Melt ponds successfully forecast Arctic sea-ice extent.

[dipsydoodle]

A UK technique for forecasting the extent of summer sea ice in the Arctic proved its worth this week.

Reading researchers announced in June that the floes would cover 5.4 million sq km come the end of the melt season - give or take half a million.

US agencies called the actual number on Monday as 5.02 million sq km.

The British team's modelled forecast hangs on the amount of water ponding on top of the ice as it warms in the spring.

These ponds have been shown to promote melting.

Projecting the behaviour of seasonal ice in the Arctic has been a difficult problem.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29331969

[4139]

1. They have a wide range for calling success, plus or minus 10%...

.... If they are in the range 3 years in a row then it will be success

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. For comparison, here's a range of forecasts from June - they are 'CPOM/Schroeder et al'

Unfortunately Larry Hamilton has been too busy to conduct a poll on the ASIB this year and submit it to the SIO. I do see though that the WUWT poll has resulted in a very high number this year, albeit not the highest. Last year their community's prediction turned out to be lower (!) than the final September average, which goes to show how much of an outlier 2013 was extent-wise. Their confidence in further recoveries must have been boosted by the previous melting season, as well as by the promotion of this one model run by Joe Bastardi (unfortunately he doesn't explain how the model comes to its conclusions) that predicts September extent levels not seen since almost 15 years.

Well, everything is possible in the Arctic, as 2012 and 2013 have shown. Which means the opposite is also true: If sea ice volume remains low, and a melting season has a start with lots of melt ponding, followed by weather that is conducive to melt and transport, ice-free conditions could even be in the cards this decade.

Either way, there has been a poll on the ASIF too (followed by a new poll next month) and the average from 95 votes predicts a September sea ice extent of 3.95 million km2, which of course would be among the lowest on the SIO chart. I've put the spreadsheet with the poll results on Google Drive, in case I've made a mistake.

I've said it before: maybe we should take an average of the WUWT and ASIF polls (5 million km2) to balance out excessive denialism and alarmism, and submit that to the SIO? :-P

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/06/search-2014-sea-ice-outlook-june-report.html

And it turns out that last tongue-in-cheek method, of averaging the pessimistic Arctic Sea Ice Forum, and the deniers at Watts Up With That, would have been right on the money.