules against roughing the quarterback, for instance, which benefit Tom, yet what if some took their 300-pound frames to his skull when he's down after a sack -- I bet he sure likes the leagues rules then!

Then you have the absolutely laughable statement from the team owner, Kraft. LOL, this clown actually said he wants an apology for his low-level employees who were exposed collaborating about deflating Tom's balls to his desired pressure, and the creepy owner says He is owed an apology?! How absurd can these people be?? It's really amazing the level of creepy arrogance. They live in their own bubble and they are rewarded for it. LAUGHABLE.